South Caucasus under the influence of Iran and Russia
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the threat posed by the alliance between Russia and Iran at the global level. However, in addition to Ukraine, there are other hotspots where the presence of both powers must be analysed and monitored. One such region is the South Caucasus, an area where both Moscow and Tehran enjoy some influence.
The South Caucasus is not only the scene of territorial disputes, but also a centre of great strategic and energy importance. For this reason, certain countries in the region, such as Azerbaijan, have been in the European Union's sights since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that has forced the continent to look for new energy partners. Caucasian countries not only emerge as new allies in this regard, but can also connect pipelines between resource-rich Central Asian nations such as Turkmenistan and Europe via Turkey.
For these reasons, the situation in the South Caucasus 'is paramount for Europe', as David Aidelman, an Israeli historian and political analyst, emphasises during a conference organised by the European Jewish Association (EJA) on the region and the role of Russia and Iran. Aidelman also warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to do 'everything possible' to block energy supplies to Europe.
He also asserts that 'as long as Putin's Russia has the means, it will try to destabilise the South Caucasus'. The historian highlights, for example, Russia's sabotage of any chance for peace, as well as the recent clash between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left five people dead. "The incident took place in the area controlled by Russian peacekeepers, who somehow did nothing," he explains.
In addition to Russia, another major challenge for the region is Iran. "With these neighbours, there is a danger not only for the South Caucasus, but for the whole world," Aidelman stresses, who believes that the regime in Tehran is trying to merge three wars into one: Russia against Ukraine, Armenia against Azerbaijan and Iran against Israel, three conflicts that would lead to a global conflict.
The danger posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, not only at the regional level, is one more reason to support the ongoing protests in the country seeking regime change. For Aidelman, the poisoning of girls and human rights violations are part of a global problem. "The revolution taking place in Iran is going to be part of the great historical momentum, not just for the Middle East but for the whole world, and deserves as much attention as the war in Ukraine," he says.
20 students were poisoned and hospitalised today in Sanandaj as chemical attacks continue on school children in Iran under the Islamic republic.
— Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) March 6, 2023
Where is the global outrage?! #IranChemicalAttacks #IranRevolution pic.twitter.com/MRv1HKjwQL
For his part, Gela Vasadze, a Georgian political scientist, was keen to stress that countries under Russia's influence, such as Armenia, Moldova or Georgia itself, "may become objects of Russian revenge after a defeat in Ukraine". Vasadze recalls that 20 percent of Georgian territory is already occupied by Russia, although he expects Russia to be forced to leave the country in the coming years.
A large part of the region's citizens have expressed support for Ukraine since the war began because, in Vasadze's words, "they know very well what Russia is". "The level of support that Georgia has given to Ukraine since the first day of this war can be compared to that of Poland or Lithuania. I don't think any other country has the same level of support as us," says the political scientist, who also points to the numerous Georgian volunteers fighting in Ukraine.
A loooot of #Georgians in #Brussels today! Thank you, @PromoteUkraine for this level of organisation! #Ukraine #Georgia #EU pic.twitter.com/2Q4jttSbMU
— Kristina Pitalskaya (@Pitalskaya_K) February 25, 2023
Like Georgia, Azerbaijan has also shown its support for Ukraine by sending humanitarian aid. In Armenia, according to Vasadze, the situation is "a bit different", as Russia's influence is much greater. "To a large extent, the vast majority of the population of the South Caucasus supports Ukraine and considers this war that Russia is waging to be unjust," he concludes.
