Libya prepares for the great battle
War drums are sounding in Libya. Everything points to a decisive battle for the control of two geostrategic enclaves in the country, currently under the control of the National Liberation Army (LNA), commanded by Marshal Khalifa Haftar and supported by Egypt, France, Russia and the Arab sphere headed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These are Sirte, to the north of the territory and rich in oil, and Al-Jufra, in the centre, where what is considered Libya's largest airbase is located, which the rival faction, the Government of National Unity (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj and supported by Turkey, Qatar and Italy, aspires to conquer.
The fighting is expected to erupt first in Sirte, and then move on to Al-Jufra. In fact, there has been a major operation this Wednesday to transfer mercenaries, mostly Syrian, financed by Ankara and Doha to the front lines in Sirte. According to General Khaled Al-Mahjoub of the LNA, the Eurasian nation has mobilized about 10,000 militia in the Sirte area, as Sky News Arabia has learned. It should be recalled at this point that Turkey has sent more than 16,000 fighters to Libya to support the GNA, according to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights (SOHR).
In the previous hours, it has also been recorded how Turkish drones operating in the North African country have attacked the local water supply, bombing the artificial river channels near the town of Al-Shweref. This could be an indication of what the ANG and Ankara are trying to achieve: to lay siege to the area, so that the only option left for the GNA is to hand it over to the rival side.
Similarly, as reported by Al-Hadath, Turkey has brought heavy weapons to the front lines in Sirte in recent days, a move that has been accompanied by visits by Turkish officials to nearby areas of the town, where Ankara would be setting up its mercenary battalions along with the GNA.
For his part, the spokesman for the Haftar Army, Ahmed al-Mismari, has already confirmed that "in the next few hours there will be a great battle in Sirte and Al-Jufra", although various analysts, such as Yusuf Erim of TRT World, assure that the offensive by Sarraj's forces will still take a few days, although it will take place before the end of this month of July.
As for its allies, it should be noted that Russia has begun to withdraw its Wagner Group mercenaries from both Sirte and Al-Jufra, a decision whose motivation is still unknown, although it could be related to the agreement in which Moscow was working with Ankara on an immediate ceasefire and the sharing of spheres of influence. However, it is also not clear that Russia will abandon its ally, the LNA, to achieve this pact with Turkey.
Another partner from Haftar, Egypt, was authorised on Tuesday to intervene militarily in Libya by the Tobruk Parliament, led by Eagle Saleh and affiliated to the LNA. Cairo considers that both Sirte and Al-Jufra are "red lines" that if the ANG, together with the Eurasian nation, were to cross them, it would provoke their direct entry into the Libyan conflict. Therefore, and in an attempt to dissuade them, it has carried out in the last week massive military exercises, called "Decisive 2020" in the western strip of the Egyptian territory, bordering with Libya.
However, some analysts agree that the country led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will not intervene in the war on its own, since it is aware that its military capacity is inferior to that of Turkey - and it is more rusty, since Ankara has launched other recent military operations outside its borders, such as against the Kurds in Iraq, while Cairo has only carried out military missions within its territory and with contested success - and that, to win the battle, it would need, in addition to the ranks of the LNA, the participation of Haftar's other allies, such as France or the United Arab Emirates, but these two countries have never shown themselves to be going to war in Libya. "Egypt continues with harsh rhetoric, but no action. Al-Sisi will not risk humiliating its army, which would have a negative internal impact," explains Yusuf Erim.
Erim warns, in this sense, that the chances of the LNA claiming victory have been reduced, firstly, by the withdrawal of the Russian mercenaries and, secondly, by the failure of French diplomatic pressure on the EU to condemn Turkey's conduct in Libya and to impose new sanctions, something that Paris failed to achieve at the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday 13 July. "Al-Sisi will not want to be left without a chair when the music stops playing. It's more profitable for Cairo to talk about Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) with Ankara than to confront them in Libya," the expert predicts, referring to the fact that Egypt might be interested in reaching some kind of agreement with Turkey on the delimitation of maritime borders for the distribution of EEZs in which to exploit the energy resources offered by the eastern Mediterranean off the Libyan coast.
As has been pointed out from Al-Hadath, Turkish officials have been travelling to Libya in recent hours to learn first-hand about preparations for the battle over Sirte. The delegation is led by the head of foreign operations in foreign intelligence, according to analyst José Luis Mansilla (@Sahel_Intel). According to Al-Arabiya, Turkish military engineers have also moved into the vicinity of Sirte and planes from the Eurasian nation have flown over the area to obtain a photograph of the area and the enemy positions of the LNA.
In the same way, this Wednesday it was also known that an Italian delegation led by the Minister of the Interior, Luciana Lamorgese, and the head of Intelligence, has arrived in Libya, predictably to hold meetings also with its ally, the GNA, in view of the imminent battle.
However, it should be noted that Rome has begun to work with Paris - which supports the rival LNA side - for the "stabilisation of Libya" and to end "foreign interference". The French ambassador to Italy, Christian Masset, confirmed on Wednesday that the two administrations are working together "for peace in Libya and the protection of pluralism", in an unprecedented gesture, given that until now France and Italy had been in conflicting positions in the Libyan conflict, being one of the causes of the fragmentation of the European position on the conflict and the consequent inaction of the Brussels authorities. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to think that Lamorgese's visit to Libya could be oriented in this direction, in the search for a principle of understanding between the two factions, becoming a kind of mediator, as other countries have been before, such as Algeria or Germany.
In any case, it will be necessary to observe carefully how events develop in the next few hours in the North African country, because they could decide the future of what is now considered a failed state.
