Macron promotes dialogue between Moscow and Washington as fighting in Donbas escalates

Amid the serious events that have been unfolding over the past few days in Donbas, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden have agreed to participate "in principle" in a summit at the request of French leader Emmanuel Macron, who proposed the meeting to address "security and strategic stability in Europe". According to a communiqué from the Elysée, the content of the meeting will be worked out by the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, during their meeting on 24 February. However, the note also specifies that the summit can only take place "if Russia does not invade Ukraine".  

In this way, dialogue continues to be advocated, although, on the other hand, warnings from the West to Moscow are also maintained. In the United States, the discourse prevails, marked by strong warnings of Russian aggression. Washington believes Putin is "continuing" preparations to launch "a large-scale attack on Ukraine very soon". The Biden administration had previously claimed that Russia would attack its western neighbour last week, and even provided details to the media of what such an invasion, including bombing raids on Kiev, would look like.

The same is true on the other side of the Atlantic. London even speaks directly of a "bloody and protracted" armed conflict. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed that Moscow is planning "the biggest war since 1945" through a "violent invasion" of Ukraine. However, the prime minister says that in this case Western countries would respond strongly.

"I think what he (Putin) wants to see is a rollback of NATO, and he will see exactly the opposite," Johnson said during an interview with the BBC. He also explained that in response to Russian military action on the Ukrainian border, London was moving more troops to Estonia, Poland and Romania.

"If you think you're going to get less NATO you're totally wrong, you're going to get more NATO," he added, reiterating the words of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said this weekend at the Munich Security Conference that, "if the Kremlin wants less NATO on its borders, you're only going to get more NATO".

On the other hand, EU leaders are more cautious about the crisis in Ukraine than their Anglo-Saxon partners. Instead of talking about 'war', Brussels is referring to economic restrictions, the main threat to Moscow in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. "If there is further military aggression, we will react with massive sanctions, and the cost to Russia will be severe", said the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. However, he also admitted that such a decision would come at a cost to Europeans.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, agrees with Michel and stresses "high costs and serious consequences for Moscow's economic interests". She goes further and threatens to isolate Russia from the international market, which, according to von der Leyen, would hinder the country's "modernisation". 

Within the continent, however, there are differing views on the crisis. Czech President Milos Zeman, who dismissed US intelligence reports of an invasion of Ukraine as a "blunder", believes that Putin has no plans to attack his neighbour, arguing that such aggression would bring Russia "more harm than good".

Zeman is not alone in swimming against the tide of the EU and NATO leadership.  In late January, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic provoked controversy after announcing that in the event of conflict he would withdraw "every last Croatian soldier" from the area. In the wake of the uproar, the foreign minister had to come to Milanovic's defence, assuring that the country remains and will remain "a loyal member of NATO".

Since last week, the OSCE has reported an increase in ceasefire violations in the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, escalating both the conflict that has existed since 2014 and the ongoing crisis between Russia and NATO. The Ukrainian army and pro-Russian forces accuse each other of shell attacks, as well as casualties on each side. 

Kiev has announced the death of two of its soldiers after receiving "fatal shrapnel wounds". Meanwhile, the authorities in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic have reported the deaths of a fighter and a civilian on his way to work. Last Friday, the separatist republic's leader, Denis Pushilin, ordered a mass evacuation of children, women and elderly people to Russia's Rostov region. Shortly afterwards, Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic, followed in Pushilin's footsteps and also ordered the transfer of the population to Russia.

According to data provided by the governor of the Rostov region, Vasily Golubev, and reported by TASS, more than 6,700 citizens of Donetsk and Lugansk, including 2,904 children, have arrived in the area. Faced with this challenge to the region, Golubev has decreed a state of emergency and asked for support from Moscow, where they approved to pay an allowance for each citizen.

As civilians made their way to Rostov over the weekend, Donetsk militias reported an explosion near the government headquarters. It was later confirmed that the attack was carried out by a car bomb. For this reason, and fearing an offensive by Ukrainian forces, the pro-Russian authorities urged the men to report for military service. However, Kiev denies that it has any plans to attack the self-proclaimed republics. Still, the weekend has been marked by clashes and explosions, one of the most notable of which occurred on Friday night and affected the Druzhba gas pipeline, according to local media reports.

Like the West, Russia has also condemned this violence. "Any spark, any unplanned incident or any small planned provocation can lead to irreparable consequences," warned Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov. Meanwhile, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused Kiev of committing "crimes against humanity". She also sent a clear message to the West, saying that those who continue to ignore "the disastrous situation of the people of Donbas" will "become accomplices" in these crimes. 

As tensions have risen, the US embassy in Moscow has warned its citizens about alleged terrorist attacks in public places in Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as in areas close to the Russian-Ukrainian border. Russian authorities have recently denounced the "complete" destruction of a facility used by the border guard service in the Rostov region. Also, in response to the current situation, Moscow and Minsk have agreed to prolong their joint military exercises, scheduled to last until 20 February. In fact, over the weekend, both armies conducted nuclear missile exercises.

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra