Putin's policies of aggression wake NATO up
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought to the table the importance of military alliances and the consequences that these actors can have in shaping a new geopolitical order. Russian President Vladimir Putin has achieved what few expected: the thawing of NATO and its reaction beyond international condemnation.
Increased defence spending in countries such as Germany, troop deployments to bordering countries and economic sanctions have been the main measures taken by NATO that have taken the organisation a step further in NATO's history and shaken it out of its lethargy.
The Russian attacks have reopened a dormant debate. Increased arms spending, the need for a European army, the international relevance of the European Union and nuclear security are the issues that now dominate public debate, and few expected Russia to attack not the separatist regions of Donbas, but the Ukrainian capital.
This is why there are many who advocate sending troops directly to Ukraine, which would be a direct attack against Russia, while others believe that this situation highlights the need to invest in international security by increasing the defence budget. Measures that, were it not for the current situation in Europe, would have been kept on the back burner
"What happens in the future only Putin knows," said a Spanish military officer. While the West tries to measure its reactions and acts cautiously in the face of any step that Moscow might interpret as an attack, Russia does not cease its offensives against Ukraine and is launching increasingly cruel aggressions that have already left 636 civilians dead, including 85 children, and 1,067 wounded, according to the UN.
What is known about the near future is that all scenarios are possible, including nuclear attack. Unlike those who believe that Russia will not go beyond Ukraine's borders, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg points out that Moscow's objectives "are not limited to Ukraine". For this reason, the Alliance decided to deploy troops "by land, sea and air" to the countries of the East in order to send a clear message to Moscow: NATO is committed to collective defence.
This differs from eight years ago, when NATO avoided involvement in Ukraine after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and supported pro-Russian separatists in Donbas and Luhansk. The Alliance merely reprimanded Moscow, which is very different from the current situation. Stoltenberg stresses his condemnation of Russia, which he describes as "aggression against a sovereign European state" for which he has pledged a united response.
"President Putin's war against Ukraine has shattered peace in Europe," he said on a visit to a military base in Latvia. Russian attacks "have shaken the international order and continue to take a devastating toll on the Ukrainian people", he said.
This potential new international order has prompted NATO to take a stand and reform the values that bind Alliance countries together. It has already been put to the test after the withdrawal of Western troops in Afghanistan, where US failure in the country became evident. Now, Ukraine has become a new arena in which the Alliance has the opportunity to adopt more forceful policies in defence of Western values.
Russia, on the other hand, has seen NATO's eastward expansion and expansion of its bases as a threat that endangers Russian security and its sphere of influence. In the face of NATO's caution against armed conflict, remembering that it is a defensive political and military Alliance, Moscow has seen NATO's expansion as a clear threat to its regional and international dominance. However, in response to Putin's threats, US President Joe Biden noted that Putin had "failed in his goal of dividing the West".
Some analysts point out that if NATO does not give a serious response to Putin, "the future of the Alliance will be in serious doubt". However, NATO has responded with measures not seen since the 1999 Kosovo intervention, with the largest mobilisation of Western troops since the incursion.
In this context, countries such as Finland and Sweden are reconsidering their neutrality. Thus, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has reopened an exhaustive debate on whether Finland's possible NATO membership would be beneficial for the country, something that the Finns increasingly support.
Likewise, on the future of the Alliance, before the Russian invasion in 2016, French President Emmanuel Macron called NATO 'brain dead' and argued for the need to increase the EU's capabilities, something France has already taken the lead on.
NATO thus seems to have reacted to a situation that few expected and which still seems far from over. Depending on how events unfold, the Alliance will continue to debate what measures can best be adjusted as it seeks to demonstrate internationally that NATO is not yet dead.
All NATO members are committed to trying to increase their defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP. In 2021, Spain's defence budget was 1.02%, surpassing only Luxembourg with 0.57%. Faced with this situation, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has declared his intentions to increase the defence budget in the coming years.
"We must do it," he declared. His proposal, he explained, will be part of a series of pacts that will be carried out with the rest of the parliamentary groups with a view to next year's budgets, in which he will try to approve a "progressive increase" in spending until the 2% of GDP is "met". However, many economists are sceptical and realistic about this measure and declare that it is "almost impossible to achieve this budget in the short term".
In the same year Greece contributed 3.82%, in terms of proportional spending, thus surpassing the US with 3.52% of its GDP. These commitments have also been met by Croatia (2.79%), Estonia (2.28%), Latvia (2.27%), Poland (2.1%), Lithuania (2.03%), Romania (2.02%) and France (2.01%). Germany has now joined these figures, after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced after the Russian invasion that defence spending would be increased to 2% by 2022, which translates into 50 billion euros.