NATO moves towards historic increase in military spending under pressure from Trump
Under pressure from the United States, NATO is moving towards a historic change in its military spending policy. President Donald Trump has demanded that member countries increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP, more than double the current target of 2%. This request, initially controversial, has been gaining traction in European capitals and will be the central focus of the Atlantic alliance summit scheduled for 24 and 25 June in The Hague.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth expressed confidence on Thursday that members will accept this demand before the summit. ‘We are here to continue the work that President Trump started, which is to commit 5 per cent of defence spending to this alliance,’ Hegseth said during the NATO defence ministers' meeting in Brussels.
The current talks seek to define the new framework for military investment in a context of growing tension with Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte anticipated that ‘historic goals’ will be set for spending, troops and equipment. ‘Making NATO a stronger, fairer and more lethal alliance’ is the goal, he said, highlighting the need to strengthen air defences, long-range missiles, ground forces and command and control systems.
From a symbolic 2% to a structural 5%
Trump, who had already pressed during his first term for members to meet the 2% of GDP target, is now demanding more than double that. Against this backdrop, Rutte has proposed a mixed scheme: 3.5% allocated directly to defence and an additional 1.5% to security-related spending, such as cybersecurity and critical infrastructure.
This new formula would allow countries to meet Washington's requirements without neglecting their national priorities. However, debates continue on how to precisely define what is considered ‘defence-related spending’, a key issue for ensuring transparency and fairness.
The question of the deadline for reaching this 5% target is dividing the allies. Germany proposes reaching the target by 2032, but Eastern European countries consider this date unacceptably far off.
Estonian Defence Minister Hannu Pevkur was categorical on this point. ‘We don't have time for ten years, not even seven. We need to reach 5% in five years,’ he said. Sweden has also come out in favour of a 2030 target, while Lithuania has described 2032 as ‘too late’.
In this context, Germany faces a logistical and human challenge: its Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, estimated that the country will need between 50,000 and 60,000 additional troops to meet the new NATO standards. He also warned of the need for a ‘realistic compromise between what is necessary and what is affordable’.
New plans for a more robust defence
In addition to the debate on spending, ministers approved a set of new Capability Goals on Thursday, including concrete plans for arms procurement and troop organisation.
Each of the 32 NATO members will be required to acquire priority systems, including air defence and missile defence, artillery, drones, ammunition, and strategic elements such as air-to-air refuelling, heavy air transport and logistics.
The most ambitious operational goal is to have up to 300,000 troops ready to deploy on the eastern flank within 30 days. However, experts warn that achieving this figure will require an unprecedented logistical and industrial effort.