Pedro Canales: "In Algeria the military have power, but they do not exercise it in a unified way"
In the latest edition of "De Cara al Mundo", on Onda Madrid, we had the participation of Pedro Canales, international analyst and collaborator of Atalayar, who analysed Macron's latest visit to Algeria and the internal situation that the North African country is experiencing.
Macron's visit, taking into account the entourage he is bringing with him, is a very high-ranking visit with ambitious objectives...
Indeed, it is a visit that carries a lot of weight. Macron is bringing with him the crème de la crème of the business and cultural elite, as well as diplomacy and administration. For my part, I would like to point out that there are problems between Paris and Algiers, but they are not as serious as we are led to believe. There are historical issues, the common memory, whether to apologise for the century of colonisation, but that is not the main issue. In fact, France has the upper hand in the relationship with Algeria. In addition to the large number of high-ranking officials, including ministers, gendarmes, military, military, Algerian businessmen who have dual nationality, it is in France that the elite invest, buy factories, deposit their money in banks, send their young people to study. Paris knows the intricacies of corruption and nepotism in the country. The military political regime, as Macron defined it a few months ago, needs France and not the other way around. Algiers is presenting Macron's visit as a victory, but frankly I don't think this is the case.
We can remain only in the bilateral vision or we can dream that there are coordinated European objectives, for example, that France can encourage Algeria to move closer to the European side and not so much to Russia, even, if I dare say it, that there is some intermediation, where Spain and the US could be present, so that Morocco and Algeria can recover relations.
Yes, in a way Macron is going on behalf of the European Union. The European Union seen from the French prism, which is perhaps not the same as that seen by the Germans, the Italians or the Spanish. Frankly speaking, if France needed Algerian gas, as has been said in many media, it would agree to open the Spain-France gas pipeline, but instead it has kept it under wraps because France wants to maintain its nuclear industry and if possible sell a nuclear power plant to Algeria, which will need it sooner or later.
What France needs most is water to cool its nuclear power plants, since 50% of them are shut down for lack of water rather than gas...
That is so, maybe in the not so distant future there could be a south-north gas pipeline and south-north water supply, as was Gaddafi's dream, making the Sahara a lake and collecting its deep waters, but that scenario is still a dream. Macron does go on behalf of the European Union, but in terms of mediation I frankly see it as wrong because both in Rabat and in Algiers Macron is listened to and taken seriously, the French president has strength, France has a lot of weight, but the crisis that has developed between Morocco and Algeria is so deep and has reached unsuspected limits, already very deteriorated personal relations, that I see mediation as wrong. There are voices saying that there will be a summit between Mohamed VI and Tebboune sponsored by Macron. First of all, Mohamed VI speaks on behalf of Morocco, he is the head of state, but Tebboune, who is the Algerian head of state, does not know if he has the power to say, since it is the military who are in charge and they will never meet with the Moroccan head of state, they could meet with the military, where there could be mediation by the United States and perhaps indirectly by France with the military, but with the politicians I see it as worse. As for Algeria's relationship with Europe, Algeria cannot live without Europe, we are the ones who buy its products and sell to it. Apart from the military industry, part of which is owned by the Russians, but the rest, which is the foundation of the Algerian economy, depends on Europe, so it is Algeria that will benefit most from this rapprochement. However, the problem with Spain is a case apart, either we have made a mistake or our politicians have not known how to do it, Algeria only raises its voice with the weak, but not with the strong.
Of course, with Germany and France, which maintain the same position as Spain in supporting the Moroccan proposal on the Sahara as a real solution that could put an end to a conflict that has been going on for years, he does not interfere with those countries.
Of course not, nor with the United States, which is the only country that recognises sovereignty, because the United States is much more than Spain, France or Germany, nor has the slightest criticism occurred to them, not only for the Sahara but also for Palestine, which the Algerians hold as a matter of principle, the United States is the only country that recognises that Israel's capital is Jerusalem and not Tel Aviv. In short, with the weak it raises its voice and even exerts force, as has happened in the case of Spain, but with the strongest it does not.
It is very simplistic to think that France is trying to take advantage of the fact that relations with Spain and gas are in a bad situation in order to, as Italian President Mario Draghi did, try to get gas and try to "annoy" Spain.
Indeed, with Algeria there is an underlying problem of feelings, of betrayals, of suspicions, of suspicions, you were with me before, now you are against me. In short, it is worth remembering that, of all the countries in the western Mediterranean basin, the country that most supported the Algerian liberation struggle against French colonialism was Spain, even under Franco's dictatorship, not to mention civil society. The Algerians know this and only bring it up when things are going well; when there are problems, they don't talk about it.
Or with the attention of Brahim Ghali, leader of the Polisario, in Spain, which cost us a crisis with Morocco precisely for the same reason that we have now with Algeria, not explaining the reasons for what is being done to our partners.
That's right.
The internal situation in Algeria, you defined earlier that Tebboune is the President of the Republic, but it is the military of the National Security Council who continue to hold power in Algeria. It is true that there is a new constitution, elections have taken place, but after the situation caused by the pandemic, the economic situation is quite delicate. According to your information, what is the internal situation in Algeria?
It is a very unbalanced situation, there is no single centre of power and there is still a lot of infighting to see who is pulling the strings of power. There are several decision-making centres that coordinate with each other, especially at the military level, the secret services, the general staff, the military regions, which have a lot of weight and are sometimes not taken into account, and the political part, which since the change of constitution and the re-election of Tebboune as president has taken on a certain importance. There is still no centre that coordinates everything, in fact, the dispersion of the intelligence services themselves, which are from the whole region of Western Europe, North Africa and the Mediterranean, is noticeable; it is the only country that does not have a command centre. Normally, there is a command centre that coordinates everything, even if it is sometimes a little administrative. In Algeria, this figure existed for 25 years and was removed with the last attempt to seize power with the fifth mandate, and from then on, it broke down and has not been able to do so again. So it is true that the military has power, but it does not exercise it in a unified and unanimous way; there are several centres and several struggles. Another thing to bear in mind is that the military and the elites live off the sale of hydrocarbons to the West, and it is with the money obtained from these transactions that they buy weapons, create their own networks and lobby internally. So it is a half colossus, but with feet of clay, and as soon as the waters rise, the mud decomposes, as has happened in the last three years, which they say they have managed to control but which is still latent.