Russia to sell second supply of S-400 Triumf missile system to Turkey

Moscow and Ankara are strengthening their cooperation on military matters with a new agreement to supply the S-400 Triumf missile system. The general director of the Russian consortium Rosoboronexport, responsible for the project, has assured that the contract to provide a second supply of this system to Turkey is already signed and the only thing missing is to specify how the payments will be made, as he explained to the media on Sunday. "The contract has been signed" and the parties are now in the phase of discussing "the financial model for the implementation" of the contract, stressed Alexander Mijeyev in the framework of the international military exhibition Army 2020, according to the website of the television channel RT. 

The President of the Turkish Defence Industry, Ismail Demir, already announced in June that his country had a first agreement for the supply of the second Russian-made S-400 air defence system, while preparations continue to put the first purchased system into operation, which, he said, was bought "for use". In statements to Turkish channel NTV, Demir said the second contract would include "certain production and technology elements," and explained that technical studies, joint production details and a roadmap are required for delivery. 

The S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft missile system is designed to provide highly effective protection against air attacks by strategic, cruise, tactical and other ballistic missiles. It is capable of hitting airborne targets, including aircraft and cruise missiles, from a distance of 400 kilometres. Both Russia and Turkey are regional powers led by authoritarian leaders and their geopolitical interests on the international chessboard clash in some conflicts, such as in the case of Syria. Despite this, economic relations between Turkey and Russia have grown almost in tandem with their regional rivalry. The most important aspect of relations was the sale of the Russian-made S-400 air defence system, which gives Turkey a powerful arsenal independent of NATO. There are also lucrative Russian contracts available for Turkey's construction sector.

The two countries have military potential, but cannot afford to confront each other. Perhaps the best example of how neither side can afford open conflict was the downing of a Russian Su-24 warplane in November 2015. The circumstances of that incident remain controversial, but soon after the plane was shot down, Moscow cut off all communications with Turkey and imposed extensive economic sanctions on Ankara, including the suspension of all charter flights to Turkey, essentially ending Turkey's lucrative tourist trade with Russia. In June 2016, Erdogan wrote to Putin expressing his condolences, a communication that was interpreted by the Russian media as an apology and which led to the rebuilding of relations. 

Although circumstances have changed dramatically over the past five years, the balance of trade remains unchanged. While it is true that the balance is largely in Russia's favour, it is also true that Moscow cannot afford to confront Turkey directly in relation to Syria. However, as long as its alliance with Syrian President Bachar Al-Assad remains intact, any agreement between Erdogan and Putin is likely to mark a postponement of a further confrontation over Idlib, rather than a guarantee. "Idlib's main problem is President Bashar al-Assad's desire to establish full control of the area and block the border with Turkey, while he has also pushed three million Sunni people, who are unfriendly to al-Assad, onto Turkish soil," Vladimir Frolov, a Russian foreign affairs analyst, told the British daily The Guardian.