Power balance game in Libya

The war in Libya, open since 2014, continues, pitting the faction of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and its armed militias against the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar and associated with the other Executive based in the eastern city of Tobruk. 

It continues to develop, despite recent calls for a ceasefire in the face of the global coronavirus pandemic, the last offensive launched in April 2019 by the LNA against the Tripoli stronghold, the headquarters of the LNA, and the clash is entrenched. Haftar's forces were trying to break up the last major resistance nucleus of Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj's government, but the latter, supported by Turkey and Qatar, is still resisting, even regaining some enclaves like Sorman and Sabratha after the armed clashes in recent weeks. 

The declared objective of the LNA and Khalifa Haftar is to demolish the resistance in the tripolitan capital, where they denounce that radical jihadist elements are lodged, in order to be able to carry out a democratic process later on. Meanwhile, there is talk from the GNA of a rebel coup d'état by the marshal. All this within a confrontation that has become an international issue due to the intervention of foreign powers that have taken part on each side. In this sense, the GNA has been supported by Qatar, Turkey and Italy, as well as by the United Nations (UN), which has recognised it since 2016; meanwhile, the LNA receives the support of Russia, France, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. 

In recent days, due to the recent counter-offensives of the LNA in western Libya, several countries of the international community have called for a political process to end the conflict in Libya. This move has deepened suspicions that the West may be supporting or allowing Turkish intervention to create a new balance of power in western Libya that could convince the eastern region and the tribes that support the LNA of the limited viability of a military solution, forcing Haftar to accept an agreement that could accommodate the objectives of the Islamists and their international and local supporters. It should be noted that GNA's main partner is Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey, which last year reached an agreement with Fayez Sarraj to provide this military support through the Turkish Army and pro-Turkish paid mercenaries, who came from the Syrian war and were attached to former branches of terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda, as reported by various media; and also to a pact to distribute areas of economic influence in Mediterranean waters, which are very interesting for the Erdogan Administration. 

In this sense, there is concern about the possible drift towards a growing role for Islamists in Libya. Meanwhile, the political initiative launched by the Speaker of the Libyan Parliament, Aguilah Saleh, also aimed at the cessation of hostilities, proves the seriousness of the international community's position to find a fair political agreement that takes into account the balance of the country's military forces and breaks with the Skhirat agreement, which has consolidated the Islamists' takeover. 

On this point, various experts point to the interest of several countries in letting Turkey support the GNA so that Haftar can be convinced that there is no viability in the military option. Something that the LNA's marshal does not seem to be predisposed to.

The Parliament of Tobruk headed by Aguilah Saleh obtains its international legitimacy from this Skhirat pact, even though its legitimacy was supposed to expire one year after the elections.

Some observers consider that Haftar's latest differences with the Tobruk Parliament do not benefit the axis formed by the LNA and the Executive in the eastern city; while the other civil organisations that obtain their legitimacy from the Skhirat political agreement are in Tripoli and Haftar has been fighting against them for over a year.

Fathi al-Mrimi, Saleh's media adviser, referred to the latest developments and said they need "the UN Mission in Libya and the international community to monitor this initiative by Saleh, with the participation of the major powers, including Russia and the United States, to help the Libyan people out of their crisis". 

This past weekend, Aguilah Saleh reiterated her proposal, which was announced at the end of April last year coinciding with the withdrawal of the LNA from various fronts due to the growing Turkish intervention on the side of the GNA militias, which allegedly take arms, mercenaries and extremists from terrorist groups such as Daesh and the al-Nusra Front (linked to Al-Qaeda).

In a statement issued on the occasion of the Muslim festival of Eid al-Fitr, Saleh said that "the political process has been blocked by ignoring the outcome of the Berlin conference (at which Haftar and Sarraj agreed on a ceasefire), and in light of the risks of foreign invasion, cessation of oil production and exports, of falling oil prices, high exchange rates, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on international economies and the takeover of the Central Bank of Libya, the National Petroleum Agency and branches of foreign banks by the illegitimate Presidential Council and other armed groups, militias and formations; everything that serves the interests of these groups and allows them to consolidate their control of the capital and continue to plunder the wealth of the Libyans".

"Our success in restructuring the Presidential Council, forming a national government and achieving a mechanism for distributing national wealth will enable us to provide budgeted funds to meet citizens' needs and put them on the path to a dignified life, and support efforts to improve the military institution so that it can carry out its role in fighting terrorism, protecting the borders and preserving the security of the state," the Speaker of Parliament in Tobruk added in an official communication. 

It should be noted that Saleh's initiative was rejected by the LNA, and this was reflected in Marshal Khalifa Haftar's speech to his troops on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, in which he urged them to continue fighting. All of this when, precisely, the Libyan Parliament and its president have been among the Army's most prominent allies since 2014. 

To convince Haftar to support his initiative, Saleh needs to secure international guarantees so that the scenario of the Skhirat agreement is not repeated, because that pact was the reason for the outbreak of the Tripoli siege battle launched by the LNA more than a year ago, as the Islamists and their international allies were planning to impose a new agreement adapted to the wishes of the Muslim Brotherhood through the Ghedames conference, which was cancelled when the offensive on the Tripolitan capital was declared. 

When the LNA launched the last operation on Tripoli on April 4, 2019, it was accused of undermining the political process, but political figures affiliated to the LNA said the launch of the offensive was in response to the blow against the understandings reached in Abu Dhabi between Haftar and the LNA's Prime Minister, Fayez Sarraj.

This understanding allowed the LNA to enter Tripoli and hold presidential legislative elections. The Islamists turned their backs on these agreements because they realised that their popularity was declining among Libyans due to their involvement and support of terrorist groups in various regions of the country, and because of the deterioration in living conditions and the spread of chaos and corruption. 

Since the outbreak of the last offensive on the Tripolitan capital more than a year ago, the international community has been trying to resume the political process and reach an agreement that would guarantee the participation of all political groups in the government; even allowing Turkey's intervention in some way, despite its illegality (including the supply of arms).  

The international community is indirectly trying to achieve a military balance that could force the LNA back into the political process, especially after Haftar refused to sign a Russian- and Turkish-sponsored ceasefire agreement last January, which seemed to him not to take into account the military superiority of the LNA. Countries such as the US and the UK are accused of being biased in favour of Islamists despite the chaos caused by the latter in Libya. The Skhirat agreement is seen by many as an international "reward" for the Muslim Brotherhood for its coup against the democratic path in 2014.

Meanwhile, the countries that support the Islamists are betting on weakening the army's position militarily; their main allies, Turkey and Qatar, are focusing their efforts on provoking dissension in the alliance between the army and the parliament in Tobruk and also reducing Haftar's role in the talks, to make way for Saleh, who is perceived as less intransigent and closer to the Islamists themselves. 

On Monday, Turkish and Qatari media tried to extend the support of 11 MPs for Saleh's initiative and highlight the differences between the LNA and Parliament. Various pro-GNA media have launched a campaign aimed at Khalifa Haftar, belittling its victories by highlighting the army's recent losses, such as those in the enclaves of Sabratha and Sorman. But Saleh's latest statement, emphasizing continued support for the LNA in its war on terror, went so far as to reduce the chances of success of these anti-Anglican campaigns between Haftar's LNA and the eastern Tobruk Executive. 

"There is no disagreement between Field Marshal Haftar and Aguilah Saleh, as some would have us believe," said media adviser Fathi al-Mrimi. "We agreed to support the army and free all Libyan lands from terrorism, but this is a political initiative and all solutions can be put forward. The only proposal that will end the Libyan crisis and achieve stability and the interest of the Libyan people will be supported by all," he said.