Pandemic disrupts current model of globalization
The COVID-19 pandemic has served as a catalyst for processes that were already underway in the world. If globalization had begun to be challenged in recent years by relocations and increasing inequality in developed countries, the current health crisis had accelerated that process. Teleworking is another element that has emerged strengthened from this difficult situation. Although these trends have remained outside the radar of the Strategic Panorama 2020 developed by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE), since the analysis was closed in January, during the presentation of the document this Tuesday in a virtual session the speakers mentioned these new trends.
"Many countries had already included the threat of a pandemic in their foresight analyses. This scenario has been discussed since the 1990s," said Felipe Sahagún during his speech. This journalist is the author of the first chapter of the IEEE's Strategic Panorama 2020, which addresses the main challenges facing the world this year: democracy in crisis, protests around the world, forgotten conflicts (such as Afghanistan, Ukraine, Libya or Korea) or the risk of a return to protectionist policies.
"Globalization is unstoppable, although there will now be steps backwards and production chains will be limited, there will be no return to past models. It is likely that Asian integration will be reinforced by the recovery of part of production to the West," said Colonel José Pardo de Santayana during his speech at the presentation of Panorama 2020.
The second chapter is written by the diplomat Ricardo López-Aranda, Spanish Ambassador to the Ivory Coast. This section deals with the growing importance of Asia in the world. "This continent is going to gain greater importance in the future, at a time when the United States is retreating to its borders," said López-Aranda in his video conference speech from Abidjan. Regarding the impact of COVID-19 in Africa, the diplomat explained that the pandemic is having a lower incidence in the continent than in the rest of the world, although the causes of this phenomenon are still unknown. "There are certain elements of resilience in the region, such as a large volume of rural population, but also many vulnerabilities," he said.
North Africa was one of the territories acting most quickly. Morocco, Tunisia or Algeria closed their air and sea connections in mid-March. Fears of a collapse of their health system led them to take extreme precautions against the virus. In the Middle East, infections have also been lower than in Spain or Italy and strict containment measures have been taken. "The pandemic has arrived in a social context of internal transformations in the area. The countries have a great health, economic and political challenge ahead of them," said María Dolores Algora, professor at the San Pablo CEU University, who prepared the chapter of Panorama 2020 dedicated to the strategic challenges in the Mediterranean.
In the current health crisis, all countries have to deal with similar problems, although each region has its own particularities. In the case of the European Union, the pandemic has demonstrated its logistical incapacity. "We were forced to turn to suppliers outside the EU and there was a lack of foresight. A health strategy is needed at European level to deal with these threats," explained Professor Rafael Calduch, Professor of International Public Law at the Complutense University and author of the fifth chapter of the report, dedicated to the political dilemmas and challenges facing the European Union. Calduch has predicted a very complicated scenario in the coming years for the United Kingdom, which will have to deal with the economic crisis following the pandemic at the same time as it consummates its exit from the EU.
The last part of Panorama 2020, although no less important, is a section dedicated to strategy and technology. "China is a large country, with a large population, and is becoming very wealthy. Furthermore, it is beginning to develop a technological capacity capable of confronting Western supremacy," explained General Enrique Silvela, co-author of the chapter on emerging technologies with Professor Gonzalo León, professor of Telecommunications Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Madrid. "Predicting what is going to happen is difficult, but we have tried. We have incorporated charts from consulting firms that indicate when the maximum technological productivity will be reached," said León.