Reengineering chaos: Al Qaeda is poised to expand in southern Yemen
What Hadramaut and Al Mahra in particular are experiencing—with videos circulating of Al Qaeda elements looting weapons and public celebrations of the departure of Emirati and southern forces from the area—is indicative of a decisive regional and international moment, linked to vital oil supply lines and global trade.
Observers and media in the south warn of increasing signs of security chaos in Al Mukalla and various areas of the Hadramaut coast, following the redeployment of southern forces and their withdrawal from several locations, coinciding with the entry of Saudi-backed forces and armed groups, including tribal elements and military components from the north.
The security vacuum left by the withdrawal of southern forces and Emirati counterterrorism units prompted armed men from northern governorates, including Marib, to engage in looting. Videos posted on social media show weapons, ammunition, and military equipment being transported from inside the camps using civilian vehicles.
The recent security breakdown in Hadramaut has reignited old fears about the return of chaos to Al Mukalla, a city that enjoyed years of stability after the expulsion of Al Qaeda in 2016 by the Hadrami Elite Forces with Emirati support—later integrated into the forces of the Southern Transitional Council— before recent events, linked to the redeployment of forces and the shift in the balance on the ground, shook that stability.
Setback in the fight against terrorism
The South 24 center notes in a report that “the leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Saad al-Din al-Awlaki, expressed the organization's satisfaction with the withdrawal of Emirati special forces fighting terrorism from Yemen, as well as the withdrawal of Southern Transitional Council forces from the Hadramaut governorate.”
Saudi-backed northern forces entered several areas of Hadramaut. A southern source said that “the Council relocated its forces in Hadramaut to prevent further bloodshed due to unjustified Saudi airstrikes,” according to the center.
The Southern Transitional Council had taken control of Hadramaut and Al Mahra on December 2, as part of a military operation aimed at securing the governorate from terrorist groups, cutting off smuggling networks linked to Houthi militias, and preventing the trafficking of oil and wealth.
In addition, South 24 reported that “accounts affiliated with Al Qaeda released videos that they said documented the control of those they described as ‘the sons of Al Rayan’ over weapons depots in one of the facilities inside Al Rayan airport, which were previously used by southern forces,” This came after Al Qaeda threatened in early December to confront southern forces that entered Hadramaut.
A few days ago, the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense announced the completion of the total withdrawal of its soldiers from Yemen, including counterterrorism forces. Observers told South 24 that this step “will negatively affect international counterterrorism efforts led by the Emirates alongside southern forces in Yemen, which had recently achieved significant successes in Abyan, Shabwa, and Hadramaut.” The Emirati move came after a Saudi bombing of the civilian port of Al Mukalla.
At the heart of danger
A report by the southern channel Aden Independent warns that “Hadramaut has become the heart of danger, as a plan is being drawn up to dismantle the counterterrorism system and recycle chaos in the governorate located in eastern Yemen.”
The report adds that “Hadramaut is no longer on the brink of danger, but is now at its very heart; shocking stages of security manipulation are being revealed and chaos is being reengineered with lethal calm. What is happening today is a gradual process to dismantle the security and counterterrorism system that protected the territory for years.”
It also points out that "the return of terrorist organizations, led by Al Qaeda, is not a temporary coincidence, but the result of a reality that was deliberately created, the first phase of which began with the coup and the expulsion of the southern forces dedicated to counterterrorism, and the introduction of the so-called Yemeni emergency militias loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood—classified as a terrorist organization—along with the Homeland Shield Brigades and the National Army from the Marib region, Al Qaeda's main stronghold in the Arabian Peninsula."
Yemeni journalist Ali Nasser al-Awlaki states in a post on the X platform that “the Hadramaut region is currently experiencing the most dangerous phases of security chaos. Looting is no longer limited to camps, but has spread to private property and businesses in broad daylight, amid a total absence of security.”
He adds that "elements of the Muslim Brotherhood and hordes arriving from the north are carrying out systematic looting, and Hadrami citizens are living in a state of terror, without protection or security. The undeniable truth is that, before the Saudi bombing, Hadramaut did not witness this chaos, nor was there a significant presence of the Brotherhood's influence; the chaos began after the bombing, and the victim is the citizen."
The forces of the Southern Transitional Council had managed to unify the security forces deployed in southern Yemen after gaining “control of the oil- and resource-rich Hadramaut region in the east of the country, before expanding their deployment eastward to include the governorate of Al Mahra,” according to the Chinese news agency Xinhua. However, all this was completely reversed with their redeployment following the Saudi bombing.
Southern Yemen occupies a strategic position controlling one of the world's most sensitive shipping chokepoints.Bab el-Mandeb is not just a maritime passage, but an artery connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, through which a large part of the world's energy and goods trade passes. Any disruption in this area is immediately reflected in energy prices, supply chains, and the safety of international shipping.