Lucas Martín: “Estados Unidos habría convencido a Marruecos para suministrar carros de combate T-72 a Ucrania”
In the latest episode of "De cara al mundo", on Onda Madrid, we had the participation of Lucas Martín, international analyst, who, as he does every Friday, analysed the developments and the situation in Ukraine, especially with the imminent sending of Iranian missiles to Russian forces and US Patriot missiles to Ukrainian forces.
You were telling me that there is news that Morocco may send battle tanks it was modernising in the Czech Republic to Ukraine.
Yes, there is already news that the United States has convinced Morocco to supply T-72 tank replacement parts to Ukraine. This is important because until now Rabat has maintained a somewhat ambiguous position, especially in some of the votes that have taken place in the United Nations.
It seems that this supply of replacement parts is being transformed into the possibility that the Moroccan T-72s, which are being modernised at a company in the Czech Republic, will be supplied directly to Ukraine, the complete tank. This is happening, as has happened in other countries, in exchange for the United States compensating Morocco by sending some other type of tank, such as the M1 Abrams, which Rabat has recently been acquiring.
Speaking of military issues, what justifies the possible US shipment of Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine is that Russia is receiving Iranian missiles.
This is very interesting because sending Patriot missiles, which is a fairly effective and specialised airborne anti-missile system, was a possibility that was practically ruled out. About a fortnight ago it was said that Germany might send a battery of these systems within a few months, but for the past few days it has been said that the delivery of multiple battery systems by the United States is practically imminent. It has also been reported that Ukrainian personnel have been training in the United States in the operation of these systems.
This obviously has to be motivated by the imminent shipment, not of drones, but of Iranian missiles to Russia. That seemed to have been put on hold for a while. In fact, I didn't think it was going to happen, but apparently it must be imminent and that has accelerated the supply of these systems so that Ukraine can defend itself against Iranian missiles that are likely to be of the Sabah type with a range of 300 and 800 kilometres.
There is talk of Ukrainian offensives in one place, Russian offensives in another. What information and what kind of analysis can we make where the low temperatures condition these kinds of movements?
Yes, obviously, the weather right now is conditioning all the movements and here the quality of the team is very important, not only at a general level, but also the quality of the individual fighter.
We are in a holding pattern because both contenders need some kind of media victory that they can sell to their receptive populations, especially Russia. And I think this is where the Kremlin's ongoing attempt to take Bakhmut can be framed. Successfully recapturing the city would be something they could sell as a victory. In fact, it seems that Wagner units are being relieved in Bakhmut and regular units are starting to play a major role, which is significant.
Ukraine is testing the front and what makes the most sense is the possible offensive that we all expect in the area of Zaporiyia towards Meritopol. Not towards the city specifically, but towards the railway junction just to the north, because that would cut off the main Russian supply line that supplies the entire Kherson Oblast that is still in their power. And that would be, in my view, not an end to the war, but a death blow to this invasion.
And in the north, what about Belarus and Lukashenko?
This is a repetitive story. At the beginning of the war Russian units crossed the Belarusian border into Kiev. Right now, there is troop movement in the area, Lukashenko has once again put his army on alert, but I frame all this as a diversionary manoeuvre to force Kiev to always have its units distracted covering that front, but Belarus is not going to participate in the war.
Lukashenko's position is very weak and he has strong opposition even within his own army, and that would surely provoke a civil war and create a major problem for the Kremlin. Russia is also using Belarus as a training camp, because they don't have the capacity to train all the 300,000 people they mobilised at the time. Belarus is also supplying material that Russia is losing due to its lack of capacity to replace it through its own manufacture.
Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra
