A peace plan without Ukraine or Europe reignites tensions and plunges Zelensky into an internal crisis

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has received the peace plan negotiated between the United States and Russia, which involves the surrender of Ukrainian territory that has not been invaded by Putin.

Meanwhile, a Russian bombing of a civilian building has killed at least 26 people. Russia announces the capture of the railway junction at Kupyansk, in the Kharkiv region, and the European Union demands to be included in the negotiations, in addition to Ukraine itself.

These are the latest developments that we will analyse with María Senovilla, in Ukraine.

María, what are the initial reactions in Ukraine to a plan negotiated without them?

A plan negotiated without them and without Europe. The initial impression is that this plan is not a peace plan, but a capitulation and, if I may say so, the most absurd of all those that have been attempted before. You mentioned the 28 points that the document would contain, including Ukraine's renunciation of NATO, which would also have to be enshrined in its constitution.

It also undertakes not to host NATO bases, as many would remain in Poland, across the border. It also provides for a 40% reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army, which would be limited to around 600,000 soldiers, and obliges it not to possess long-range weapons or develop nuclear weapons.

What does this mean?

It means that if, at the end of this war, in a few months or a few years, it doesn't matter, Russia launches another attack on Ukraine, Ukraine will not be able to defend itself.

And if we look at history, we know that this kind of thing happens often, as has already happened, for example, in Chechnya. This 28-point document contains other elements. It also provides for the complete cession of the occupied territories and the so-called ‘grey zone’, that grey line that belongs to neither side and which Russia would like to control.

This would involve the provinces of Crimea, the two provinces of Donbass, as well as the already occupied part of Gerson, which represents about half, and that of Zaporille, where Europe's largest nuclear power plant is also located, which would be put back into service and whose profits would be divided equally between Ukraine and Russia.

This document refers to reconstruction and investments of up to £200 billion, of which £100 billion would be provided by the United States in exchange for 50% of the reconstruction contracts and £100 billion would come from Russian assets frozen in Europe, in which case the profits would go to Russia. This would be like an investment in Ukraine for Russian oligarchs, which would not cost them much effort.

This document also provides for the lifting of sanctions against Russia and its reintegration into the G-8, the exchange of prisoners of war and a broad amnesty for all participants in the war, the return of children deported by Russia, and the calling of elections 100 days after the signing of this document, which are currently on hold.

It should be remembered that Zelensky's term of office ended in May 2024, but the Ukrainian Constitution prevents elections from being held in the midst of war, not to mention that all these occupied territories, where Ukrainians with the right to vote live, would not be able to exercise that right. It has been a year and a half since this electoral process took place, as there is currently no viable way to include all voters and carry it out with a minimum of security.

This is not a peace plan, but a capitulation, and it seems that the United States has waited to present it at a time when Ukrainian domestic politics is more vulnerable than ever. During these four years of war, there has never been a scandal of this magnitude. Last week, we detailed this corruption case that has come to light, involving a businessman close to Zelensky and all the companies in the atomic and nuclear energy sector, which are alleged to have received bribes worth millions.

Obviously, the corruption scandal has spread beyond Ukraine's borders and made headlines around the world, but here it has spread across the country and the government is currently in a very vulnerable position. A few days ago, the political party met to decide on what measures to take. For now, nothing is clear.

The situation is delicate and the Zelensky government is currently in a vulnerable position. It seems that the United States has taken advantage of this moment to propose this plan, which was drafted by Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in collaboration with other Russian interlocutors, without the participation of Ukraine or any other European country.

The European Union is Zelensky's only support. It wants a place at the negotiating table, and we hope that Trump and Putin will agree to let the European Union have a seat at the table or that it will be content to foot the bill, because in recent conflicts, the European Union has had no choice but to foot the bill.

This is what Trump has been repeating since he took office as President of the United States last winter. At no point has he invited Europe to the negotiating table; he has only mentioned it in relation to paying the bills. And this new document is further proof that for the United States, participation and dialogue with Europe are secondary and that they want to talk directly with Russia and, above all, share the benefits, because in every document presented, in every peace plan presented, there is this part about sharing the benefits, sharing the contracts, reconstruction, exploitation of rare minerals, they are pursuing their own interests while blatantly ignoring Europe, and there has been no change in this regard since he became President of the United States.

María, two questions of concern. First, Russia has announced that it has taken the Kupiansk railway junction. What does that mean? And then I will ask you about the latest attacks, because one of them has caused many deaths.

The Ukrainian army denies that Russia has taken the Kupiansk railway junction, and I can tell you that I had lunch with a sergeant who commands troops there, in the city of Kupiansk, and he told me exactly the opposite. He told me that at the moment, it is probably the only point on the front where Ukraine is pushing back Russian troops. He showed me maps, and I was able to see a little bit how the advance was going.

They have cleared a large part of the territory around the city and are now starting these battles, these urban battles, to clear the Russian-occupied parts of Kupiansk house by house, which do not include the railway junction. When Russia announced this, Ukrainian military spokespeople were quick to deny it, and I received this first-hand account. From what he showed me, it seems that they could push back the Russian army even further in the coming days

And the attacks on civilians continue, don't they?

They are continuing, they are not letting up, and it does not look like they will improve in the coming days.

You mentioned this attack, which has already killed more than 26 people, but there are probably 50, as people are missing under the rubble. That's right, it happened on Tuesday night, when Russia launched a massive attack with missiles and drones. They targeted residential areas and civilian infrastructure in the city of Ternopil, and among the targets destroyed was a building, a large residential building, where all the residents were asleep.

The images we received in the morning show the building still on fire, body bags piled up in front of the building, among which were at least three children. But there are more than 20 people believed to be under the rubble, and the clearing process must be done very slowly. Some parts have to be cleared by hand, because if some of the people trapped are still alive, they would not survive if you removed them with machines.

It is a huge building. Some parts are being cleared by hand to see if any survivors can be found, but rescue operations are currently ongoing and the situation does not look very encouraging. In addition, there have been 100 casualties and these attacks have not stopped, as we have suffered another massive attack that has affected the cities of Zaporilla, Odessa, Cherniz, Kherson and Kharkiv, killing five people and injuring at least nine.

And there seems to be no truce in sight. Russia is currently attacking the towns furthest from the front line, targeting their civilian and energy infrastructure. In Kyiv, where I am currently based, I have no electricity at home. Here, power cuts are scheduled so as not to overload the electricity grid, and on some days there are up to 16 hours of blackouts per day.

Here, it is more or less structured and the schedules are respected, but I have just returned from Donbass where the electricity was cut off without warning and we did not know when it would be restored. We had power cuts for 48 hours straight, without heating. And this is what awaits the civilian population, both in the towns behind the front line and those further away from it, as winter approaches and has already begun, because we already had the first snow yesterday and the first sub-zero temperatures.