Low turnout threatens Iran's presidential election
The Islamic Republic of Iran opens the polls this Friday to elect a new president following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last May along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
Iranian citizens have a choice of four candidates after the withdrawal of Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani and Vice President Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi. Both have withdrawn from the electoral race in order to concentrate votes around the most likely candidates.
Ghazizadeh Hashemi withdrew his candidacy and urged other candidates to do the same "so that the front of the revolution is strengthened", as reported by the state-run IRNA news agency. Raisi's vice president also ran in the 2021 presidential election and received around one million votes, coming in last place.
For his part, Zakani withdrew in order to "block the formation of a third administration" of former president Hassan Rouhani, referring to reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian. The Tehran mayor also withdrew from the 2021 elections, which Raisi won.
Following the withdrawal of Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Zakani, the hardliners who remain are Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of parliament and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who served for four years in Khamenei's office.
The only reformist is Massoud Pezeshkian, a theocratic regime loyalist who advocates improved relations with the West, social liberalisation and political pluralism. Pezeshkian is supported by former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who secured the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers during Hasan Rohani's administration.
The fourth candidate is Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a former justice minister under Rohani.
"There is only one reformist and two conservatives with a chance. So the key will be political participation," explains analyst Daniel Bashandeh, who does not rule out a second round.
If none of the candidates obtains at least 50% of the vote, a run-off between the two presidential hopefuls with the most votes will be held on the first Friday after the election result is declared.
Khamenei will continue to have the final say
These elections are not expected to bring about significant changes in the nation, as major decisions are made by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has maintained his decision not to endorse any female candidates or those who advocate radical regime change.
Amid strong social unrest and predictions of a low turnout, Khamenei has called for a "maximum" turnout to "defeat the enemy", also sending a message to the reformist candidate, Pezeshkian. According to the supreme leader, anyone who believes that "all roads to progress" come from the United States should not be supported.
"Some politicians in our country believe that they must bow down to this or that power, and that it is impossible to make progress without attaching themselves to known countries and powers," Khamenei said during a speech on the occasion of a Shiite holiday. "Such people cannot govern the country well," Khamenei said, amid cries of "Death to America, death to Israel".
Abstention as a form of protest
These elections are marked by deep social unrest due to the dire economic situation and lack of freedoms, particularly after the assassination of Mahsa Amini in 2022 and the subsequent demonstrations that were brutally suppressed by the security forces.
"These are the elections after the Mahsa Amini protests. The candidates have not listened to the protesters, hence the low turnout as a sign of protest against the Islamic regime," Bashandeh points out.
Voter turnout has plummeted over the past four years with a largely young population dissatisfied with political and social restrictions. Only 48% of voters participated in the last presidential election in 2021, while turnout in the parliamentary elections three months ago reached an all-time low of 41%.
Abroad, exiled Iranians have called for protests in front of the regime's embassies calling for an election boycott. On the other hand, on social networks they have mobilised under the hashtag #ElectionCircus, denouncing that these elections will not bring major changes and will only perpetuate the current system.