That' s how terrorism works in the time of the coronavirus

Geopolitics, economy, tourism, travel, work...the coronavirus pandemic has become a global crisis affecting many parts of the world and is turning the modern way of life upside down. Faced with this complex global scenario, terrorist groups are also moving and changing their behaviour to adapt to the new situation, several experts explained on Tuesday during an online session organised by the International Observatory for the Study of Terrorism. 

The coronavirus crisis is already having an influence on some of the hot spots in the Middle East, such as Iraq or Syria. "There is increasing insecurity in the area and there have been several riots in prisons where Daesh members are currently serving their sentences. They were demanding masks and means of protection," said Pilar Cebrián, a journalist specialising in jihadism and based in Istanbul. Cebrian also points out that Daesh is becoming stronger in Iraq as the pandemic advances and that the trials of foreign jihadists are being postponed because of COVID-19.  

"The last few weeks have seen a relaxation of civilian deaths on the war front in Syria. Perhaps the coronavirus is helping to end the war in the country. It' s an opportunity for the Damascus government to aid the population in areas it doesn't have control over yet and to legitimise itself," she said. 

Daesh and al-Qaeda propaganda has called for the release of terrorist prisoners and urged scholars and ulemas to promote jihad during the Ramadan period, according to Sergio Altuna, a security consultant and researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano. The expert has explained what kind of propaganda Al Qaeda and Daesh started to distribute during the coronavirus crisis. "In their official communications they have explained that the pandemic is a divine punishment. Al Qaeda points out that the usury practiced by the West is being punished by the virus," Altuna said. Daesh, for his part, has pointed out in his propaganda that the coronavirus is a divine punishment for the intervention of Western armies in the Middle East.  

The analyst says that both groups have been changing their propaganda messages as the pandemic has progressed. "At first they said it was a punishment to China for its repression of the Uyghur people, when it spread to Iran they said they deserved it as heretics and when it reached the West they said it was a divine sanction for capitalism," he said.  

Al Qaeda propaganda has also spread the word that the pandemic has led to the closure of bars and discos, places that they consider to be sinful. For his part, Daesh has called for attacks in large cities and for exploiting the withdrawal of foreign troops in the Middle East to resume the path of conquest. "One thing is the threats they make and another is their ability to carry them out," Altuna said.  

Far-right groups have also been quick to take a stand on the pandemic. "They have expanded conspiracy theories. Some neo-Nazi groups in the United States have even denied its existence and claim that it is a government strategy to curtail freedoms," said Cristina Ariza, a researcher at the Tony Blair Institute. These groups have also spread information that the UN has created the virus in a laboratory to kill the white population. The UK has seen a surge in hate crimes due to the spread of such conspiracy theories, Ariza said.  

Moussa Bourekba, a researcher at the Cidob (Barcelona Center for International Affairs) drew the similarities between the pandemic and terrorism during his talk. "They are invisible, they are inside and outside borders, they choose their victims indiscriminately, they are an exceptional and unexpected event and governments are forced to take exceptional measures," he said.  

Bourekba has warned of the danger of making the extraordinary regulations put in place to combat COVID-19 permanent. "Our state of law cannot be trapped in quarantine," he explained. The analyst gave the example of the changes introduced after the 9/11 attacks, which were in principle exceptional, but which have been maintained over time. This researcher has also pointed out the danger of groups outside the state taking advantage of this crisis to legitimize themselves. "The Taliban or Hezbollah are taking advantage, providing medical equipment and setting up hospitals," he said.

Another problem with the pandemic is the danger of radicalization. "A lot of people could be soaking up radical interpretations right now and there's no way to control it," Altuna warned. Although it''s difficult to know what the possibility of an attack occurring during quarantine is, its media impact would be brutal and would have profound security implications, concluded the Elcano expert.