Putin promotes a coup in Ukraine

All eyes are still on Ukraine at this hour, where the full-scale invasion launched early Thursday morning by Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a decisive stage. In the coming days or hours, the country's capital, Kiev, could fall into the hands of Russia, whose military campaign has killed at least 137 Ukrainians and threatens to overthrow the elected government of Volodymir Zelensky and install in its place a puppet regime to fulfil Putin's imperialist ambitions, outlined in his address to the nation on Monday.

Putin has signalled his willingness to sit down and negotiate with Zelensky hours after the Ukrainian president opened up to discussing a "neutral status" for his country in relation to possible NATO membership, one of Russia's main demands in recent weeks. This was announced by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who assured that the Russian president is considering sending a diplomatic delegation to Belarus to open a negotiating table with his Ukrainian counterparts. A sort of Minsk III that would guarantee compliance with the agreement this time.

But the conditions of the incipient war prevent a return to the realm of diplomacy for the moment. The Russian army is giving no respite and continues its military offensive on Ukraine, attacking from several flanks. From the south through the Crimean peninsula, annexed to Russia in 2014, from the northwest and east through the areas in the hands of the pro-Russian separatists of Lugansk and Donetsk, and from the north across the border with Belarus, taking Chernobyl. An area from which it has broken into Kiev.

The Russian army's air strikes on Ukrainian military installations and infrastructure, aimed at disabling its resources, gave way to ground incursions into the country, which have produced harrowing images. An advanced stage of fighting whose nerve centre has been established in the capital, a crucial enclave for the control of the country. Kiev is the scene of a siege. The sounds of sirens and bombs break the sepulchral silence that fills the empty streets through which Russian soldiers are trying to advance in combat with Ukrainian forces.

The former boxer and current mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klichko, acknowledged the delicate situation in the capital. The world boxing champion called on his neighbours to defend it: "Everyone who can should unite and help our soldiers. One of those citizens who have closed ranks is former president Petro Poroshenko. The leader who emerged from the Maidan revolution in 2014 and who would end up being defeated in the 2019 elections by Zelensky, appeared on CNN's broadcast carrying a Kalashnikov and charging harshly against Vladimir Putin.

So far, the scenario envisaged by US intelligence is playing out despite the fact that the Russian military appears to have lost strength in recent hours, according to senior Defence Department officials. The forces sent by Moscow are not advancing as fast as expected, but the same sources warn that the fall of Kiev could be a matter of hours if no alternative solution is reached. Moreover, the existence of spies and saboteurs in the Ukrainian ranks would have facilitated the Russian campaign.

In the rest of the country, the situation is not much better. A desolate context that has led some 70,000 people to leave Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion. All departures have been by land due to the closure of airspace by the Kiev government. Moldova and Poland have become the main receiving states with 20,000 and 30,000 Ukrainian citizens, respectively. A volume that will increase exponentially in the coming days and which has set off alarm bells in Europe about a new refugee crisis.

Moscow maintains that its violent intervention is aimed at the "denazification and demilitarisation" of Ukraine. A false pretext on which they base their actions. The Kremlin's framing of the former Soviet republic as a serious threat to its national security ceased to hold as soon as Putin repeatedly denied Ukraine's sovereignty and rejected its legitimacy as a state. This imperialist rhetoric has been quasi-unanimously rejected by the international community.

Moscow considers NATO a threat. This was reiterated on Friday by the country's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who threatened Sweden and Finland with serious "military and political" reprisals should they join the Atlantic Alliance. In response, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has announced a new deployment of troops to deal with "any contingency". But he continues to rule out intervention in Ukraine.

"Take power into your own hands. This is Putin's message to the Ukrainian army to take up arms against its own government. As Stoltenberg himself pointed out in his appearance, the Russian president is trying to promote a coup d'état among the military high command that would replace the executive led for the last four years by the former actor and comedian Volodymir Zelenski. A leader who came to power promising peace in the Donbass and who has only hardened his stance towards Moscow.

Putin has described his Ukrainian counterpart and the rest of his cabinet as "a bunch of drug addicts and neo-Nazis". The Jewish-born Zelenski has made several public appearances in recent hours and has made it clear that he is still in Kiev in a video in which he is accompanied by his prime minister and his team of advisors. Meanwhile, the Russian president maintains that he has "entrenched himself in Kiev by holding the people hostage" and has encouraged military cadres to take control in order to negotiate with Moscow.

Since the outbreak of the war in the Donbass against pro-Russian separatists in 2014, Ukraine has carried out a series of structural reforms within its armed forces. Successive governments in Kiev have invested in upgrading the army to bring it in line with NATO requirements. An objective that has not been achieved due to the internal weaknesses inherent in the rest of Ukraine's institutions, which are fragmented by political struggles and marked by corruption, lack of transparency and abusive actions, as well as mistrust among cadres. These are weaknesses that Putin is trying to exploit.

The cascade of reactions at the international level has not ceased. The EU is preparing to tighten the sanctions regime against Russia by freezing the assets of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, who has been in office since 2004. However, no travel ban will be imposed on them. At the same time, the French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, has reopened the debate on Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT transfer connection system. A route approved by Spain but viewed with some scepticism from Germany.

Earlier this afternoon, Putin held a telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss the situation in Ukraine. Surprising observers and analysts alike, Beijing has taken a more reserved stance on the Russian campaign and advocated a return to negotiations. A recommendation that Xi Jinping himself conveyed to Putin. Putin left the stone on the roof of Ukraine, the former Soviet republic he is now blackmailing.