Macron will again face Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election
The President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, goes through to the second round of the elections with 27.6% of the vote, followed by Marine Le Pen with 23%. Both candidates for the presidency of the republic already faced each other in the second round in the 2017 elections. In the history of the Fifth Republic, two candidates have not faced each other in the second round since 1981, when Mitterrand and Giscard d'Estaing faced each other, resulting in a victory for Mitterrand.
The first round was characterised by a lower turnout than in 2017, with 4 points less: 77% against 74%. The drop in turnout has been more accentuated, as usual, in the French overseas territories. The departments with the highest turnout have mainly been the fiefdoms of the right.
Behind Macon and Le Pen, the leader of France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, came in with 22.2% of the vote, very close to Le Pen, who during the campaign tried to win the left-wing leader's support for the second round, promising a coalition government with him. He has broken records in the south, especially in Nïmes and Montpellier.
In 2017, Melenchon won 19% of the total vote, only 600,000 votes behind the Breton candidate, Marine Le Pen. In the words of the political analyst specialising in France Insoumise, Manuel Cervera-Marzal, on the Mediapart channel, "For Mélenchon this campaign has been practically identical to the previous one. It gives me a 'throwback' feeling. A team that has not changed, an identical logo and identity", the analyst commented on the set. Only his results have changed, favourably, giving him the position that the polls predicted, as the leading left-wing force and well ahead of the right-wingers who are chasing him.
Those right-wingers are the far-right television personality and viral polemicist Eric Zemmour, who gradually saw his polls deflate at the expense of Marine Le Pen as the campaign progressed. With 7.2%, this media personality, known for his appearances on debate programmes and leaning very far to the right, would have helped Marine Le Pen to position herself more to the centre and win more votes thanks to a more moderate message, according to the analysis made by Uxía Carral, professor at the Carlos III University of Madrid and expert in European political communication.
Next comes Valérie Pécresse, who with 4.8% continues the downward trend of the Republicans, the heir party of the Union of the Popular Movement (UMP), which governed the country under Chirac and Sarkozy.
Also at the 5% threshold was the Green candidate, Yannick Jadot, who gave up campaigning together with Anne Hidalgo's Socialist party. The environmental movement, which is very popular in France among young people under 30, has not been able to translate this success into votes. One of the possible explanations for this is the low turnout among young people, something that will become clear in the next few days.
Jean Lassalle, the leader of Résistons, is one of the parties that has gained the most votes compared to 2017. His case is particular because of the difficulty in giving him a place in the political spectrum. He is a rural leader, very close to the world of forgotten France, who appeals to older, working-class voters in the interior provinces. According to Carral, Lassalle has taken many votes away from the moribund French Socialist Party, in the same rural area where he triumphs.
According to the second round forecasts offered by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, the most likely outcome is a Macron victory with 54% against 46% for Le Pen, a victory for La République en Marche much tighter than in 2017. The victory conditions have been approved this evening, 10 April, and the cordon sanitaire against Le Pen should be back in place.
"Macron presented himself as the lesser evil, against Le Pen, in his first election. The strategy now is different. Macron's communication strives to present himself as the main guarantor of France's security. Clearly the war has played in his favour," comments Carral. According to Carral, the French presidency of the European Union, the exit of the United Kingdom, which makes France the leading European military power, and the leading role on the international stage are paying off for Macron in these elections.
"However, the consequences of this war will take their toll in the coming months and years," adds Carral. "The rise in prices and the difficulties that the conflict in Ukraine will bring will play in Le Pen's favour, and the opposition will be tough.
Over the next two weeks, the two candidates in the second round will have a strong campaign days. Macron, immersed in his handling of the Ukraine crisis, has barely campaigned for the first round, something in which Le Pen has gained ground on him. "Macron has hardly set foot on the streets. He has returned to the elitist, technocratic image, far removed from the people. He is going to work hard over the next two weeks to reverse that image", adds the analyst in European political communication. "If he never used to talk about Le Pen before, now he has started to criticise her in public.
The candidates who have not passed were debating whether or not to give their support to Le Pen and Macron at the time of going to press. Some like Zemmour have indicated that they will support Le Pen, Pécresse is still debating some dissent in his party, Melenchon late at night indicated that he finally submitted the question to consultations among the party rank and file. The ecologist Jadot has called for support for Macron, as has Jean Lassalle.