Saudi Arabia leads the imminent peace in Yemen
A historic moment for Yemen. The country, which is the scene of the world's largest humanitarian catastrophe, could reach peace in the coming weeks after more than nine years of a devastating and uninterrupted civil war. Talks to end hostilities between Yemenis and Houthis are already taking place in Sana'a, but this time it is Saudi Arabia that is leading the most hopeful negotiations since the war began in 2014.
The key image came at the Republican Palace in the Yemeni capital, the stronghold of the Shiite rebel group. There, the head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, received a Saudi delegation led by the Kingdom's ambassador to Yemen, Mohamed al-Jaber, and an Omani delegation, the neighbour and traditional talker in the Gulf conflicts.
The proposals for peace are clear. The agreement includes increasing the number of flights to Sana'a airport, the resumption of oil exports from the country's ports, the opening of roads in Taiz province, the release of all prisoners and the transport of goods directly to the port of Aden. Proposals made some time ago by the self-styled 'Supporters of God' for the payment of salaries to civil servants, economic compensation, a complete end to the 'Saudi occupation' and the reconstruction of the country remain to be negotiated.
The Saudi efforts have been hailed by the UN as "the closest Yemen has come to real progress towards a lasting peace" between the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels who seized power in 2014 and the internationally recognised Yemeni government, which has been supported by Riyadh throughout. An imminent peace that, if it happens, could be announced before the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr on 20 April, the end of Ramadan.
Saudi Arabia is taking the Middle East by storm. In a new foreign policy realignment, the Kingdom's strongman, Mohammed bin Salman, has dusted off the old policy of appeasement to put an end to latent conflicts. In recent weeks, Riyadh has resumed relations with Bashar al-Assad's Syria and with its bitter regional enemy, Ali Khamenei's Islamic Republic of Iran, the key player in reaching agreements in other scenarios, such as Lebanon and Iraq. And all of this with a clear objective: the diversification of the Kingdom's economy.
The Saudi Vision 2030 is the country's strategic framework for reducing its dependence on oil and seeking other economic alternatives. But for the stability of the market, the pacification of the region is fundamental, and that is precisely what Xi Jinping's China is working on, especially for the great New Silk Road project. The seed of peace, which bore its first fruit in the agreements between Riyadh and Tehran in Beijing, is now expected to germinate in Yemen. An end to hostilities in the Gulf country would, in turn, be an irremediable triumph of China's current policy in the face of an out-of-step US.
The United States has long been experiencing a progressive distancing from the Middle East, especially since Joe Biden arrived in the Oval Office. The chill over the Khashoggi affair and the Democrat's accusation of the crown prince as a 'pariah' have contributed to MBS moving his chips in a different direction, starting by denying Washington's request to increase oil production to deal with the crisis unleashed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Nor did Biden's visit to Riyadh have much political mileage.
However, the US is aware of the renewed Middle East policy and, above all, Saudi efforts to achieve peace in Yemen. The US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, spoke to Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday and told him that Washington "welcomes Saudi Arabia's extraordinary efforts to achieve a more comprehensive roadmap to end the war" and offered "the full support of the United States for the efforts".
But the congratulations do not detract from the fact that the US still wants to be on the scene. The US special envoy for Yemen, Tim Lenderking, will visit the region to meet with "Yemeni, Saudi and international partners to discuss the steps necessary to secure a durable ceasefire and an inclusive UN-mediated political process". For the moment, peace in Yemen is not a two-way street.