Optimism ahead of new round of negotiations in Vienna to restore nuclear deal

Talks in Vienna to try to reinstate the 2015 nuclear deal resumed this week after an 11-day break during which the delegations involved consulted with their governments on the current status of the negotiations.

Representatives of China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, Iran and the European Union have reconvened in the Austrian capital in a dialogue that began in April last year with the goals of getting Washington back into the treaty and Tehran to comply with agreed limitations on nuclear development. The US is involved in the talks indirectly.

After several rounds that ended without any agreement, the US has been optimistic about a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). "A pact that addresses the main concerns of all parties is on the horizon," a State Department spokesman told AFP. However, the US official warned that if the no-deal agreement is not reached in the coming weeks, "Iran's nuclear advances will make it impossible" for the US to return to the JCPOA. 

On the other hand, the Iranian side has admitted that "significant progress has been made in a number of areas". Saeed Khatibzadeh, spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, said that the answers the US brings to Vienna will determine when an agreement can be reached.

The rest of the actors involved have also announced major progress in the negotiations. Russia's representative, Mikhail Ulyanov, said that a draft of the final document has already been produced, although there are several points that need "more work". "The parties are five minutes away from the finish line," he told the Russian newspaper Kommersant.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the talks are at "the decisive moment" during an interview with The Washington Post. "We hope they will seize this opportunity," he added.

Several analysts have also expressed optimism ahead of the new session in Vienna. Diako Hosseini, who holds a PhD in regional studies, told Al Jazeera that this round "will probably be the final one". "What we can deduce so far is that the chances of the talks succeeding are higher than the chances of failure, unless the parties overreach in their final efforts to obtain more concessions," Hosseini said. 

The main sticking point between the US and Iran is sanctions. Tehran insists that Washington lift them in order to bring the JCPOA closer. In this regard, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson remarked during a press conference that "the Iranian delegation is in Vienna to remove the sanctions". Another obstacle preventing the resumption of the agreement is the nuclear infrastructure that Iran has established. According to Eric Brewer of the US non-proliferation watchdog Nuclear Threat Initiative, these two points are contentious because they "require concessions that neither side has been willing to make so far".

On sanctions, an indispensable aspect for Iran, the US decided to "moderate" some of them last week in order to boost negotiations. "We are issuing the sanctions waiver now for a simple reason: it will allow some of our international partners to have more detailed technical discussions to allow for cooperation (from Iran) that we think fits our interests," a senior official told EFE.

The move will, for example, allow other countries and foreign companies to work on civilian projects at the Arak heavy water reactor, the Tehran research reactor and the Bushehr nuclear plant. The decision 'should also facilitate the technical discussions necessary to support the JCPOA talks in Vienna', as indicated by the British, French and German negotiators. 

However, Tehran considers Washington's decision to be insufficient. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, accused the Biden administration on Twitter of continuing former president Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran.

Despite the progress announced by delegations in Vienna, there are many voices critical of the US's possible return to the nuclear deal. Earlier this week, coinciding with the start of the new round in Austria, a group of 33 Republican senators led by Ted Cruz warned President Joe Biden that they would thwart the implementation of any new nuclear deal with Iran if the administration does not allow Congress to review and vote on the terms of the deal. Senate Republicans have also warned that any deal with Iran would pose a risk to US national security. 

Israel also condemns progress on the nuclear deal. Naftali Bennett, the Israeli prime minister, declared before the new round began in Vienna that the deal "will not increase stability". "It will temporarily delay enrichment, but all of us in the region will pay a high and disproportionate price for it," he added. He also announced that Israel would maintain its freedom of action in any situation, "with or without an agreement". 

Since Trump abandoned the nuclear deal in 2018 and imposed sanctions on Iran, one of his administration's most controversial decisions, Tehran has breached the pact on numerous occasions. The Iranian regime announced in 2020 that it would no longer follow the restrictions, although it would continue to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN agency. In that year, Iran also exceeded the limit on the number of centrifuges for uranium production, raising fears in the West.