Nkurunziza's death, a turning point for Burundi?

He was barely 55 years old, but he had already accumulated three presidential mandates at the head of Burundi. And only a resounding social response prevented him from facing a fourth consecutive term. There is little doubt that he would have won again in the presidential elections that took place on May 20. Pierre Nkurunziza died this past June 8, according to the government of Burundi, due to a heart attack after several days in hospital. His sudden death leaves the same doubts as his role at the head of the country, as there are suspicions about the real causes of the death of the one who was, and would have been until August, president of Burundi. 

Nkurunziza, who after his refusal to stand again in the last elections had obtained in exchange the title of Supreme National Patriotic Guide, was a military man - and a gymnastics teacher - rather than a politician, and became head of the Forces for the Defence of Democracy (FDD), one of the main Hutu rebel groups, in the early 2000s.

Following the cessation of hostilities and the political agreement with then President Domitien Ndayizeye, the FDD became integrated into Burundian politics through the National Council for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD). The end of Burundi's civil war, which as in neighbouring Rwanda was an ethnic struggle for political power between Hutus and Tutsis, came with this political agreement, which was endorsed through a new presidential election in 2005, in which Nkurunziza won for the first time. 

The hostility with which he has treated the political opposition has been almost constant throughout his three terms in office. Arrests of opponents and journalists or violence by militias linked to the various political parties have been the order of the day. This violence is still visible in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, where ethnic militias from neighbouring countries continue to keep the territorial struggle alive.

This political violence means that Nkurunziza is facing his second re-election alone, as no opposition party is running for the 2010 elections in protest. He was elected with more than 90% of the votes. The point of no return comes in the subsequent re-election. According to Article 97 of the Burundian Constitution adopted in 2005, the President of the Republic cannot serve more than two consecutive terms.

The fact that he decided to participate again in the electoral race was the spark that ended up ignited an already contentious social climate. The Constitutional Court's decision to allow the Hutu leader to stand, with the final vote of six of the seven judges, led to his flight in the face of threats from the court's vice-president, Sylvère Nimpagaratise, to Rwanda. Nkurunziza ended up running - and winning - in those elections, and with it came confrontations that had not taken place in the country for more than a decade.

The very election of Pierre Nkurunziza as the CNDD-FDD candidate caused internal fractures within the party, as attempts had already been made in the previous months to reunify the historic Hutu party, the Front for Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU), in order to confront CNDD-FDD and the de facto authoritarianism it practised. Following this situation, the decision of the Constitutional Court to endorse the third electoral race and the protests in the streets that ended up leaving more than 1,000 dead and hundreds of thousands displaced, General Niyombare, who had been the head of the General Staff of the Armies and director of the National Intelligence Service until recently, took advantage of the absence of the president of the country's capital to declare a coup d'état on 13 May 2015. This declaration led to an increase in clashes during the following days, until just two days later the general surrendered, creating months later another of these militias present in the border area between Burundi and the DRC. 

After his new and last electoral victory, and due in part to the attempt to overthrow him, Pierre Nkurunziza became a president who was fleeing and not very prone to public appearances, especially in the Burundian capital, Bujumbura. Hostilities against the political opposition in the country increased, becoming an absolutely repressive government. Nkurunziza then launched a constitutional reform that would modify part of the agreements reached in Arusha in August 2000 for the end of the Burundian civil war.

However, despite the success of the referendum, which was approved with more than 70% of the votes, the Burundian president began to accuse the party of internal fracture and feared that he would not enjoy the full support of his political family and, above all, the country's senior army officers.

It was precisely because of this situation that he set out to find a profile for the continuity of his government; it was not in vain that he had been appointed Supreme Guide of the party. Among the three candidates there were political and military profiles, but Nkurunziza finally opted for Evariste Ndayishimiye, Secretary General of the CNDD-FDD, whom he presented in society as a candidate at the beginning of this year.

There are serious accusations against Nkurunziza, not only in the political sphere, where the accusation of electoral manipulation, persecution and imprisonment of the opposition is a constant, but also in the field of human rights, with suspicions of torture and selective murders, something that some media such as the BBC have tried to clarify.

We will be left with the doubt as to what role Burundi would have played in the future under the leadership of its successor, the doubt as to its ability to influence politics. Ndayishimiye inherits an impoverished and socially and politically fractured country, with little weight and voice in the international and regional arena and without much prospect of improvement.

He will also be the first president with the new extended seven-year term, following the constitutional reform of 2018, so he will have plenty of time to decide whether to turn the country around or maintain the dark legacy of his political godfather. Nkurunziza's death frees him at least from the burden of his vigilance and influence if he chooses the former, which would be good news for Burundi and the region.