Mali torn between Russia and the United States in its fight against the jihadist offensive
Mali's regional isolation leaves the country at the mercy of jihadists, while Russia and the United States seek dominance in the Sahel
- Departure of France
- International isolation
- Economic blockade strategy
- The United States enters the scene
The complicated situation in Mali is a true reflection of the instability in the African Sahel region, which has been the scene of violent clashes for years. The offensive by the jihadist militias of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Macina Liberation Front, linked to al-Qaeda, poses a serious threat to Mali and, by extension, to the rest of the Sahel.
The situation is not new: Mali has been a hotbed of instability since the beginning of the decade, when the military junta led by Assimi Göita seized power in a coup in 2020.
Mali, a country of 24 million inhabitants, landlocked, with no hydrocarbon reserves and gold mines located in the region bordering Senegal, has become another piece on the complicated Sahel chessboard, where the interests of the major powers intermingle.
Departure of France
To understand what is happening today, we must review what has happened in the country in recent years. After the military junta came to power, Mali began a process of self-isolation that has led the country to its current situation, at the mercy of jihadists.
The fight against jihadist terrorism has fallen in recent years to the French Armed Forces, with military support from their allies among the Sahel countries. This offensive began in 2014 under the name Operation Barkhane, led by Major General Bruno Guibert and represented in Mali by Colonel Jean-Bruno Despouys.
However, disagreements with France following the coup in Mali led the French to announce the withdrawal of their troops in February 2022, which took effect in August of that year. In November 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the end of Operation Barkhane in the Sahel.
Not only that, but in December 2023, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), which had been in the country since 2013, also left Mali. And the Göita regime contributed to regional isolation by leaving the G-5 Sahel and the Economic Community of West African States.
International isolation
This international isolation, brought about by Mali's own military regime, has backfired, as it lacks allies in the region to turn to in the face of the jihadists' advance.
The support of Russia, in the form of the Afrika Corps mercenary group, successors to the Wagner Group and directly controlled by the Malian Ministry of Defence, is the only thing sustaining them in the face of the advance of al-Qaeda-affiliated groups. However, it is difficult for these 3,000 or so mercenaries to satisfactorily replace the more than 15,000 troops deployed by the French during Operation Barkhane.
These mercenaries are also more concerned with controlling the gold mines in the Loulo-Gounkoto complex on the border with Senegal than with confronting the jihadist threat, which seeks to control the region and establish a pseudo-caliphate, as they did in parts of Iraq and Syria in 2014.
Economic blockade strategy
The jihadist groups operating in Mali are pursuing a clear strategy of economic suffocation. The country, which has no direct access to the Atlantic and no energy reserves of its own, depends on fuel imports by road from neighbouring countries such as Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire.
Therefore, the jihadist offensive focuses on cutting off road communications with the countries that supply Mali with fuel, causing a stifling of economic activity that even Russia's support in fuel and weapons is unable to overcome.
The situation is further complicated by internal dissension within the military junta, which led to the departure last month of a number of senior officials, including the chief of staff.
The advance of the jihadists and the economic blockade have prompted several countries to ask their citizens to leave Mali, and major logistics companies such as France's CGM CMA and the multinational MSC are considering abandoning their economic activities in a country that is becoming increasingly unsafe.
From France, media reports point to the imminent fall of Mali's capital, Bamako, to the jihadists. However, other media outlets on the ground suggest that France is presenting a much more negative image of the situation in Mali than is actually the case. This view could be explained by the growing confrontation between the African country and France: the military junta decided to cut off counter-terrorism cooperation with France and expel several French diplomats from its territory.
The United States enters the scene
For its part, and as part of its policy of intervening in armed conflicts wherever they occur, the Trump administration also wants to establish a presence in the Sahel, specifically in Mali.
US Under Secretary of State Christopher Landau recently spoke with Mali's foreign minister to discuss security issues and congratulated the country's armed forces ‘for their fight against extremist militants’.
The United States' support for the military junta, ignoring issues such as its legitimacy in power, respect for democracy or human rights, is part of the pragmatic strategy implemented by the US president to regain the ground lost in the Sahel to Russia following France's departure from the scene.