Pedro Sánchez and Hungary's Viktor Orban, the dissenting voices for Rearming Europe
- The German Ursula von der Leyen is leading the rearmament
- Investment mechanisms to boost the European defence industry
The Spanish language has coined the phrase ‘a la fuerza ahorcan’ (by force they hang) when one wants to express categorically that a decision is accepted reluctantly or something is done against one's will... but that, nevertheless, there is no choice but to comply due to unavoidable demands.
The above is closely related to the ReArming Europe plan and the White Paper on the Defence of Europe-Preparedness for 2030, documents presented on 19 March in Brussels by the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the EU, former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, together with the Commissioner for Defence and Space, former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius.
The White Paper establishes a new approach to the defence of the Old Continent and identifies investment needs. In contrast, the Rearm Europe plan is an ambitious programme to strengthen pan-European defence capabilities by bringing new financial levers to the fore. Both papers were debated the following day by the leaders of the EU countries at the European Council chaired by Portugal's António Costa.
At the entrance to the conclave, President Pedro Sánchez told journalists that ‘I don't like the term rearmament at all, I don't agree with it’. He added that ‘we have to talk and address our citizens in a different way when we talk about the need to improve European security and defence capabilities’. From his words, he gave the impression that he was willing to fight to eliminate that word.
But when he left the meeting several hours later, Sánchez repeated once again that ‘I don't like the term rearm’. From his words it is clear that the president was not successful in his attempt to eliminate the word rearm. It could be because the White Paper details that European nations have to equip themselves with advanced artillery systems to attack long-distance targets; large-calibre projectiles, ammunition and missiles; an integrated air defence shield against aircraft, ballistic and cruise missiles and also unmanned systems capable of operating autonomously. Whether or not you want it, whether or not you look for one euphemism or another, the intention is to rearm Europe.
The German Ursula von der Leyen is leading the rearmament
So, barring last-minute changes, President Sánchez has no choice but to give in and return to the usual Spanish foreign policy of following behind, given his very limited capacity to influence. What he will have to do from his point of view is to swallow the bitter pill, one more of the many that he is accustomed to swallowing thanks to his unconditional ally and fraternal companion in misfortune, the fugitive Carles Puigdemont, who is increasingly joined by the cohorts of the small groups that keep him propped up in the presidential chair.
It is clear that defence issues are not topics that President Sánchez likes, nor are they topics to which he has devoted sufficient time during his almost eight years in the Moncloa Palace. On the international stage, just enough. On the domestic stage, he limits himself to his obligatory presence at military events on the occasion of the national holiday on 12 October in Madrid. And, of course, to the formal video conferences at Christmas, which he holds for a few minutes with the heads of the military contingents deployed outside Spanish borders: Iraq, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, the Indian Ocean, Romania, Turkey...
The exception is the occasional quick visit every few years to a military deployment abroad. Oh! We mustn't forget that he chairs the meetings of the National Security Council once or twice a year. And that his very few visits to barracks, ships, air bases or military installations can be counted on the fingers of one hand or very little more. This handful of meetings includes none with the Chief of Defence Staff (JEMAD), Admiral Teodoro López Calderón, his main military advisor since the naval officer took up the post just over four years ago.
It could be that, taking into account the plans in Brussels, Sánchez has summoned the admiral any day in the last two weeks to hold an office in Moncloa. But no such meeting appears on the presidential agenda. Apparently, the head of government has not even been curious enough to hear from the Chief of the Defence Staff about the ins and outs of the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum, which Admiral López Calderón attended on 11 March, having been invited by his French counterpart, General Thierry Burkhard, on behalf of President Emmanuel Macron. There, the top military chiefs of the EU and NATO nations discussed European rearmament and the possible deployment of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
It seems reasonable that Pedro Sánchez, before going to his meeting with the other EU leaders on 20 March to discuss the White Paper on Defence and the Re-Arm Europe plan, would have spoken with his director of the National Security Department, Air Force General Loreto Gutiérrez Hurtado. But also, and above all, with Admiral López Calderón, who has unrivalled knowledge and experience. Well, it's not going to happen.
Investment mechanisms to boost the European defence industry
The package of measures contained in the Rearm Europe plan is aimed at providing EU Member States with the financial resources to give the necessary boost to their respective national defence budgets. Faced with the possible abandonment of military aid by the Trump administration, Brussels is bringing investment mechanisms to the fore to boost the production capacities of the continent's defence industries and to be able to realise the most critical and urgent sovereign weapons and equipment systems to increase their deterrence.
The White Paper identifies investment needs to continue European support for Ukraine as quickly as possible. Such a commitment is not contemplated by Viktor Orban's Hungary, which has disengaged from its EU partners and refuses to apply sanctions against Russia or provide aid to the Zelenski government. However, the joint document by Kaja Kallas and Andrius Kubilius brings to the fore the financial instrument Rearm, to reinforce arms production and support member states with loans of up to 150 billion euros, but not with non-repayable grants, as championed by President Sánchez.
What Rearm does allow is the use of the national escape clause for a period of four years, in order to include large increases in expenditure in national budgets. It also allows for greater flexibility in the transfer of funds and investments from, for example, regional cohesion funds to the defence sector. And it opens the door for the European Investment Bank to increase its annual funding to the military industries by up to 2 billion. According to Kaja Kallas, ‘what we invest in defence reflects the value we place on it, which over the past decades we have not given it enough value, so now we must invest more’.
NATO, which together with the United States has insisted on the need to raise defence budgets to 2 per cent of GDP and beyond, has been silent recently. This is the case of the Alliance's Secretary General, Dutchman Mark Rutte, but not of his second in command, the former Defence Minister of North Macedonia, Radmila Shekerinska. The day after the presentation in Brussels of the White Paper and the Rearm Europe plan, Shekerinska appeared before the European Parliament's Subcommittee on Security and Defence and congratulated MEPs on President Von der Leyen's initiative to openly support increased investment in defence.
On the subject of cooperation between NATO and the EU, the Deputy Secretary General of NATO has stated that both organisations are ‘natural partners’, that the transatlantic relationship continues to be ‘the cornerstone of European security’, while at the same time emphasising the desirability of building ‘a stronger European pillar within a strong NATO’. From her perspective, the EU must ‘take advantage of its economic influence’ to increase the production of weapons systems, innovation and military mobility ‘in accordance with NATO's plans, capabilities and military standards’.
In the current geopolitical context of instability and threats from multiple directions, Radmila Shekerinska has shown herself to be in favour of ‘involving non-EU allies’ in Brussels-led defence initiatives, for example, Australia, Canada, Korea, India, Japan, Norway, Turkey and the United Kingdom, which, curiously, has the support of President Sánchez.