Russia-West round of talks to address Ukraine crisis

Hours after the United States warned of an "imminent invasion" by Russia over Ukraine, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden held a telephone conversation at Biden's request. French leader Emmanuel Macron also spoke with Putin a few days after meeting with the Russian leader in Moscow. At the same time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

All these consultations demonstrate that, despite the escalation of tension, diplomacy and dialogue still represent real options to avoid conflict and achieve a political solution. However, far from a cordial conversation, the calls continue to be full of reproaches and threats. Biden, for example, has once again warned Putin of "severe costs" if Putin decides to invade Ukraine. Such an event, according to the US president, 'would produce widespread human suffering and damage Russia's position'. He also stressed that the US and NATO are ready for any scenario.

Putin, for his part, accused Washington of providing the media with false information about the alleged invasion of Ukraine. The Russian leader has again insisted on Russia's security demands, assuring that his country will guarantee its security in the same way as the United States would. In this regard, Putin announced to his counterpart that he would soon present Moscow's response to NATO and Washington's letters. The Kremlin described the conversation as "quite balanced and serious". 

"The escalation on the issue of the 'invasion' was carried out in a coordinated manner. The hysteria has simply reached its climax, to the point of absurdity," presidential adviser for international affairs Yuri Ushakov said after the call between Putin and Biden. Ushakov claimed that the US is "inflating hysteria" about the alleged Russian invasion. "They even gave dates of this invasion. And in parallel they inflate (with weapons) the Ukrainian army, provide significant financial resources for the modernisation of the army and send more and more trainers to the country," he added.

Washington has asserted that Russia could strike on 16 February, although it has previously indicated other dates. National security adviser Jake Sullivan warned that the invasion could even come "during the Olympic Games". The US has also delivered more than 200 tons of weapons to the Ukrainian army. These arms deliveries, coupled with repeated warnings of aggression, "create the prerequisites for possible provocative actions by the Ukrainian armed forces", Ushakov notes.

During the conversation with Macron, Putin assured his French counterpart that the West is not doing enough to force Ukraine to comply with the Minsk agreements. Moscow has repeatedly accused Kiev of breaching these treaties by refusing any dialogue with the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Following the call, a French presidency official said Paris does not believe Moscow is preparing an attack on Ukraine. "From what Putin has told Macron, we have no indication that Putin is preparing an offensive," the official told the media, Reuters reports. "However, we are extremely vigilant and alert to the Russian (military) posture to avoid the worst," he added. 

During the meeting in Moscow between Macron and Putin last week the two presidents managed to find some common ground. The French leader described some of the proposals made by Moscow as "realistic", while Putin described the summit as "useful and substantive".

Blinken maintained the same tone as Biden during his conversation with Lavrov. "If Moscow chooses the path of aggression and continues to invade Ukraine, the response from the United States and our allies will be swift. It will be united, it will be tough," the secretary of state warned. On the other hand, he also assured that the diplomatic track remained open. "The way for Moscow to demonstrate that it wants to pursue that path is simple. It should de-escalate rather than escalate," he said. 

Lavrov, by contrast, accused the US of launching a "propaganda campaign" against Russia. He stressed that this campaign is aimed at provocation, "encouraging the Kiev authorities to sabotage the Minsk agreements and nefarious attempts to solve the Donbass problem" by force.

As the crisis in Eastern Europe escalates, tensions between the West and Russia are shifting to the Pacific, specifically the Sea of Okhotsk. The Russian Defence Ministry has reported the presence of a US nuclear submarine in its territorial waters near the Kuril Islands.

The Russian ship Marshal Shaposhnikov informed the US submarine that it had entered Russian territorial waters, but its warning was ignored. For this reason, the Russian ship "used appropriate means" to force the submarine to surface, the Russian ministry said, without specifying those means. 

Moscow also recalled that this move was a "serious violation of international law". "The provocative actions of the US Navy ship created a threat to Russia's national security," the Russian ministry added.

The incident comes shortly after Japan complained to Moscow about the Russian Navy's military exercises near the Kuril Islands, which are claimed by Tokyo. The archipelago has been at the centre of a territorial dispute between Japan and Russia since the end of World War II.

On the other hand, Tokyo has expressed concern about the current situation in Europe. "Japan is watching with concern the Russian military movement, which is increasing in the Ukrainian border area,' foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said earlier this month. In this regard, the Japanese government has also announced that it will send part of its liquefied gas reserves to Europe in the face of a possible lack of supply on the continent. This gesture has been praised by the European Union and the United States, which have been seeking alternatives to Russian gas for some time.

In Europe, diplomacy continues. This week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is scheduled to travel to Moscow to meet with Putin. Scholz and Putin have only spoken on the phone once since the chancellor took office in December, according to official German government sources. Berlin has been criticised by some NATO allies and Ukraine for what they see as a "soft stance" on the crisis in Eastern Europe.

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra