Morocco commits to smart power while Algeria boosts military spending
- Morocco: modernisation of the Royal Armed Forces (FAR)
- Algeria: quantitative deterrence and foreign dependence
- Two opposing visions of the future of the Maghreb
- Defence spending: social and economic factors
- Defence doctrines between smart power and conventional deterrence
- International projection and strategic balance
The increase in defence spending by North African countries is shaping up to be a new arms race in which Morocco and Algeria have adopted two different conceptions of military power. While Rabat is committed to technology and quality, Algiers has opted for quantity. The presentation of both countries' defence budgets shows an opposing view of security in the short term.
With the aim of redefining the balance of power in the region, Algeria, increasingly isolated internationally, has opted for a military deterrence strategy through record budgets. On the other hand, Morocco, which enjoys broad international support, has preferred to opt for a strategy of smart power, very similar to that of the major powers of NATO and military giants such as China and Pakistan.
Morocco: modernisation of the Royal Armed Forces (FAR)
According to specialised platforms, Morocco has begun a process of transition and transformation of the Royal Armed Forces (FAR). Based on the provisions of the Finance Bill (PLF) for 2026, Rabat has expressed its willingness to accelerate the modernisation of its military industry and army.
With an allocation of nearly $16 billion (15.717 billion), the North African country hopes to create more than 5,500 jobs across all ranks of the FAR, especially at the Royal Centre for Space Surveillance, reflecting the importance Rabat attaches to the development of satellite intelligence and reconnaissance.
Of the total, it is estimated that more than $5.5 billion will be distributed among salaries, maintenance and the execution of previous contracts. These figures would represent a 17.7% increase over previous figures.
The rest of the budget is aimed at completing the qualitative, rather than quantitative, modernisation programmes of the army through the purchase of advanced systems and the promotion of a local industry supported by the country's most important military partners: the United States, India, Turkey and Israel.
Algeria: quantitative deterrence and foreign dependence
Governed by an executive branch that relies heavily on military power, Algeria is seeing a significant increase in its defence budget year after year. According to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Algeria has increased its budget allocation for military spending by more than 100% over the last 10 years.
According to the latest data from the Spanish platform Defensa, Algeria's military spending exceeds $25 billion, which is more than 55% higher than Morocco's. In addition, the Algerian government has activated loans worth more than $26 billion, making the country one of the states with the highest defence spending in Africa.
Such is Algeria's concern, stemming from its international isolation, that its military budget far exceeds the combined total of its health and education budgets. In fact, the additional credit available to the military industry alone exceeds the sum of these by more than 45%.
Algeria's strategy is opposed to that of Morocco. While Rabat seeks to modernise its local industry through international alliances, Algiers has increased its spending to purchase and maintain its entire Russian arsenal, which accounts for three-quarters of its military power.
The purchase of the new Russian aircraft models Su-57, Su-35 and Su-34 is responsible for the high expenditure that has had to be approved. However, this level of procurement confirms that Algeria is pursuing a traditional deterrence policy based on numerical superiority and the maintenance of a large conventional army, equipped with heavy and high-cost operational equipment.
Two opposing visions of the future of the Maghreb
The difference in the predispositions of the two countries is very clear, as the former adheres to the smart power model, which is understood as one that combines international cooperation, technological innovation and local industrialisation within acceptable economic limits.
The second, in this case, hides behind its policy of deterrent quantities an extreme distribution of its wealth, which is generated by oil, gas and other natural resources, to cover its heavy military expenditure.
For defence analysts, the discrepancy between the two is capable of tipping the military balance in the Maghreb, with the former seeking ways out of the fire that has led to diversified strategic autonomy, while the latter will be faced with the crushing consequences of heavy military spending and the lack of a holistic vision between defence and development.
In this sense, the central challenge for both will be to convert their military spending into real and lasting stability, ensuring that arms competition does not take away resources for social development and regional cooperation.
Defence spending: social and economic factors
The discrepancy in military strategies is also inherent in the economic and social structures of each country, with the diversification of the Moroccan economy, based on tourism, automotive, agriculture and renewable energy, contrasting with Algeria, which continues to depend on its gas and oil revenues.
This in turn means that the sustainability of military spending is conditioned: while Rabat tries to maintain a balance between defence and development, Algeria opts for a high-cost model that puts pressure on its national budget.
Morocco has recently witnessed demonstrations by the so-called Generation Z, calling for improved public services and more job opportunities, reinforcing the need for a security commitment to social welfare.
The Moroccan government has attempted to make investments, but also from the perspective of an environment in which defence and internal cohesion are important, knowing that the peace to which the country aspires depends on many more factors than the provision of military production.
Defence doctrines between smart power and conventional deterrence
Morocco's model is one of smart power, combining military power with diplomacy, technological cooperation and regional security. The strength of this model lies in striking a balance between hard power and soft power by exploiting innovation and international cooperation as mechanisms of influence.
Rabat participates in exercises such as African Lion, which it conducts alongside the United States forces in United Nations peacekeeping missions, consolidating its image as a stable and modern player in the Maghreb. In contrast to this model, Algeria has opted for a defence doctrine based on conventional deterrence and the size of its armed forces, which numbered more than 130,000 troops.
However, while this doctrine gives it great operational capacity, the lack of a national defence industry limits it to importing foreign equipment and makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in the international market. The war in Ukraine also contributes to exposing its vulnerability.
International projection and strategic balance
Morocco and Algeria are key players in the security of the Maghreb, but also in the Mediterranean area, for the security of those who have a concept of security rooted in the colonial history of North Africa.
Algeria's strategy maintains its historical weight on the continent very well, but not only because it is very present and very involved in African defence organisations (yes, because it finds historical validation in its choice of ‘non-direct intervention’, but also because it has high margins of legitimacy to act on the basis of its international isolation and its technological dependence on Russian weaponry, which will slow down its path to adapting to the new balances.
The importance of technological modernisation, and even more so the potential of Morocco's space capabilities, have contributed to a gradual weakening of the strategic balance, fuelling Algiers' concerns and leading to a new phase in the arms race in North Africa.