Macron persuades Mohammed bin Salman to balance the energy market

Accustomed to the effusive greetings and handshakes, ear-to-ear smiles and repetitive pats on the back and shoulders whenever he receives a political leader, an unmistakable sign of power, Macron reserved his characteristic courtesy in front of the cameras on this occasion. The person getting out of the car parked at the entrance to the headquarters of the Presidency of the Republic, whom he had invited to a "working dinner" at the Elysée, was not a leader like any other, but a leader still under fire for the murder of the journalist critical of the Riyadh regime, Jamal Khassoghi. 

The conjuncture is pressing. The emerging energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is forcing Europe to change its model at breakneck speed, to look for new partners and supply routes for the winter. There is no time for other approaches that are not aimed at finding a solution; it is time to practice 'realpolitik', as the French prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, put it. This seems to be the approach of the Elysée, but also of its European partners and the Commission itself, which a fortnight ago concluded an energy agreement with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev. 

Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, stepped upright onto the red carpet leading into the presidential residence. The vehicle in which he travelled shortened distances to speed up the process, nothing like the kilometre-long walk of Israel's interim prime minister, Yair Lapid, who walked with a complicit expression until he embraced Macron a few weeks ago. Nor was it a state visit in the usual sense, but a low-profile face-to-face meeting, which explains why they did not appear before the media at the end of the conversation.

The Elysée's label, however, is not conclusive. The meeting on Thursday night was crucial given the geopolitical context, in order to exchange favours and interests on the new game board. Macron landed in Paris after concluding his tour of several West African countries to reclaim the region from the clutches of the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner group; MBS did the same after a two-day trip to Athens, where he met with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to conclude a battery of commercial deals, mostly related to energy. 

However, they were not alone at the Elysée, but were accompanied by several members of their respective cabinets, the strong men of their executives: the ministers of energy and foreign affairs, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Prince Faisal bin Farhan, on the Riyadh side, and the heads of economy and foreign affairs, Bruno Le Maire and Catherine Colonna, on the Paris side. According to local media, the content of the negotiations revolved around the stabilisation of the oil market, where Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role as the visible head of OPEC, and the reactivation of the nuclear agreement, on which France is directly involved at the negotiating table in Vienna. 

OPEC+, the group of oil producers that controls around 70% of the market and sets the level of supply, approved increasing production despite Russia's refusal by 216,000 barrels per day, following pressure from buyers, in addition to the 432,000 barrels of oil per day set in previous months. However, this increase in supply does not seem to have satisfied demand, i.e. it has not been effective in reassuring European and Western markets as a whole, especially as a turbulent period marked by the Kremlin's gas cuts approaches. Saudi Arabia could use its influence to stabilise markets.

In return, France and its Western allies can materialise Saudi Arabia's demands in the final text of the Iran nuclear deal. The Biden administration has toughened its rhetoric towards the ayatollahs' regime, but maintains its intention to resume the deal, as does the Elysée. The reissue of the JCPOA hangs in the balance, although it remains feasible. One blames the other and no one is giving in. In this scenario, Riyadh would be willing to back the agreement, but with guarantees that Iran, its regional nemesis, will not be able to develop nuclear weapons.