Russia supports Al-Asad's efforts in the far north of Syria

More wood for the fire in Syria. The military campaign launched by Bachar al-Asad in order to recover all the territory still in the hands of the rebels receives a new impetus. According to the London-based newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, a large column of Russian armoured vehicles arrived on Sunday in the cities of Manbij and Kobane, controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which share interests with Damascus.

The information provided by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, obtained from local sources that have not been identified, quantifies in “dozens” the number of vehicles that have moved into the area, between armoured cars and units for troop and material transport. According to those sources, the relocation has been taking place throughout the past week with the full knowledge of the FSD
leadership.

The new contingent sent by the Kremlin, the main ally of Al-Asad in a war that has lasted almost a decade, will provide very important logistical support for the combatants of the SDF, a group of mainly Kurdish militias that were key in eliminating Daesh's territorial base and that, at present, have Turkey and its related groups as their main enemy.

Manbij and Kobane were the scene of some of the toughest battles against the terrorist groups. These two locations, located very close to the Syrian-Turkish border, flank the Euphrates River. They are about 100 kilometres northeast of Aleppo. It is likely that the newly arrived vehicles will be used to move troops to the Idlib front, about 150 kilometres to the south-west, where the last rebel groups backed by Ankara are resisting the advance of the Syrian Arab Army. 

However, another possibility on the horizon is that the vehicles could be used to strengthen the muscle of the Damascus Armed Forces on the Turkish border, as a deterrent. Tension between Ankara and Damsco is high, despite the signing of a ceasefire for the Idlib area by Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in early March. In that agreement, however, nothing was signed between Turkey and Syria, which have not, in fact, given up their objectives. 

In any event, a strong military presence on their doorstep, such as that provided by the Russian armoured vehicles, could make it easier for Erdogan's government to think twice before launching further attacks on Al-Asad's military units. 

This is, in fact, the explanation provided to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed by SDF sources is the latter. However, it cannot be ruled out that some of these armoured vehicles or transport vehicles may be moved to other points in Syrian territory from time to time. Over the past few months, Russia has established numerous operational bases in the country to house troops and equipment and, above all, to support Al-Asad's offensive from the air. The most important are the airfields of Tabqa and Qamishli, somewhat north of Raqqa, the former capital of Daesh in Syria.

Indeed, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) has reported that, in the last few hours, several Russian fighter planes have flown over the de-escalation zone around Idlib and Aleppo. According to SOHR, these were reconnaissance flights. The Observatory also confirms that the regime's troops and rebel groups have exchanged air attacks in the last few hours in the village of Miznaz, east of Aleppo. A militiaman from the side of Al-Asad - perhaps affiliated to a group associated with Hezbollah - has been killed in the explosion of an ammunition depot.

The Kremlin movement comes within hours of a report by the Institute for War Studies (ISW), a think tank close to the U.S. Department of Defense. The document states that in the months of February and March alone, Erdogan's administration assigned some 29,000 soldiers to the Syrian front, including infantry, armed forces and special forces.

Ankara has also received a recent boost from Washington. This week, the permanent representative of the United States to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison, said that her country was prepared to help Turkey on the border with Syria, but only on condition that Erdogan agreed to get rid of the S-400 model air defense systems bought from Russia.

Judging by the events of the last few hours, tensions are again rising in Syria. While skirmishes and bombings between militias continue, the armies involved in the conflict continue to send more and more troops to the front lines, which may jeopardise the ceasefire between Turkey and Russia in the coming weeks.