NATO's role after the withdrawal from Afghanistan: Back to basics?

The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August marked a turning point in the perception of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), both by its member states and the rest of the world. Since then, and following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the Alliance's role on the international stage - as well as its relations with the US government and the European Union - seems to have been called into question.

In this vein, the Roundtable "NATO after Afghanistan. The projection of transatlantic values", organised by the Royal University Institute of European Studies of the CEU San Pablo University, in collaboration with the Spanish Atlantic Association, served as a space for debate and analysis of the situation facing NATO. The colloquium was attended by important figures in diplomacy and foreign strategy policies, including the Spanish ambassador, Javier Rupérez; the head of research at the Institute for Statecraft in London, Nicolás de Pedro; and the former Popular Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ana Palacio. 

In addition, Dr Charles Powell, Director of the Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies, and Dr Florentino Portero, historian and senior researcher at the same institution, also took part. The presentations and discussions were moderated by José María Beneyto, Professor of International Public Law and European Community Law and Director of the Royal Institute of European Studies at the CEU San Pablo University. Finally, the round table was closed by the President of the Spanish Atlantic Association, Pedro Argüelles Salaverría. 

One of the main points of consensus on which the discussions of the Roundtable "NATO after Afghanistan. The projection of transatlantic values" was the idea that the organisation "hit rock bottom after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan", recapitulated Pedro Argüelles in his concluding remarks. The presentations and perspectives of all the invited experts converged on this issue.

"The withdrawal from Afghanistan was an ill-considered operation that has generated major problems of reliability in the United States for all the allied states in Europe and Asia. This poses a problem for all those countries whose security rests under the umbrella of the American giant, including NATO members," explained Nicolás de Pedro, head of research at the Institute for Statecraft.

However, as Charles Powell argued, the second of the most important issues facing NATO relates to "the kind of defence and security system NATO wants to have". The director of the Elcano Royal Institute argued that NATO's strategy should return to a back-to-basics approach, positioning itself solely in defence of the West - and its democratic and liberal values - and adopting deterrence methods in the face of threats to international law and order.

In this sense, historian and researcher Florentino Portero warned of the progressive rapprochement with anti-democratic powers, which are also seeking to join the organisation. "If we are an alliance in defence of democracy, what we have to do is to start worrying about democracies at home as well", added Portero. And, in agreement, Nicolás de Pedro expressed the need to "set terms in the European debate that are anchored in greater realism", as one of the future steps to be taken by the EU member countries of NATO.

What happened in Afghanistan - according to Nicolás - is due to the fact that, "with a minimal consensus, NATO countries sought to achieve overly ambitious goals". Thus, after the perception of defeat in the face of almost impossible goals, the European Union, and NATO as a whole, seems to be seen as incapable. "This perception of decline feeds on itself, leading to failure and only reinforcing the confidence of our strategic opponents," de Pedro explained. 

On the role of the European Union within NATO and the international scene as a whole, the speakers spoke from a variety of perspectives. On the one hand, the former foreign minister, Ana Palacio, claimed that the EU was relevant insofar as it forms a fundamental part of the established world order. "At the General Assemblies, Lavrov [Russia's foreign minister] has concentrated on exposing the fact that Russia is questioning the established world order. And to put an end to this international order, Russia has to undermine the EU," Palacio said.

However, positions such as that of the director of the Elcano Royal Institute were far from the former minister's approach. "Europe's loss of relevance vis-à-vis the United States explains why the EU is outside the negotiations with Russia", Powell maintained in reference to the crisis between Kiev and Moscow, in which Washington's role is playing a decisive role. "We are mere spectators, and this is creating a huge imbalance within the organisation itself," he added. "In an era of increasing great power rivalry, Europe is even more dependent on the US than it was just after the Cold War.

Finally, in his last speech, the President of the Spanish Atlantic Association, Pedro Argüelles, welcomed the level of agreement reached by all the participants throughout the day, and once again stressed that - despite the decline of the organisation, the "black hole" that Kabul represents and the cultural, social and political crisis that the US, NATO's main pillar, is facing - "the Atlantic Alliance after Afghanistan has an opportunity to reformulate itself and recover its importance".

"If there is no security and agreement between the two sides, the organisation's deterrent capacity will disappear," concluded Argüelles. To this end, according to the President of the Atlantic Association in Spain, "the Alliance has to rethink its formulation, reread its founding treaty, and try to be more pragmatic and realistic in order to confront the positions of Russia and China, which are much clearer on these issues".