Rabat signs fisheries agreement with Moscow and Algiers grits its teeth
- Why this sudden Russian turn against Algeria?
- A mediation proposal that risks shattering Algerian-Russian relations
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's visit in June seems to have dealt a fatal blow to Algerian-Russian relations, rather than strengthening them. Despite the exaggerated complacency shown to him by the Algerian head of state, Vladimir Putin has understood the ambivalence of the Algerian position, which is no longer based on immutable principles, as it was before the Tebboune-Chengriha duo took the reins in Algeria. Deception has taken over a diplomacy that has long been faltering.
During this visit, the Algerian president demonstrated his ignorance of basic diplomatic norms. By loudly expressing his desire to leave the eurozone and the dollar zone, and by patting the Russian president on the back, going so far as to say that he was ‘the friend of all humanity’ and that everyone loved him, the Algerian president made the host country's head of state uncomfortable and suspicious of his hypocrisy. That was it for Algeria and Russia. Putin is tough. He does not like hypocrisy. He knows that Algerians are men of their word and men of principle. Like many people, he has discovered a man who has nothing in common with the Algerian he knows. The head of the Kremlin was quick to turn his back on Algeria in order to stick his hand in Morocco's. Why this brutal Russian turn against Algeria?
Why this sudden Russian turn against Algeria?
At a time when the cold war between Russia and the West (the United States and Europe) has become increasingly intense since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, Algiers has not known how to position itself.
Its diplomacy, obsessed with its Moroccan neighbour and throwing all its remaining weight behind the Polisario Front separatist movement, has lost all direction on major international issues. Sometimes it is in the arms of the Americans, sometimes in the arms of the Russians. But it is above all with the Americans that Algiers is soft-eyed and soft-eyed. The number of visits to Algiers by US political and military officials has multiplied in recent times. Algiers has obeyed Washington's warnings without the slightest resistance, even to the point of offending Moscow.
Its position on Ukraine eventually swung in favour of Kiev. Washington did, however, recognise the Moroccan Sahara. This recognition had an effect on Spain and France, which followed suit.
Pissed off with Madrid and Paris for their support for the Sahara autonomy plan, Algiers acts as if nothing has happened with the US. A policy of double standards. Algerian diplomacy is no longer principled, as the international community has noted.
Another reason for the coldness between Russians and Algerians is the latter's ‘betrayal’ in the conflict between Moscow and Kiev.
At the end of July, the Malian army, supported by Russian mercenaries from Africa Corps (formerly Wagner), suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of Tuareg rebels. Ukrainian intelligence claimed that this victory was possible thanks to their support. The Russians suspected that Algiers had facilitated Ukrainian intervention in the region. This had serious repercussions for Russian positions in North Africa. One does not have to be a genius to guess that the Cherifian kingdom benefited. The rapprochement between Rabat and Moscow was beginning to make Algiers fear the worst. And the worst has happened, much to the chagrin of Algerian diplomacy, which no longer knows where it stands.
Morocco has just announced that it has signed a ‘promising’ fisheries agreement with Russia. This announcement comes after the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) annulled the fisheries and trade agreements between the EU and the Kingdom. According to Europa Press, this agreement with Russia ‘covers the southern provinces’, reaffirming the Moroccan nationality of the Sahara. We can only conclude, without hesitation, that Moscow practically recognises the Moroccan nature of the Sahara. All that is missing is an official announcement.
A mediation proposal that risks shattering Algerian-Russian relations
The official announcement of Moscow's recognition of the Moroccan nature of the Sahara will not be long in coming. It will no doubt follow the Algerian rejection of Russian mediation between Algeria and Morocco, recently proposed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to his Algerian and Moroccan counterparts.
Having rejected all mediation proposals to the point of suffering a crushing setback at the 2022 Arab League summit in Algiers, boycotted by all Gulf states, it is hard to imagine the Algerian regime accepting peace mediation from any side. The conflict between the generals in Algiers and Morocco is vital to them. Anything but peace with their Moroccan neighbour. And much worse if Moscow were to break off its historical and strategic relations with Algeria. Putin's first reaction to Tebboune's refusal to mediate will inevitably be official recognition of the Moroccan Sahara.
It is in Putin's interest not to let the Americans go it alone in a kingdom where the prospects of a major economic boom are widely perceptible. Not to mention the strategic position of a country with two maritime frontiers. One on the Mediterranean and the other on the Atlantic. A strategic and economic position that Morocco's leaders manage with great tact and serenity.