Possible deployment of Russian military structure in Cuba, says intelligence analyst Juan Antonio Blanco

Given the proliferation of international military conflict, the presence of Russian Foreign Minister Serguei Lavrov in Havana leads the Think Tank Cuba Siglo XXI to believe that it is highly probable that a possible deployment of Russian military structures on the island will take place. Or, in other words, that military equipment is being installed in strategic positions in the region, thanks to the permissiveness of communist-bureaucratic states, now converted into new models of "state monopoly capitalism", controlled by military power elites.  

This is the explanation given to Atalayar by Juan Antonio Blanco, former Cuban diplomat at the United Nations, former senior member of the Americas Department of the Central Committee (the influential apparatus in charge of Cuba's relations with the continent), current intelligence analyst in Miami and director of the Cuban Conflict Observatory. 

Could you explain what Cuba Siglo XXI is and the reasons for the presence of a Cuban-American delegation in Madrid?  

Cuba Siglo XXI is a Spanish association, registered in 2011, which we have activated and re-launched with force at the moment, as a geostrategic intelligence "Think Tank", a laboratory of ideas. We are intelligence analysts who, once the information has been gathered, provide a margin of probability for future scenarios that may occur. It also operates in the United States and we try to contribute, through the analysis of accurate and up-to-date information, to all the actors that have an impact on the Cuban reality (civil society, opposition, human rights activists, foreign businessmen, international governments, social networks). We plan to create the Geopolitical Observatory of Latin America, through a network of prospective researchers, in order to develop a comprehensive vision of the new conflictive phenomena. 

Are there any recent areas of cooperation between Washington and Havana on migration issues? Tell me about the US government's commitment to constructive dialogue with Cuba. 

There is an objective on the part of President Joe Biden to engage in a fruitful dialogue and constructive engagement with Cuba. US participation in these talks makes it clear to avoid junctures such as the one I am about to explain: in the last two years, more than 450,000 people have arrived in the US in an irregular manner. Between 10,000 and 15,000 dollars has cost each migrant between 10,000 and 15,000 dollars to be part of this illegal human trafficking network. This adventure (transnational criminal activity) must be confronted through Nicaragua, without ignoring the operations of the coyotes of the Mexican cartels that have come into play, and the sharing of profits with the Cuban authorities. I am not going to ignore the legitimacy of the requests for temporary residence permits, the so-called "Parole migratorio", as long as there is a sponsor to manage the visa process. 

The current exodus of Cubans to the United States is a fact. Could we say that Cuba is a failed state in the face of the changes that are taking place in the system? 

We are facing a novel model of systemic crisis. An abrupt change in the system. In Cuba, a transition has taken place that no one is aware of: we have gone from a communist state to the governance of a mafia state, prone to expand throughout Latin America, and which exercises control over countries under the umbrella of drug trafficking. I am referring to the entry on the scene of meritocratic and autocratic criminal organisations that operate with impunity. Europe is not aware of the political and economic change in Cuba at the moment. The authorities are turning their backs on the needs of the population and one only has to look at the UN indicators which allow us to make estimates and which allude to figures such as 4% of the Cuban population having emigrated; 70% living below the poverty line; inflation means that one dollar is equivalent to 200 pesos; a total of 15 dollars (3,250 pesos) is the average salary of a Cuban and one pound of sugar is equivalent to 200 pesos, to give some examples. The unstoppable hotel construction that over-invoices makes us think of alleged capital laundering. One wonders why the Banco Financiero Internacional de Cuba (BFIC), owned by GAESA (a central emporium of military power), is never subjected to audits, its management is beyond all control. There is no investment in Cuba, neither from the Russians nor from the Chinese, because no agreement materialises into anything. 

Given this situation of a very poor economy, does the "Think Tank" foresee that there could be new popular uprisings on the island? 

Under these defined conditions, it is highly probable and on a larger scale that a July 11 could happen at any moment because the country's energy matrix has collapsed. This scenario is contemplated (popular protests) because "black swans" are unexpected. The regime knows, now more than ever, the population's potential for rebellion, but there is no room for so many in the dungeons. It would cost some 10 billion dollars to build up this hodgepodge of scrap metal (referring to the energy industry). The foreign debt contracted by the Cuban regime amounts to 46 billion dollars. A second embargo is possible: that of unpaid creditors seeking foreign assets. Cuba's economic sources today are exports of medical services (down 70%) and remittances, which CIMEX controls. GAESA owns the country along with BFIC. The sugar industry is the mirror of the regime's great failure. Tell me whether or not it is likely that Cubans will wake up one day and say: "It's over". 

Let's talk about the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis. Do you think it is possible that there are common military exercises in the region or a deployment of Russian forces in an attempt to activate the bases in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua? 

There is a chronology of events over the last three months. We work with the Cuban military and our adviser, the Cuban general exiled in the United States, Rafael del Pino, refers to an analysis of the presence of two Iranian warships docked off the Brazilian coast, and the trips by first Iranian and then Russian officials to Havana, Nicaragua and Venezuela as a way of flexing their muscles vis-à-vis the US, despite the latter's warnings. It could also be a matter of hidden strategic alliances at a time of war in which we are immersed. Let it be clear that Tehran does not put money into Cuba. There are 7,000 kilometres of undersea cable for internet connections between Europe and the Western Hemisphere. Our analysis is that a war team is taking up strategic positions. A test to see if warships from hostile countries like Russia could make the full crossing to Latin America.  

What projections do you make about how many major international actors will remain on the new world order game board, with the inevitability of a spread of conflict? 

The invasion of Ukraine has to be seen in a global context because the conflict as such is beginning to take root in Latin America and Europe. The violent act emerges in the popular uprising to destabilise the system and block the country in question. The new political strategy is to hold citizens hostage in order to force governments to make decisions. Twenty-first century socialism uses discontent and its right to demonstrate to organise violent protests. They rely on three factors of participation: control of the armed forces; control of the judiciary and parliament, as well as control of opposition groups to the regime. Anti-system actors operate in the streets, and in this popular demand it should not be forgotten that elements of the government itself are involved. 

Carmen Chamorro García, director of the CIP and ACPE, with a diploma in International Relations from the SEI.