Moroccan Sahara: Resolution 2797 isolates Algiers and triggers a new wave of investment
This change also paves the way for an influx of investment in the southern provinces, now perceived as a stable, secure area aligned with international law.
A joint report by the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the Institute for Governance and Global Sovereignty entitled ‘What can Morocco expect after the adoption of Resolution 2797?’ points out that the latest positions of the UN personal envoy, Staffan de Mistura, continue to favour ‘procedural balance’ to the detriment of the clear and now consolidated substance of the resolution.
The authors warn that the risk would be to reintroduce, even indirectly, elements that the Security Council has already ruled out. Hence the need, they stress, for Rabat to diplomatically reaffirm that the only legitimate debate now focuses on the modalities of implementing the autonomy plan, and not on its principle.
The modernisation of its autonomy initiative announced by Morocco, the document continues, will make it possible to integrate the achievements made since 2007, in particular the reforms related to advanced regionalisation. According to the document, the 2011 constitutional framework provides an adequate basis for presenting a ‘fully operational’ autonomy model within the institutional architecture of the Moroccan kingdom.
The challenge lies in formulating a scheme that guarantees real autonomy for the southern provinces while preserving territorial coherence and institutional symmetry at the national level.
The authors also note that Resolution 2797 strengthens Morocco's position by enshrining its initiative as the only internationally recognised framework for a political solution. This development shifts the issue of sovereignty from the realm of contestation to that of implementation.
International courts, in particular the Court of Justice of the European Union, will therefore have to harmonise their approaches with those of the Security Council, paving the way for the resolution of persistent disputes relating to trade agreements, resource exploitation and territorial status.
A knock-on effect on investment
The report considers that the international anchoring of Moroccan sovereignty acts as a powerful catalyst for foreign and domestic investment in the region. Sectors with high potential, particularly renewable energies, could attract billions of dollars. The port of Dakhla Atlantique and its free zone will position the southern provinces as a strategic logistics platform for West Africa and the Sahel.
Combined with the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline and the Atlantic Initiative promoted by King Mohammed VI, these projects will give rise to a true Atlantic economic backbone, capable of connecting Europe, Morocco and sub-Saharan Africa.
What has long been presented as a geopolitical liability could, in the near future, become one of the main drivers of national growth.
Attempts to bypass Algiers and the Polisario
However, the report warns of the strategies that Algeria and the Polisario could deploy to try to reintroduce ‘confidence-building measures’ or parallel discussions to circumvent the architecture imposed by Resolution 2797. Any opening to these tactics, however limited, would weaken the core of the resolution: the reduction of the political arena to a single framework, that of the autonomy plan under Moroccan sovereignty.
The note also returns to the peace initiative announced by Steve Witkoff, special envoy of US President Donald Trump. It believes that this initiative places Algiers and the Polisario in a strategic dead end. The US president's stated desire to resolve as many conflicts as possible during his term in office gives a dimension of ‘high diplomatic risk’ to an issue that has long been dealt with technically by the UN.
According to the report, Algeria can no longer ignore an initiative carried out by an administration on which it depends for its economic partnerships, security cooperation and access to international financial institutions. The Polisario, for its part, sees its room for manoeuvre reduced, especially as Washington is moving to classify this movement as a terrorist entity.
The report's conclusion is unequivocal: Morocco is now the only player capable of calmly joining the US initiative by proposing an updated version of its autonomy plan. Conversely, Algiers and the Polisario risk further isolating themselves by positioning themselves as the main obstacles to the regional stability and economic integration that Washington wants to promote.