Putin announces troop surge to reinvigorate his advance

Today marks the eighth anniversary of Putin's official declaration of Crimea's independence in 2014, and as of today, Russia's offensive on the Ukrainian territory still has no consistent agreement on the horizon. Despite attempts at negotiation and apparent progress on the 15-point peace pact that would bring a ceasefire - as reported yesterday by the Financial Times - Moscow's troops continue to attack Ukrainian civilians. 

In addition to the attack on a theatre in the city of Mariúpol - where there was an air-raid shelter with more than 1,000 people, and where survivors are still being sought among the rubble -, in the last few hours, new bombardments have been added to residential buildings, such as in Merefa, in the east of the country, or in the districts of Obolonski, Podilski, Shevchenkivski and Darnytski in the capital of Kiev. In addition, the authorities in the town of Chernobyl, which yesterday witnessed indiscriminate firing on the bread lines, have reported that the clashes of the last 24 hours have killed 53 people. 

And while the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has announced its withdrawal from Mariupol due to its operational incapacity, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced the mobilisation of new troops. These reinforcements would give a new impetus to the Russian advance, which has become more sluggish as the days have gone by. In this respect, the US authorities explained that, of the estimated 150,000 military personnel mobilised by Moscow, around 7,000 have been killed, and between 14,000 and 21,000 could be wounded. 

Ramzan Kadyrov, President of the Russian Republic of Chechnya, has already assured that around 1,000 Chechen volunteers have already left for Ukrainian territory.

For his part, the Ukrainian president, Volodymir Zelenski, has warned that his country needs more weapons to continue to contain the Russian advance, and has called for more international support, sanctions and new arms shipments. In addition, as he did yesterday in front of the US Congress, Zelenski spoke today before the German Bundestag to warn that "Moscow is building a new wall", referring to the Iron Curtain that divided the world during the 20th century, and which took shape with the erection of the Berlin Wall.

"I call on you to recognise that Putin is a war criminal, just as the United States has done," Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said of Biden's remarks yesterday. The US president relied on investigations into Putin's war crimes to accuse him, for the first time, of being a "war criminal" who has carried out "barbaric military tactics". A statement that the UK foreign secretary has only backed up: "there is very, very strong evidence that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine and that Vladimir Putin is behind them". 

Moscow has been quick to react to these statements, with the Kremlin's official spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stressing that "Mr Biden's statements are absolutely inadmissible, unacceptable and unforgivable". 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has continued to reinforce his support for Russia, warning Zelenski that if he does not sign an agreement with his Russian counterpart, it will be only a short time before he signs a surrender. "Russia will not lose in this war [...]. It has proposed to Ukraine a fully acceptable variant of an agreement. If Zelensky does not accept it, believe me, in a short time, he will have to sign an act of capitulation," Lukashenko added. 

Indeed, the confrontation between Russia - and its allies - and much of the West has spilled over to the UN Security Council. At a meeting convened today by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Mexico, Norway and Albania - six of the 15 member states - representatives of member states discussed a draft for sending humanitarian aid and protection to civilians in Ukraine. This follows yesterday's order by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) urging Russia to establish a ceasefire. 

"The Russian Federation must immediately suspend the military operations it launched on 24 February 2022 on Ukrainian territory," said ICJ judge and president Joan Donoghue. "The Court is deeply concerned about Russia's use of force, which raises serious issues of international law." 

Meanwhile, Moscow continues to work on holding a parallel meeting of the Security Council, which it justifies with the "anti-Russian line" adopted by "Western colleagues". 

Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Ping, in parallel, will hold talks on Friday as part of their "efforts to maintain lines of communication", in a scenario in which China continues to fail to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Washington leads Western retaliation against the Kremlin. 

Beijing's position, like Ankara's, is one of mediation. Both powers have tried to set themselves up as guarantors of negotiations between Kiev and Moscow within the international community. In this sense, the Ottoman president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has proposed holding a meeting between Putin and Zelenski on Turkish territory, which, according to a statement from the presidency, has already been conveyed to the Kremlin. 

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has so far resulted in more than 3.1 million refugees. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), these figures have been growing steadily in recent weeks, and have led to the displacement of more than 1.9 million people across the Ukrainian border.