Marruecos-Israel: Trump facilita una relación ya existente
Donald Trump is using his last month as President of the United States to cement his "transformative" legacy in the Middle East.
Proof of this is the facilitating role that Trump has played in normalising relations between Rabat and Tel-Aviv, announced on 10 December. True to his transactional style, Trump recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for the Alaouite kingdom establishing relations with Israel.
At first sight, such a decision has its symbolism. As for the US's relationship with the Middle East, this decision confirms the change of trend of the countries in the region that recognised Israel throughout this year, breaking decades of consensus on Israel's status. As for the Sahara, which has been the subject of a recent rise in tension between Morocco and Polisario, America's backing for Rabat reinforces Morocco, which is seeing its claims to sovereignty over Western Sahara gradually being accepted by the international community; Washington's intention to open a Consulate in Dakhla is particularly noteworthy.
However, if one analyses the history of Moroccan-Israeli relations, the privileged relationship Morocco has had with the West (facilitated by its geographical proximity to Europe) and Rabat's efforts since 2016 to expand its foreign policy on the African continent, we find that Trump's latest gesture has reinforced existing trends.
Despite belonging to the Arab League and being culturally and geographically part of the Arab world, Morocco is one of the few countries in the area that boasts good relations with the West, especially with France-the former colonial power-and the United States. Indeed, unlike neighbouring Algeria, Morocco is seen as one of Washington's most faithful allies in the region.
As a result, Rabat has a free hand to play on both fields, defending causes such as Palestine and being loyal to Paris and Washington, despite the traditional friction between the West and the Middle East over Palestine, the price of oil and Arab unity.
This joker position is seen in the links between Rabat and Tel Aviv, which facilitated the re-establishment of diplomatic relations.
Culturally, Morocco is one of the few countries in the Arab world with its own Jewish community. This community is also present in Israel. In fact, they form the majority of what in Israel are the Mizrají Jews, those originating from North Africa and the Middle East. This group is one of the pillars of the Likud, Netanyahu's party, so the re-establishment of relations between the two countries can help you if there are elections in Israel again.
On the shadow level (secret services), both countries have cooperated. It was the Mossad that warned of Mehdi Ben Barka's conspiracy in 1965 and - according to rumours - facilitated his disappearance in France. Morocco also facilitated Mossad's recording of Arab League meetings before the Six-Day War in 1967. Ten years later, the first contacts between Israelis and Egyptians that led to Camp David occurred in Morocco. Finally, both countries opened liaison offices after the Oslo agreements, though they closed in 2000 following the outbreak of the Second Intifada.
Therefore, more than a novelty, we see that Trump has facilitated a relationship that was developing in the shadows and how the cultural and political links between Rabat and Tel-Aviv reinforced this relationship.
With respect to the Sahara, Trump's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty reinforces a trend that began in 2016. That year Morocco returned to the AU (African Unity) from which it had withdrawn in 1984 on account of its recognition of Polisario. Since then the number of countries on the continent that have recognised Moroccan sovereignty has increased, as evidenced by the opening of consulates in El Aaiun and Dakhla.
The late and lukewarm reaction of Algeria, the main supporter of Polisario, is surprising. With the country embroiled in a transition that does not satisfy the will of the people and its president affected by the COVID, the appearance of Abdelmadjid Tebboune on 13 December from Germany, where he described Trump's action as "a manoeuvre against Algeria", underlined, owing to his delicate state of health, Algeria's fragility as opposed to the force of Rabat. This weakness is also that of Polisario, which once again sees the cause of Saharan independence weakened internationally.
In conclusion, although at first sight the re-establishment of relations between Rabat and Israel, with Trump's approval, is novel, particularly America's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, the fact is that Trump has made two existing facts official.
Because of its geographical position and good relations with the West, Morocco has been able to play its cards to support Arab causes without neglecting its relations with the West. This can be seen in its semi-official relationship with Israel, which is reinforced by cultural and political ties, particularly cooperation in intelligence, and its role as mediator between Israel and the Arab world.
US recognition of Morocco's Saharan theses is a trend that has been occurring since Morocco returned to the AU in 2016. Since then several African countries have opened consulates in the Sahara, recognising de facto Moroccan control of the area. The fact that Washington is the first Western country to recognise Morocco's theses is only novel owing to the fact that it is the first Western country to do so.