Security and defence in post-COVID-19 Spain

The world was already very complex before the COVID-19 crisis, but with the pandemic the challenges have multiplied and, if before the main concern around citizen security was terrorism and migratory crises, now it is a virus that began in the remote Chinese province of Hubei and has affected almost the entire globe.

Spain has been particularly affected, with around 230,000 people infected and more than 26,000 dead, making it the biggest challenge for the country in this century. In addition, the health crisis has led to an economic and social crisis that has already shown the first consequences.

On the security and defence of the country and under the direction of Lieutenant General Francisco de P. Bisbal Pons, a virtual round table was held with leading guests and organised by the Centro Superior de Estudios de la Defensa Nacional (CESEDEN).

Among the participants who contributed their vision of the situation and a projection of the near future in terms of security and defence for the country were Lieutenant General Fernando López del Pozo, Commander of the Operations Command; Mr Eduardo Olier, President of the Choiseul Institute Spain; Brigadier General José Antonio Herrera Llamas, Head of the Joint Centre for Concept Development, and Brigadier General Francisco J. Dacoba Cerviño, Director of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE).

The new challenges that Spain will have to face can be divided into different thematic aspects: economy, national security strategy and the work of the Armed Forces in the new scenario.

It is very difficult to make forecasts, but there are three undoubted facts: the tremendous health effects, the collapse of the global economy and the crisis in the microeconomy, says Olier. 

The expert considers that the main problem in the economic activity is the crisis of demand, promoted by the cessation of business and commercial activity: " Activity stops as the buyers do not go out", he says. This has translated into dismal data such as the 5% drop in GDP in the United States, or capital flight in Asian countries, which could lead to a major global recession. "In the future, the International Monetary Fund will suffer a vertical drop but a recovery will come, although it will not be the same in China, the U.S. or Europe," he warns.

One of the questions that arises is whether the geostrategic landscape will be reconfigured. "The dynamics of transformation of the world were already there before the pandemic, but this crisis is going to accelerate some of them and slow down others," says Dacoba.

Terrorism and migration trends are still there and will continue to be one of the main challenges, now compounded by the weakening of multilateralism. The action of global leadership that the United States has given up, and which China can take away - but under the shadow of totalitarianism -, together with a rise in nationalism and unilateralism, is leading to a multipolar world with vast asymmetries between the different players.

Despite the unpredictability of COVID-19, a pandemic was already among the risks that Spain could face, and this was reflected in its prospective plans on the dangers by the IEEE, which established a pandemic as a threat to national security. "The coronavirus was already a known risk. It is necessary to confront this situation in a comprehensive manner, and the armed forces have contributed to protecting the state," says Herrera Llamas.

Although the health crisis is where efforts are focused, "we must not neglect other missions, such as permanent ones or those abroad because of the pandemic, since we must continue to defend it internationally," he adds.

Another question about security and defence is how the dynamics of allied countries in terms of defence within organisations such as NATO and the European Union (EU) will change.

On this subject, the Minister of Defence herself, Margarita Robres, stated that it was necessary to achieve global action, especially within the EU. "But it is true that the circumstances of the simultaneous difficulties have benefited the prevalence of the state, over cooperation, and there has been some occurrence of selfishness," said Herrera Llamas.

Another of the topics included in the round table was the so-called Operation Balmis, in honour of the military doctor from Alicante, Francisco Javier Balmis (1753-1819), who managed to get the smallpox vaccine to the Philippines and Spanish America. This operation carried out by the Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces, through the Emergency Military Unit (EMU), played an essential role in the fight against COVID-19 by providing medical equipment, logistical land transport, general and medicalised air transport, air traffic control, as well as navigation and logistical accommodation.

General López del Pozo was placed in charge of the operation, assuring that the men and women who have worked on this mission "have managed to deploy quickly, shortly after the Minister of Defence said that action was needed", which has produced very good results. Although López del Pozo explained that they should have provided more aid to the health personnel, he acknowledged that they lacked the necessary supplies.

At this point, it should be remembered that the operation continues until the state of alarm ends, maintaining some measures for the prevention of new outbreaks.