A new horizon in Cuban politics

Raúl Castro lived in the shadow of his brother Fidel for most of his life. It was precisely Fidel who personified a charismatic leadership that was recognised worldwide and is still remembered by millions of people, who led the Cuban population to ruin. However, Raúl played a fundamental role in the revolution carried out by Cuba's left in 1959, managing to maintain the communism that has burdened the Cuban people for decades. He lived many years away from the spotlight, but when his brother died he began to gain strength and managed to carve out a career as head of the Cuban Communist Party that is now coming to an end.

During the eighth party congress, Raúl Castro announced his departure at the age of 89. He did so while keeping his revolutionary spirit intact: "I will continue to serve as any other revolutionary fighter, willing to contribute as much as I can until the end of my life,” he said in what are already his last declarations as leader of the Cuban Communist Party. "I fervently believe in the strength and value of example and in the understanding of my compatriots. Let no one doubt, that, as long as I live, I will be ready, with a foot in the stirrup to defend socialism," he said as his people, victims of the disastrous management he carried out together with Fidel Castro, are forced to leave the country in search of a better future.

Those lucky enough to leave Cuba's communist regime behind will undoubtedly do so. However, those who are not so fortunate will be forced to suffer the consequences of the policies of President Miguel Díaz-Canel. He will take over from Raúl at the head of the Communist Party, although he will remain in contact with the former party leader to make "strategic decisions" for the country's future. "The generation of the centenary, founder and guide of the Party, transfers its responsibilities”, the Cuban president said on social media before Raúl Castro's departure from his post was made official.
 

The first Political Bureau of the Central Committee in which there will be no Castro arrives. The departure of Fidel's brother has not come alone. His departure from party leadership has been accompanied by important representatives of Cuban politics. It was foreseeable that the second secretary, José Ramón Machado, would step down from the party's governing body at the age of 90. As did Commander Ramiro Valdés, 89, one of those heroes of the Sierra Maestra, and the politician baptised by the international press as the "economic reform czar", who has left much to be desired during his term of office in charge of Cuba's economic situation.

"It is time to erase prejudices of the past, we must ensure the design of business," said Raúl Castro shortly before leaving his post as leader of the Cuban Communist Party. A new group of Cuban leaders will be charged with advancing "the conceptualisation and updating of the model". They will have to elaborate a minimally mixed system that grants a certain freedom to external actors willing to operate on Cuban soil. Otherwise, the evolution they intend to carry out in Cuba will have no results. The pressing need to transform the country's economic system means breaking with a system that needs to be opened up to foreign investment. 

The near future of Cuban politics may have in its focus Minister Roberto Morales, who has been elected Secretary of Organisation and is one of the most likely candidates to take over from Díaz-Canel as President. The current president will occupy the post held until now by Raúl Castro and will be accompanied by the Asturian-born General Álvaro López Miera, recently elected Minister of the Armed Forces. At his side, at the head of the leadership of the Cuban Communist Party, will be Prime Minister Manuel Marrero and Foreign Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Bruno Rodríguez. Meanwhile, Luis Alberto Rodrigo López-Calleja, Raúl Castro's son-in-law, will head the Business Administration Group (GAESA). He is also one of the most important people in the country at the moment, as he is one of the most powerful military officers on the island, managing a large part of the country's economy thanks to his military conglomerate.

Important names remain within the Political Bureau, such as Esteban Lezo, the current President of Parliament, and Salvador Mesa, Cuba's Vice-President. A generation who, although they did not fight in the Sierra Maestra, represent a group that has lived alongside the old Cuban guard for many years and who now aspire to change the country's policies in order to get it out of a situation that has plunged Cuba into a very delicate situation, aggravated, obviously, by the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez has his work cut out for him. If attracting new investors to Cuba is essential, they must first improve the image of the country under the presidency of Miguel Díaz-Canel. As could not be otherwise, the United States has already spoken out about the paradigm shift in Cuba's policy. Peter Hakim, of the Inter-American Dialogue Institute, has argued that there is no reason to establish new ties with Cuba: "What political advantage can reopening relations with Cuba bring Biden? None. The policy of rapprochement carried out by Barack Obama does not seem likely to be replaced by the Biden administration, which, for the moment, has no intention of sitting down with Cuban leaders.