Libya's long road to peace

Libya is now in the ninth year of the conflict that followed the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. The death of the dictator has not brought democracy to the North African nation. What was once the hopes of the population for a new historical period has now become a reality after years of war. The armed groups became strong and now two powers claim to have the legitimacy to rule the country. In Tripoli is the internationally recognized government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj. In the east of the country, the troops of Marshal Jalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army, have become strong. To analyze this complex scenario, Casa Árabe has organized a virtual session this Tuesday with three specialists.

"Many citizens perceive that the situation with Gaddafi was better than what they are currently experiencing", said Juan Garrigues, Deputy Director of the Dialogue Advisory Group (DAG), an organisation that facilitates political dialogue in countries in conflict, and a CIDOB researcher during his address. Garrigues pointed out that the positions of the two sides are very polarised, and he predicted that it will be difficult to reach any kind of agreement. "We will have to wait until one of the parties wears itself out and does not want to continue fighting. Despite the devastating effects of the war, no one in the west wants to negotiate with Haftar," Garrigues said. 

The most vulnerable to the situation that Libya is experiencing is the population. "Many times we only talk about war, agreements and soldiers, but civilians are having the worst time. Libya has made no economic progress since 2011. In 2014 there was a 24% contraction of the economy. There is no infrastructure or public services to serve the population. There is a lack of a state structure to fill the gaps," lamented Francisco de Miguel Álvarez, Spain's ambassador to Libya. In this context, the deterioration of security has been brutal, kidnappings and insecurity are permanent. "In my travels around the country I have seen the Libyan cities sleeping, stagnant, as if life was at a standstill. There is a lack of initiatives to get the economy going," said De Miguel. 

The ambassador pointed out that the nation is moving further and further away from its relations with the rest of the countries of the Mediterranean, a trend that already occurred in the time of Gaddafi. "The previous regime focused on spreading the revolution in Africa and moved away from Europe. For De Miguel, the only possible way forward right now is for there to be a truce in the war. A consensus among the military forces is needed to put an end to this instability," he recommended. 

The regional context of Libya does not help either. The region is a powder keg because of the presence of numerous terrorist groups in the Sahel. Libya has also become the epicentre of immigration to Europe. "Syrians, Eritreans, Sudanese... are going to Libya and hoping to reach Europe thanks to the power vacuum and the lack of controls in Libya," explained Barah Mikail, director of the Stractegia consulting firm and professor of international security at St Louis University in Madrid. 

The Libyan conflict has been internationalized due to the support of different countries to Fayez al-Sarraj and Khalifa Haftar. Italy began by supporting the Tripoli government, but has now turned eastwards and is backing Marshal Haftar, who also receives assistance from the Arab Emirates and Egypt. Al-Sarraj has the backing of Turkey, which has managed to change the course of the war by intervening in favour of the west, and also of Qatar. It is also the internationally recognised government. 

"All these actors are providing political support in exchange for future economic benefits. Turkey has already signed exploitation agreements in some areas of the Mediterranean," explained Barah Mikail. The European Union does not have a defined common position, it even has internal divisions, as Italy supports Tripoli and France has opted, although not clearly, for Marshal Haftar. "The EU should accept that both sides have legitimacy and should work to bring positions closer together. The main problem in reaching peace is that neither side accepts its interlocutors," said Francisco de Miguel, Spain's ambassador to Libya.

The tensions in Libya are very high. The divisions between the different powers are numerous and the road to peace and stabilisation still seems very far away, said Juan Garrigues. "Turkey's intervention cannot be understood without economic interests, although their intervention is not short term, they are thinking long term," said Garrigues. 

To get out of the conflict, the Spanish ambassador in Libya recommends recognizing both legitimacy in the country. "Spain's position is not to opt for one or the other. Both have a legitimate basis. An agreement between the two must be organised that will lead to elections", recommended Francisco de Miguel.

"One of the failures of the transition in Libya has been not to give enough importance to the armed groups in the country, that is a great challenge," said Garrigues, who called for the establishment of an army and a police force to provide unity to the country. He has also called for members of the armed groups to be able to return to civilian life. 

Barah Mikail said the future of Libya lay in active UN engagement and understanding between all groups in the country. "We need to know who the leaders are, who are responsible. We also need to develop strong armed forces to protect Libya in the future," he concluded.