The Pacific: the next battlefield between the US and China?

The United States wants to return to being the hegemonic power in the Pacific region. At least, that's what can be deduced from Washington's latest manoeuvres. According to the White House's budget forecasts for 2021 and statements in Congress by various senior military officials, the American giant is seeking to become strong in a geopolitical region where, at present, it is China that has the upper hand.

Over the past few years, Beijing has gradually built up a well-equipped defence system along its coastline, where it has deployed numerous ballistic missile launching pads at its military bases. The Asian giant has been benefiting from a historical circumstance that has allowed it to carry out this rearmament without incurring in the violation of international treaties. The so-called INF Treaty (Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty) ratified in 1987 affected only the two great powers of the time, the United States and the Soviet Union. Thus, China was exempted from following this convention sealed at the end of the Cold War with the aim of limiting the military capacity of the main players.

So, over the last decades, Beijing has built up a very important military power based not only on land-based missile launching bases. The threat by sea and air completes what many defence analysts have often described as a large "nuclear triad".

Nuclear submarines under shelter

With regard to its maritime power, since 2018 China has had nuclear submarines in its fleet. The United States still has a clear lead in this area. However, in the long term, the Chinese military high command is aware that developing a powerful submarine fleet is an unavoidable condition for establishing its presence in the Pacific, and has been working towards this goal for decades.

A recent investigation by Forbes magazine also points out that the government of the Asian giant has set up a complex network of tunnels along its coasts in order to keep its nuclear submarines safe. According to the journalist specialised in security and defence H.I. Sutton, China has up to six of these facilities along its coastline, which would serve to withdraw its units in the event of an enemy attack.

One of the most important shelters is on Hainan Island, in the southern tip of the country. There, the Yulin naval base is located, one of the points where most activity has been recorded by submarines over the course of the last few months. A Reuters report published in May 2019 said that at least four with a capacity of up to 12 long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads were anchored in this enclave. The west coast of the United States, for example, would be within range if an eventual launch were made from near the coast of China. 

A new bomber?

In terms of air domination, the Asian giant is finalising the design of its most advanced model of fighter. This is the Xian H-20, a prototype that will significantly improve the capabilities of the current Xian H-6. This strategic bomber will have a range of up to 8000 kilometres (twice that of the H-6) and is expected to be launched towards the end of the year. That does not mean, however, that it will go into aviation service immediately.

It is estimated that this new aircraft will be able to carry up to 45,000 tons of payload. This will mean, according to the Wings Herald, that it will have the capacity to carry up to four supersonic cruise missiles.

China has repeatedly assured that its increasingly impressive nuclear arsenal is for purely defensive purposes, that is, it will never be used unless another country with nuclear capability attacks first. In spite of this, the United States has decided not to fall behind in the race and will soon make a show of force in the Pacific so that the Beijing Executive will be well aware of it. It will not be immediate, but it is very likely that, in the mid and long term, it will have the desired effect.

This dynamic of deterrence is not new. It is very similar to the situation that arose during the Cold War arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union, which culminated in what was called Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD); a hypothetical situation in which, at least in theory, any nuclear attack could be responded to by the power to which it was directed, so that both sides would end up suffering heavy casualties.

Currently, the United States is proposing two key measures to try to at least match China's war potential on the Pacific front. The first, according to Reuters, concerns the deployment of long-range cruise missiles derived from the Tomahawk model. The second, with the transfer of several units of a new model of missile designed to reach warships.

Tomahawk missiles, a major reinforcement for the Marines

According to budget documents accessed by Reuters, the Marine Corps has requested up to $125 million to buy up to 48 Tomahawk model missiles. A significant portion of that shipment is likely to end up in the Pacific region. 

The Tomahawk missile, manufactured by the U.S. arms company Raytheon, is a long-range cruise missile (with a range of up to 1,600 kilometres) capable of carrying a variety of nuclear warheads. 

The adaptability of missiles of this caliber is yet to be seen in the actions of the Marine Corps, accustomed to carrying out operations that require speed and maneuverability. However, it is anticipated that the Tomahawk will be used as a threat to China's ground-based launch sites.

A new anti-ship model

In addition to the aforementioned Tomahawks, the White House has been testing and perfecting, over the past few months, a new missile called the Naval Strike Missile, which has a somewhat shorter range but may be more suitable for operation from Marine Corps ships.

Like the Tomahawk, the NSM, as it is often abbreviated, is capable of carrying a powerful nuclear payload. For this new missile, manufactured by Raytheon and Norway's Kongsberg Defence Aerospace, the horizon is 2022 if tests continue to produce good results.

But what is the role of the Pacific countries in this rivalry between two superpowers? According to military strategy specialists James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, quoted by Reuters, the chain of islands stretching from Japan to Indonesia could be exploited by any geopolitical competitor to try to isolate China's maritime power.

The United States, in addition to controlling the island of Guam, already has military bases on Japanese territory, in South Korea and in Singapore. Moreover, in recent years, especially since Donald Trump came to the White House, Washington has significantly increased its military relations with Taiwan, which appears to be a key partner in the region.

The Philippines, for its part, has been a traditional ally of the United States. However, the treatment between the two countries has deteriorated considerably during Rodrigo Duterte's presidential term. The Asian leader, precisely, has turned more towards China and Russia. He has even gone so far as to cancel bilateral agreements for joint military exercises.  

It should be remembered that the Philippines is not the only country that views Beijing sympathetically in the area. The Chinese Government has significantly increased its influence in the South-East Asian region in general through the creation of the largest free trade area in the world, an economic entity extending across all ASEAN countries. Although the economic and military sides are different - more so when it comes to China - the geopolitical network that President Xi Jinping has been building around it should not be underestimated.

This game of diplomatic friendship and enmity adds another unknown to a geopolitical game that, in the next few years, may prove to be one of the most important in the rivalry between the two world's leading powers.