Pro-Iranian militias, the new threat to Iraq after the future US exit
Iraq, a country with a 60% Shiite population, continues to have a large number of militias that follow this Islamic branch of Islam, which worry countries such as the United States due to their fluid relations with Iran. Following the departure of foreign troops from the country on 18 December 2011, the date on which the Iraq war came to an end, several paramilitary groups decided to group together with two objectives: to combat the US presence on their soil and to put an end to the threat of Daesh terrorism.
Under the name of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), these paramilitary militias were established in compliance with the fatwa of Iraq's Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, which stipulated the fulfilment of "a necessary jihad" to defend Iraqi cities from terrorist threats, especially in Baghdad.
However, this group managed to establish itself in the country by spreading significant arms smuggling and an ideology marked by Shiism. In this context, the group is also accused of increasing its power in Iraq, thus strengthening Iran's influence in the region.
Although the PMF has fought important battles against Daesh, organisations such as Amnesty International have accused the coalition of committing war crimes after kidnapping, torturing, and killing civilian Sunnis. Moreover, one of the groups that make up the group, the Kata'ib Hizballah militia, the "Iraqi Hezbollah", which currently has 30,000 members, is considered a terrorist organisation by the United States, the United Arab Emirates and Japan.
The Popular Mobilisation Forces are a conglomerate of militias with important differences between them. The most notable among them are the aforementioned Kata'ib Hizballah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq known as "the league of the Righteous", the al-Nujaba movement and the "Soraya al-Khorasani", organisations that are feared to be able to climb the ranks of Iraqi institutions and expand significant Iranian influence in a country where Shi'ism is fervently followed.
This branch of the PMF is one of the most important armed groups in Iraq and makes no secret of its close relationship with Iran, regularly receiving Iranian funding, weapons and support. Founded in 2003 after the fall of Saddam Hussein, the group's aim was to form itself to expand Shia influence.
After its formation, several battalions emerged, such as the "Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigade", "Karbala Brigades", "Sajjad Brigades", "Zayd bin Ali Brigades" and "Ali al-Akbar Brigades", armed factions that subscribe to Shi'ism. Under the name 'Iraqi Hezbollah', the group was formed in 2007 with the initial aim of fighting the US presence before attempting to 'work for the Islamic Republic in Iraq', a project that sought to simulate the Iranian form of government. Two years later, in 2009, the US added the formation to its list of terrorist groups.
Its former leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed in a US raid near Baghdad airport along with the commander of the Quds forces, Qasem Soleimani.
The group is also accused of being responsible for the attempted assassination of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, something they strongly deny.
Also known as the Khazali Network, the 'league of the righteous' is an Iraqi Shi'a political formation that took an active role in the Iraqi insurgency during the civil war, as well as in the Syrian civil war. The network has been funded and trained by Iran's Quds forces and has been credited with more than 6,000 attacks against US and Western forces. These attacks prompted the US to consider designating it as a terrorist organisation along with two of its most prominent leaders, Qais al-Khazali and Laith al-Khazali, who were eventually branded as global terrorists.
In 2017, the group made the leap directly into politics after forming a political party under the same name. Its political and ideological lines include the defence and glorification of the lesser jihad, anti-Zionism, and a strong anti-Americanism, as well as pan-Islamism, the political idea that advocates the union of all Muslims in the world under the same Caliphate.
The "Movement of the Nobles of God Party" currently has a strong presence in Syria. Like the other groups, this militia has close relations with Iran in terms of ideology, funding and training.
The HNN, known by its acronym, was the first militia to send fighters into Syria and had a strong presence in the 2015 South Aleppo offensive, as well as actively participating in the offensive in the Northern Aleppo countryside, where it managed to break the siege of the Shia-majority towns of Nubl and Zahraa.
"The Khorasan Companies" played a prominent role during the course of the Iraqi and Syrian civil war. Its aim is to establish a Shi'a Islamist government in Iraq based on "Velayat-e faqih", a Shari'a term that advocates a conservative jurisprudence, which gives primacy to religious figures over political power.
This formation played a prominent role in battles such as Aleppo, Amerli and Tikrit and fought against terrorist threats in the area. Even so, the NGO Humans Rights Watch accuses the 'company' of involvement in the destruction of several Sunni Arab villages and abuses against the civilian population.
Consequences of the US exit in Iraq
Under the pretext of alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction and close links to Al-Qaeda, which could not be confirmed, the Bush administration together with a Western coalition decided to attack Iraq in its fight against the "Axis of Evil", which brought down the Hussein regime and divided the international landscape of the 21st century.
US involvement was expected to last only a few months. However, its presence was maintained for seven more years, a period of time in which it attempted to reorganise the Iraqi army and police, as well as to protect the civilian population. Unlike the triumph of US troops in Iraq with Bush's now familiar "mission acomplished" phrase, this new mission was much more difficult to execute.
After years of US intervention, in 2011, then US President Barack Obama ordered the withdrawal of troops, something he had to reverse three years later to lead the anti-terrorist operation against Daesh.
The US presence has been viewed with suspicion by many Iraqis who, driven by revenge and radical currents, set up militias not only like those mentioned above but also new Islamic terrorist groups like Daesh that seek to establish their truth through terror, violence, and misery.
In order to fight terrorism, US troops have been kept at a much lower level in the country, something that also happened in Afghanistan. Their departure last August ushered the Taliban into power, plunging the population into a new dark era that it had sought to bring to an end after the fall of the first Taliban government and opening the debate about whether their departure was appropriate or not.
Last July, US President Joe Biden confirmed the final withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, while stressing that the country will continue to have a permanent presence to fight terrorism. All scenarios are possible. Analysts fear that the terrorist threat, as in Afghanistan, will become stronger. Add to this the presence of significant pro-Iranian militias and there are fears that Iran will be able to escalate its positions and further infiltrate Iraqi institutions, despite its loss of power in the last legislative elections in October.
Moreover, the strengthening of these troops could affect and influence the possible US agreement with Iran, a process that the US has already warned "will not be open forever".
After its electoral victory, the mandate of the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr will have to face one of the challenges that will have the greatest political and social consequences for the country in a scenario in which threats are more than constant. Meanwhile, the civilian population, tired of a political system that has shown itself incapable of improving their living conditions, is moving further away from political participation while dragging the burden of a country that in recent decades has only known a scenario of war.