Putin says he "does not want war in Europe" after meeting Scholz

Just when tensions seemed to have reached a climax and the threat of invasion of Ukraine was thought imminent, according to British and US intelligence, the crisis in Eastern Europe has reached a stalemate with the partial withdrawal of Russian troops deployed on the border and the visit to Moscow by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. A new opportunity for dialogue with Russia in a context conducive to de-escalation.

After travelling to Kiev to take the pulse of the Ukrainian leader, Volodymir Zelenski, and a week after doing the same with Joe Biden in Washington, Scholz landed in Moscow on Tuesday for face-to-face talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And they did so six metres apart, on the same stage as French President Emmanuel Macron. Like Macron, Scholz has refused to undergo a PCR test, citing the same reasons as the Elysée.

But unlike Macron, his three-hour conversation with Putin does not seem to have left a bad taste in the Kremlin's mouth. "We are ready to continue working together. We are ready to follow the path of negotiations," Putin assured a joint press conference at the end of the meeting. Although the Russian leader has also expressed his dissatisfaction with the promise not to accept Ukraine into NATO that has been mooted in recent hours, Ukraine could join the organisation "in a few years".

Putin intends to nip the Ukraine issue in the bud and block Ukraine's possible membership of the Atlantic Alliance. This would involve redesigning Europe's security architecture and setting NATO a red line whose leaders seem unwilling to accept so far. But subjecting Ukraine's sovereignty to the dictates of continental stability, a kind of 'Finlandisation' mentioned by Macron, is gaining weight as a possible solution to the conflict.

A simultaneous way to mitigate the crisis is to effectively implement the Minsk agreements, a series of pacts between Russia and Ukraine brokered by Paris and Berlin in the so-called Normandy Quartet that managed to broker an unsuccessful ceasefire in the Donbass war in 2015 and whose resolutions were never implemented.

During the meeting, Putin reportedly informed Scholz of a window of opportunity to reach such an agreement with the US and NATO. According to the German chancellor, there could be a meeting point between Russia and the West that would involve reshaping the continental security system. And Scholz himself agreed "to work on a peaceful solution to the conflict" in what was his first visit to the Kremlin since taking over from Angela Merkel in December.

The summit between Putin and Scholz came hours after the Russian army began to withdraw some of the units deployed on the border with Ukraine since last November. Although the exact number of troops withdrawn has not yet been revealed and the operation has kept heavy weapons in the area, Scholz described the act as a "good sign". This consideration has also been expressed by NATO's Secretary General, who remains somewhat sceptical.

The Ukrainian government also maintains its distrust of Russia and has increased military protection in certain enclaves of the country after the growing insecurity promoted by Washington and London. Zelenski is wary of a Russia that already annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and militarily backed separatists in the Donbass. Two regions that the Duma wants to recognise as independent.

On Tuesday, the lower house of the Russian parliament asked Putin to recognise the sovereignty of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics in a motion tabled by the main opposition force, the Communist Party, and backed by five other parties. A move that would scupper the Minsk agreements and on which Putin has yet to comment. During the press conference, the Russian president denounced the "genocide" that Kiev is committing in the region, statements that met with the disapproval of the German chancellor.

Energy and trade ties between Germany and Russia brought the two leaders closer together. After Biden's statement at the White House that in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine "there would be no more Nord Stream 2", Scholz's aseptic face and silence in response to the US president's words reflected the cracks in the bloc's façade of unity.

Putin called for the new pipeline to work, saying it is "one of the largest infrastructure projects in Europe, aimed at significantly strengthening the continent's energy security", and that it has "no political overtones". The energy sector unites Russian-German agendas. Russia is one of Germany's main trading partners, and any retaliation on its economy will also resonate in Berlin.

No one better symbolises the energy and trade links connecting Berlin and Moscow than Gerhard Schröder. The former German chancellor, who governed from 1998 to 2005, was appointed to Gazprom's board after leaving politics and has defended Putin since the beginning of the crisis, going so far as to overrule his successor and fellow Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, with whom he rivalled in the SPD.