Somalia and Ethiopia reach a deal to reduce tensions in the Horn of Africa mediated by Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has succeeded in getting Somalia and Ethiopia to sign an agreement to ease tensions between the two countries, which will also have a positive impact on the Horn of Africa region.

As Erdogan announced, Somalia and Ethiopia agreed to resolve their dispute over the separatist region of Somaliland and to respond to Ethiopia's demands for access to the sea. In this regard, the two nations have agreed to seek trade agreements that would allow Addis Ababa to gain ‘secure and sustainable access to and from the ocean’.

At a joint press conference in Ankara, Erdogan thanked Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for their ‘historic reconciliation’.

‘This joint statement focuses on the future, not the past, and embodies the principles that these two friendly countries, which are very important to us, will build from now on,’ the Turkish leader wrote on social media.

Erdogan also expressed his hope that this agreement would be ‘the first step towards a new beginning based on peace and cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia’.

Turkey has a number of strategies in place to promote a solution aligned with its interests in Somalia, both militarily and economically. It also seeks close relations with Ethiopia, a key power in the Horn of Africa region and a gateway to the heart of the African continent.

Al-Arab reports, based on Turkish sources, that Erdogan pressured the Somali president to accept the deal, threatening to turn his attention to Ethiopia and the Somaliland and Jubaland regions.

Ankara has played a key role in protecting Somali authorities and helping them deal with internal conflicts. Turkey has also trained Somali military and security forces, where it has established a military base that has allowed it to strengthen its influence in the area.

It is possible that the Turkish-driven agreement will succeed, albeit temporarily, in defusing tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia. However, as Al-Arab warns, it could also have a negative impact on Egyptian diplomacy, as Cairo had seen the Mogadishu-Addis Ababa dispute as an opportunity to respond to the Ethiopian prime minister's rejection of an agreement on the Renaissance Dam that takes Egypt's interests into account.

Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia revolve around the control and use of the waters of the Nile River, with a particular focus on the construction and operation of the Renaissance Ethiopia Dam (GERD).

Cairo failed to garner regional and international support to change Ethiopia's position, leading it to seek a different strategy to confront Addis Ababa, finding in Somalia an avenue to become involved in the dispute. As such, this agreement could push Egypt to reconsider its approach to the region.

Egyptian sources consulted by the Arab media expressed doubts about the feasibility of implementing an agreement. They downplayed the benefits Ethiopia could gain from the deal, pointing out that the facilities Addis Ababa will receive will not include military bases, but rather freedom of access to the Red Sea that will not necessarily be via Somaliland.

They also warned of Turkey's strong ambitions in the Horn of Africa, noting that Ankara has close relations with Somalia, Ethiopia and Somaliland, which would allow it to strengthen its presence in the region. They also raised the possibility that Turkey might seek to undermine the influence of other powers it perceives as competitors.