Macron refuses to bow to pressure and maintains the blockade on MidCat
Macron invoked De Gaulle. The French president repeated the general's famous phrase in which he called not to get agitated and "jump like Pyrenean goats" minutes after throwing out the MidCat project, in a context in which Europe needs to improve its energy connections to face next winter's supply crisis. However, the Elysée Palace's tenant said he was open to changing his position if "Spain, Germany or another country" put solid reasons on the table in favour of the plan. At the moment, it seems unlikely that Macron will give in. Not on this issue.
Germany's Olaf Scholz could not convince him. The controversial chancellor, downhill and without brakes in the polls after the controversial episodes in his government - civil servants in the pay of the Kremlin and irregularities in his time as mayor of Hamburg - and, above all, his inability to tame the current crisis, on Monday afternoon, he spoke by videoconference with the French president to persuade him of the need to get the MidCat gas pipeline, which would connect the Iberian peninsula with the Old Continent via the Pyrenees, up and running as soon as possible. France's backing is key to the development of the infrastructure.
The Social Democrat closed ranks last week with Sánchez on this issue. For the first time, Scholz summoned a Spanish prime minister to the German Council of Ministers, which was held in the Meseberg Palace on the outskirts of Berlin, where the German government is preparing for what is expected to be a turbulent few months. German industry, dependent on Russian gas, is in danger of coming to a complete standstill.
From there, Sánchez and Scholz sealed their alliance to create a Europe of energy, to improve interconnections with the aim of supplying a continent at a low ebb. The Spanish-German axis was strengthened to put pressure on Brussels.
The French economy minister, Bruno Le Maire, a strong man in the government and a member of Macron's old guard, said he was willing to study the MidCat proposal because his German and Spanish 'friends' were asking him to do so. A week later, the French president himself intervened to lower expectations. "It is false, factually false" that the pipeline would solve the supply crisis, Macron concluded. But he did not limit himself to extending his refusal, but went on to explain the reasons that have led him to block the project, at least for the time being.
The French president argued first of all that costly reforms would have to be carried out to adapt and set up the infrastructure, especially if hydrogen is to be transported. In short, too much investment and too much waiting time. It could take eight or nine months to become operational on the Spanish side, as the Minister for Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, acknowledged, although it is likely to take longer, and there is hardly any room for manoeuvre. In addition, the works would come up against strong opposition from environmental groups, which, according to Macron, "is not without foundation".
The French president recalled that there are already two other gas pipelines connecting Spain and France, those of Irún and Larrau, which cross the Navarre Pyrenees and which, according to the Elysée's version, are "underused". They have been operating at maximum capacity since the beginning of the year, although it is true that their capacity is limited, especially given the need to supply Russian gas.
At the press conference following his dialogue with Scholz, the French leader deduced that before exporting, Spain should import more gas, presumably "from the south". Macron was alluding to Algeria, the Maghreb's main energy supplier, with which Spain has a bilateral crisis caused by the Sánchez government's turnaround on the Western Sahara dispute in favour of Morocco's autonomy proposal.
Despite attempts at rapprochement, Algiers maintains diplomatic and commercial distances with Madrid, but complies strictly with energy contracts. Gas continues to flow through Medgaz, albeit in smaller quantities than before, as Spain has replaced Algeria with the United States as its main gas supplier in recent months. The Spanish government, however, is working to iron out differences with the Algerian regime's top brass.
Macron, who made a state visit to the North African country last week to rebuild troubled Franco-Algerian relations, ultimately called for more electricity rather than gas interconnections at the European level. However, behind this refusal lies a certain interest on the part of France to contain the strategic weight of Spain, a regasification power, in order to maintain its role as an energy exporter. The aim would be to avoid giving tools to a potential direct competitor. Although the prospects for financing and profitability are not entirely flattering.
This is not the first time that the MidCat project has been buried. In 2019, the high costs brought construction to a halt at the Girona town of Hostalric. On this occasion, Brussels was expected to take the initiative after the alignment of the Madrid-Berlin axis, and not only that, but also to take a step forward to assume the financing of the project, which would benefit practically all member states and contribute to reducing energy dependence on Russia, according to initial projections. However, the European Commission has avoided taking a position on the issue.
The EU's energy spokesman, Tim McPhie, told a press conference in Brussels that, for the moment, they "cannot give a specific position" pending "further assessments from the countries involved and the project promoters". McPhie also recalled that, in 2019, Madrid and Paris froze the project due to a lack of maturity.
Macron's intervention was in fact intended to make the French aware of the delicate energy horizon ahead of the winter. "We are preparing so that there will be no gas or electricity cuts, that is what we are doing", said the French leader, who appealed to solidarity and sobriety to get out of the predicament. His speeches in recent weeks, especially since the start of the new political year, have been moving in this direction. The tone is severe, serious.
France fears more gas supply disruptions, a supply that Russia uses as a "weapon of war", according to the Elysée. In fact, the Kremlin acknowledged on Monday that the cuts will be persistent until the European Union lifts the sanctions imposed on the Russian economy after the invasion of Ukraine. For the time being, Nord Stream I is paralysed. Against this backdrop, Macron is betting on action within the EU-27, as a bloc, to create a "European contribution mechanism".
Avec l’Allemagne, nous serons solidaires en renforçant nos échanges de gaz et d’électricité. Nous défendrons la mise en œuvre d’un mécanisme européen qui mettra à contribution les producteurs d’énergie dont les coûts de production sont bien inférieurs au prix du marché. pic.twitter.com/3C4HwzFsdg
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) September 5, 2022
A few days ago, the French president predicted "the end of abundance", a new period that will force people to tighten their belts. The message raised fears, especially among opposition sectors, that the government is considering pushing through a package of deep cuts, the so-called austerity measures, to face the coming months in an economic context marked by galloping inflation and soaring energy prices.
