Sahel terrorism spreads to the Maghreb

The Sahel has become the scene of the strengthening of jihadist terrorism. The movements of the Islamic State in the Maghreb, where there have been clashes between state forces and jihadists in countries such as Libya and Algeria, in addition to the thwarted attempt at a terrorist attack in Tunisia, have demonstrated the improved organisational capacity of these Islamic groups.

In contrast to the heavy blows that jihadism received during 2014 and 2017 in Algeria, Libya and Tunisia, last January, the terrorist organisation rose from the ashes after waging a series of attacks against the security forces of these countries. In Libya, on 26 January, a Daesh group clashed with Libyan National Army forces and just 24 hours later the Algerian Ministry of Defence announced the death of two military personnel in the border province of Ain Qezzam with Niger. 

Then, on 28 January, Tunisia, a country far from the Sahel region, claimed to have successfully thwarted a terrorist attack that targeted a tourist area. According to the interior ministry, the authorities arrested a 22-year-old woman from Syria who had joined Daesh there in 2020, a year in which she was trained by the terrorists.

These attacks perpetrated in three Maghreb countries may be a reflection of the diaspora that the terrorist group has managed to carry out its operations beyond the Sahel area and thus expand throughout the African continent. 

This resurgence, however, is seen more as an awakening of the group since, despite the counter-terrorism operations deployed in the Sahel, terrorism has not been eradicated and is far from being eradicated. In Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, civilians continue to suffer terrorist attacks, and terrorists in the region have already shown how easy it is to reorganise themselves.

The recent fall of Daesh's leader in the Sahel, Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahraoui, has not weakened the group, as it is not excluded that the operations transferred to the Maghreb countries have come from a central head. Moreover, these aggressions have coincided with the assault on the Sinaa prison in Syria, an assault that pitted Kurdish-Syrian forces against the terrorists and became the biggest attack suffered by the jihadists since the fall of their "Caliphate". 

Analysts are already pointing out that Africa has become the epicentre of the jihad and that the most recent attacks are developing from there. Moreover, these attacks, which are thought to be interrelated, are occurring at a time when the West is withdrawing its troops from both Asia, such as Afghanistan, and Africa.

As has happened in Afghanistan with the withdrawal of US troops, terrorism has increased since French President Emmanuel Macron announced the end of "Operation Barkhane". The operation, deployed in the Sahel by the French Armed Forces together with local countries, was aimed at fighting terrorism in the area. Macron now intends to withdraw his troops in order to provide "support and cooperation with the armies of the region that wish to do so" and to set up "an international alliance involving the states of the region and all our partners strictly focused on the fight against terrorism". 

However, France's presence in this region is now being questioned for its alleged ineffectiveness in this regard. In part, it is pointed out that the operation was not sufficiently equipped to fill the gaps left in the countryside by the former rulers and now occupied by terrorists.

As a strictly terrorism-focused operation, the deployment retains certain flaws in terms of state-building and peacekeeping, which is not easy due to the instability of the area. 

Another problem that the French troops themselves encountered was the ineffectiveness of the local armies. Mired in corruption and nepotism, the armies do not maintain professional rigour, and the precarious salaries they receive do not serve as an incentive to try to change the situation. Given this situation, they have proved unsuccessful in the fight against terrorism, and the initial objective has not been achieved.

Moreover, the armies of the "Group of Five" - Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad - do not cooperate due to the very nature of the member countries. Internal instability, military presence in the spheres of power, further exacerbated by a wave of coups d'état that are shaking the continent, make cooperation among the five complicated. 

All of this in addition to another of the main challenges that the region is beginning to face: high population growth, an increase that is worrying due to the low capacity of these countries to respond to the population's demands.

Despite the operations deployed by both Europe and the UN, it is feared that the international community's commitment in this area will not be sufficient. This is especially true for the main challenge facing citizens: the very corruption, human rights violations and bad governance that surrounds the political sphere in the area. However, it is not only the political sphere that is mired in a serious crisis. The root goes beyond the surface and is structured in the state configuration itself. The challenges are abrupt and diverse, and the people of the Sahel must play a leading role in bringing about change, but the means to do so are often insufficient. 

However, beyond state structuring, the challenge of terrorism is not merely local, since at any moment it can cross borders and reach other countries, as we have seen recently in some Maghreb countries. Jihadism is not only a Sahelian challenge, but a global challenge of which anyone can be a victim, and now, with this resurgence, it is clear that the war against terrorism has neither been won nor ended.