Marruecos encara la recta final de la campaña electoral
The countdown to Morocco's triple election day is drawing to a close. Less than a week remains before the polls reveal the new figures who will occupy local and regional institutions for the next five years. The focus, however, will be on the outcome of the legislative elections, where 32 political formations will compete for the 395 seats in the House of Representatives and access to the government.
The moderate Islamist Saaeddine Othmani, the current prime minister and candidate of the Justice and Development Party (PJD), is the favourite to retain a position he has held since March 2017. The PJD has ruled uninterruptedly since 2011, when Morocco introduced a new Magna Carta that granted extensive prerogatives to the executive and legislative branches. During the last legislature the party shared the government with the National Rally of Independents (RAI), the fourth most voted party and a junior coalition partner with ties to the economic elite and the Royal House.
After a decade, observers see for the first time signs of weakness in the Islamist formation. Backed until now by Morocco's largely urban middle class, the PJD is facing serious internal and external erosion as a result of some of the decisions taken in recent months, including the normalisation of diplomatic relations with Israel, the legalisation of cannabis and the generalisation of the use of French in primary education.
The legal innovations implemented in the electoral law will work against the interests of the PJD and the rest of the majority forces in parliament. Approved in March of this year by the lower house, the measure ostensibly modifies the electoral counting method. Until now, seats were calculated on the basis of the number of voters; now, the procedure will be based on the number of registered voters, whether or not they voted. In addition, regional districts have been created for these elections to the detriment of the usual national lists.
The laws could result in a loss of 40 seats for the PJD and an equal distribution of seats among all parties, which is why the main forces strongly opposed their adoption. In this scenario, the RAI emerges as the main alternative. Led by Morocco's richest man and former agriculture minister, Aziz Akhannouch, the centre-right party aspires to gain ground over its government partner and leave behind its more political image, close to the country's elites, to embrace the discontented electorate.
To the left of the Islamist party is the Party of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM), founded by former Secretary of State for the Interior and advisor to the monarch Fouad Ali El Himma after the merger of five political formations. The current leader of the opposition, Abdellatif Ouahbi, who presented his candidacy in the Taroundant constituency, will be at the helm. In the last elections, the PAM was the second most voted party behind the PJD with 102 seats in parliament.
The third runner-up in 2016 was Istiqlal, the Independence Party, with 46 seats in the House of Representatives. With strong nationalist leanings, the party's new leader is Nizar Baraka after the abrupt departure of former secretary general Hamid Chabat amid a series of internal disputes. Baraka presented his candidacy in the Larache constituency.
Up to 17,983,490 voters have registered to take part in the elections, more than two million more than in the last legislative elections. This is a sign of optimism, although the Alawi Kingdom continues to experience difficulties in mobilising the electorate, especially the young, who are deeply disenchanted with the political class. Of the total number of registered voters, 46 per cent are women and 54 per cent are men.
The election campaign, which ends on 7 September, has been marked by the epidemiological crisis. Despite having overcome the peak of the pandemic, health authorities remain concerned about a possible increase in infections. In fact, local media report that there is still a possibility of a postponement of the elections. This has led parties to shift their campaigns to the virtual stage, and the streets of the country show no signs of an electoral contest in the coming days, with no rallies or posters.