Russia and Iran seek to maintain their presence in the region in the face of a possible peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan

A possible peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which would put an end to one of the longest-running conflicts in the former Soviet Union, has been on the table for several months. 

Last April, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was "closer than ever", stressing that there was "political will" on both sides to bring it to fruition. 

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to return four border villages that were part of Azerbaijan when the two countries were republics of the Soviet Union despite domestic protests in Armenia demanding Pashinyan's resignation.  

However, despite progress there are still a number of obstacles to a peace agreement. The two nations need to realign their common border and finalise the details related to a possible peace after more than 30 years of dispute.  

The war between the two countries broke out in the Nagorno-Karabakh region (called Artsakh by Armenians) in the late 1980s. This is the longest-running dispute in the post-Soviet space, considered one of the so-called "frozen conflicts" on Russia's periphery.   

Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, was controlled by Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan until September 2023, when Baku launched a military offensive in order to recapture this region and its surroundings. The Azeri victory forced thousands of Armenians to flee the area but did not put an end to the conflict, as territorial claims still exist and threaten further escalation. 

This is why both sides are trying to reach an agreement, as are several countries that have acted as mediators for years, such as the United States, France, Russia and Iran.  

Moscow, due to its historical past, has always been heavily involved in this conflict. However, in recent months its influence has been waning. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to withdraw Russian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh, where they have been stationed to secure peace since the end of the war in 2020. The Armenian authorities also decided to suspend their participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a Russian-led military alliance.   

As relations between Yerevan and Moscow deteriorate significantly, Armenia is moving closer to the EU. Brussels has even given the green light to a possible accession process for the Caucasus country. A European Parliament resolution related to EU-Armenia ties states that if the Republic of Armenia wishes to apply to become a candidate for EU membership, "the institutions of the European Union should support this step". 

These developments pose a potential shift in the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus and Central Asia in favour of the West, which regional powers will seek to avoid.  

To address this situation and the consequences, OQB.COMMUNICATIONS has organised a briefing on the issue with a number of experts from different countries.  

As Ukrainian geopolitical analyst Volodymyr Kopchak points out, the regional power centres - Moscow, Tehran and Ankara - are not interested in the presence or strengthening of the influence of non-regional power centres in the region. On this point, he stresses that it is important for Moscow to delay or mediate the peace process between Baku and Yerevan in order to prevent the signing of a peace treaty involving Washington and Brussels.  

Furthermore, despite the rapprochement between Armenia and the West, Kopchak recalls that, due to Armenia's current total dependence - especially economically - on Russia, "it is necessary for Yerevan to manoeuvre between different centres of power in order to guarantee the preservation and survival of the ruling regime".  

Zeev Khanin, head of the Begin-Sadat Centre's Post-Soviet Conflict Research Programme (PSCRP), agrees, noting that Yerevan's desire to reorient foreign policy "towards the West" at the expense of Russia "seems at least inconsistent so far".  

"In practice, Yerevan maintains its military, diplomatic and, above all, economic partnership with Moscow", he adds. 

For its part, the Islamic Republic of Iran, another key player in the region, has tried to fill the vacuum in Armenia due to Russia's weakening after the beginning of the invasion in Ukraine. This vacuum is being filled by Iran, "a country with which Armenia maintains close and increasingly close ally relations", Khanin stresses. 

In this sense, Gela Vasadze, Georgian political scientist and regional director of the Georgian Strategic Analysis Centre (GSAC) notes that, at present, "Iran's main priority is still to strengthen its position in Armenia and to seek stable relations with Azerbaijan". Vasadze also notes that both Russia and Iran 'will remain an existential threat to Azerbaijan and Armenia'. 

Regarding Armenia's possible accession to the EU and its rapprochement with Brussels and Washington, Khanin believes that "the West is not sure that Yerevan's intentions are serious enough". "The trend of rapprochement with Yerevan seems more a factor of diplomatic pressure on its geopolitical opponents than a real will to launch Armenia's NATO and EU accession process," he explains.