Putin and Erdogan's marriage of convenience in jeopardy

The marriage of convenience between Putin and Erdogan is threatened by the current tensions in Syria. For almost five years, Russia and Turkey have put aside their bitter historical affronts in order to stabilise the military and humanitarian situation in the Arab country. But Ankara has tightened the noose so much in recent weeks with its military diatribes that the noose is about to snap.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have a lot in common. They are both hard-line supporters of their opponents and are criticised for their authoritarian tendencies. Putin wiped out the Caucasus Islamist guerrillas without caring about the human cost, and Erdogan wants to do the same with the Kurds. They are more feared than loved in their respective countries.

Surprisingly for many analysts, the two forged an unlikely union that has caused no small amount of headaches for the United States. Putin has been victorious in his attempt to prevent the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Erdogan has been able to free himself from the American yoke to present himself as a regional leader. The relationship came close to breaking down when Ankara shot down a Russian plane in late 2015. Putin even claimed then that it was "practically impossible" to reach an agreement with Erdogan, who refused for weeks to apologise for the incident.

Putin even accused Erdogan's family of enriching themselves from the illegal oil trade of the Islamic state, but the pragmatism of both leaders prevailed and, together with Iran, both signed several peace agreements in Astana and Sochi in the following years that made it possible to end the large-scale war in Syria.

So far the alliance has been mutually beneficial - Russia even supplies anti-aircraft batteries to NATO member Turkey - but the casualties suffered in recent weeks by the Turkish army in Syria make it increasingly difficult for Erdogan to justify his silence to the nationalists.

The trigger for the current tension has been the current offensive by the Syrian Army. With the approval of the Kremlin, Bachar al-Assad's regime ordered the operation in April 2019, but it was in the last few weeks that troops loyal to Damascus have made significant territorial gains.

The objective is not so much Idlib as the two roads - the M4 and the M5 - that link Damascus to Aleppo and the country's second city to the coast at Latakia - whose control is key to the country's reconstruction - and thus would also cut off the supply to the Islamists.

In Turkey, they believe that Syria would not have been able to move forward without Russian political and military support. They are not wrong. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly defended the offensive as a response to Islamists' attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure and bases in the country. As Syrian troops advanced, the danger to Turkish observation posts in Idlib increased. As a result, several Turkish soldiers have been killed in recent weeks.

The Turkish response was not long in coming. For every Turkish casualty (14), several dozen Syrian soldiers died under Turkish artillery fire. According to the Turkish Ministry of Defence, on Thursday, fifty Syrian soldiers were killed. "Turkey had to separate the moderate rebels from the radicals. It has not done so. It has not wanted to or has not been able to. But the fact is that it supports the Islamists of Idlib, whom Ankara considers moderate, but Moscow and Damascus see as terrorists," Boris Dolgov, a well-known Russian Arabist, told Efe.

The expert estimates that there are almost 30,000 Islamist militiamen present in Idlib who continually hammer the positions of the Syrian Army and the Russian bases. "All were under the umbrella of the Nusra Front. They have changed their name and are now called the Syrian Liberation Front. But they are the same," he says.

That is why it was Erdogan who broke the deck by accusing Moscow a couple of weeks ago of "closing its eyes" to the Syrian attacks on Turkish military positions in Idlib, where two other Turkish soldiers were reportedly killed on Thursday. He then went further by announcing an imminent military operation to prevent the regime and its allies, alluding to Russia, from taking Idlib. If Syrian troops do not withdraw to their pre-offensive positions before the end of the month, Erdogan threatens to launch a full-scale counter-offensive.

Lavrov accused Ankara of violating all the agreements reached by Putin and Erdogan. And the Kremlin has already warned that the Turkish operation in Idlib would be the "worst case scenario" possible for Syria. Meanwhile, Putin remains silent about it. Concentrating on constitutional reform, Putin has taken no position on either Erdogan's accusations or Turkey's military plans.

"It is too early for a meeting between Putin and Erdogan. The situation in Syria has been aggravated by Turkey's attitude. For now, they will limit themselves to telephone conversations," Dolgov commented. In this regard, the Kremlin has reported on a possible summit in March between the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran, the guarantors of the ceasefire in Syria.

"Erdogan will not decide to launch a military operation against the Syrian Army. It's too risky. It could lead to a full-scale conflict," said the expert. In his opinion, "if hostilities were to start, Turkish troops would have to face the Syrian army and the Kurdish militias, and Iran will not stand idly by either. "It could go wrong", warns Dolgov.

Bluffing or not, the fact is that the UN on Wednesday demanded that Turkey and Russia sign an agreement to lower the tension and, most importantly, prevent an even greater escalation of hostilities. Some experts believe that Erdogan does not want a conflict, but rather to negotiate a new agreement on Idlib, and that the diatribes of the last few weeks are aimed exclusively at domestic consumption. The aim of the new agreement would be to guarantee the security of its borders and prevent the flow of new Syrian migrants into Turkey, so a new large-scale war is in Ankara's best interest.

Threat of a clash

For weeks now, the Russian and Western press have been warning of a possible military confrontation between Moscow and Ankara. Russia has two bases in the Arab country - a naval base and an airfield - while the Turkish army has mobilized thousands of troops in Idlib and has an undetermined number of units deployed on the border. However, Russia has no ground troops on the ground outside the bases, only military advisors and specialists. Putin also reduced the number of war planes in his last withdrawal, although their role is crucial in the offensives ordered by Asad.

"There will be no military confrontation. Russian policy excludes such a possibility", insists Dolgov. He believes that the only measure Moscow could take in the coming weeks or months would be the provisional closure of Syrian airspace.

Libya and crime

The Russian-Turkish alliance is also threatened in Libya, as both countries support different sides. Moscow supports the strongman of the North African country, Khalifa Hafter, who visited Moscow this week after attacking the port of Tripoli in order to sink a Turkish ship with weapons for the Army.

Meanwhile, Ankara openly supports the National Accord Government (NAG) and even signed a military agreement with its leader, Fayez Al Serraj. "It's all part of Erdogan's neo-Islamism. The Turkish authorities are moderate Islamists and support the Muslim brothers. That's why they are ideologically close to the Islamists in Idlib and that's why they also support Tripoli," Dolgov explains. The expert believes that Erdogan wants to spread this ideology throughout the former Ottoman Empire, from the Middle East to the Caucasus and Central Asia. "That's why he doesn't recognize the Russian annexation of the Crimea either," he says.

But what all the experts agree on is that both countries have forged close economic and commercial cooperation in recent years, which has allowed Russia to alleviate part of the cost of Western sanctions, Turkey to extend its tentacles throughout the post-Soviet space and which would be ruined in the event of a break-up in Syria.