Did Boris Johnson underestimate the pandemic?

“The UK lost five crucial weeks” and underestimated the consequences that the COVID-19 pandemic would have on the health of the British people. This is one of the phrases with which the British newspaper The Sunday Times has described, in an investigation, how the British Executive dealt with the pandemic. And in an unusual move, the Downing Street Health Department selected the newspaper's allegations to refute them and described the elements of its investigation as “clearly false” and “ridiculous”.

In parts, the article criticized the lack of coordination and decision-making by the Johnson Administration. According to the text, the British 'premier' didn't attend five emergency meetings of Cabinet Office Briefing Room A (COBRA). These meetings, which are usually chaired by the prime minister and a high-level staff such as the heads of intelligence and generals, were convened to share and discuss the information held by the British authorities in mid-February and thus prepare the National Health Service (NHS). But Johnson, who is now successfully recovering from the virus after several days in intensive care, didn't attend any of the meetings.

At first, the British government opted for the theory of 'collective immunity', a strategy defended by the Johnson Administration's scientific advisor, Patrick Vallance, who argued that 60% of the British population should be infected in order to achieve immunity and control the virus in the long term. 

The steps taken by Johnson held on to this risky theory. On February 28, when the first death of a British citizen with a coronavirus was confirmed, the British chief executive said that slowing down coronavirus infections was his government's number one priority, one month after the first case was confirmed in the islands.

Faced with the drastic decisions taken by the countries in Europe most affected by the COVID-19, such as Spain and Italy, to suspend all events and limit the movement of their citizens, even to go to work, Johnson opted for much less aggressive measures, suggesting maintaining hygiene and thus avoiding a halt in the British economy.

Johnson's roadmap was based on the theory that, if the peak of the pandemic could be delayed, the NHS would cope more effectively with the disease when the climate improved, as more beds would be available in the summer as the number of people with common respiratory diseases decreased. But by March 12, the numbers of infections and deaths had risen significantly. That's when the prime minister admitted that “many families are going to lose loved ones before time”.

These statements spread a certain panic among the British public, even more so when a study from Imperial College in London was made public, in which, based on a mathematical model, it warned that more than 250,000 people could die from the coronavirus if the government didn't change its strategy. 

The decision to go ahead with collective immunity, according to the British media, came from Johnson's senior adviser Dominic Cummings, who is seen as the hand that pulls the strings in British politics and the great strategist behind the campaign to leave the European Union.

The Sunday Times article quoted him on March 12 as saying that collective immunity “will protect the economy, and if that means some pensioners will die, too bad”. Days later, like his boss, Cummings reported that he had symptoms of COVID-19 and decided to isolate himself. Later, the British news agency PA said that Cummings and Johnson were in contact via video conference. At the last one, the consultant changed his speech: “Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save lives”.

The upsurge in cases and the evolution of the disease in Europe led Johnson to start talking about “suppression” rather than mitigation of the virus. And on March 2, the president finally attended a COBRA meeting. However, it was not until the 20th of that month that the British Prime Minister ordered a quarantine, closing down bars, restaurants, cinemas, gyms. Three days later, on the 23rd, the Tory Government ordered the closure of all non-essential shops, teleworking where possible and limiting movement.

According to the BBC, The Sunday Times journalist Jonathan Leake, one of the authors of the controversial article, pointed out the Brexit process as one of the mistakes - or “distractions” - that the government made, by not listening to the scientific community because it was more aware of the European Union's exit negotiations. “January 26 and 27 was a time when the government was incredibly distracted by the EU's exit [...] the government should have paid more attention to what was coming up,” the British network reports. 

“Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings about the virus, ignored calls for protective equipment and ignored scientists' warnings. The failures that occurred in February may have cost thousands of lives,” reads the Sunday Times article.

For its part, The Mirror, a popular tabloid in England, claimed that Johnson and his partner, Carrie Symonds, spent nearly two weeks in a country mansion while the government cabinet held emergency meetings on COVID-19.

All these statements in the conservative newspaper have been rejected by the British government, insisting that the UK “has been taking steps and working to improve its preparation since the beginning of January”.

In a statement on the British Government's website, the Department of Health and Social Care Media Centre said that “this is an unprecedented global pandemic and we have taken the right measures at the right time to combat it, guided at all times by the best scientific advice”. 

In an unprecedented response, the Executive's text takes up point by point what they see as “misrepresentations” and shows their version of events. According to the British authorities, the usual thing is that the Prime Minister doesn't attend COBRA meetings and instead the Secretary of Health chairs them. 

In addition, the Sunday Times article reports that the government sent 279,000 items from its health arsenal in response to China's request to combat the virus. However, the Executive replied that the equipment given to Beijing was not from the stockpile and that “we provided this equipment to China to meet its needs and China has since reciprocated our donation. Between 2 and 15 April, we received over 12 million pieces of personal protection equipment in the UK from China”.

Faced with the British newspaper's criticism of Downing Street's attitude of “trying to minimize the threat with an almost indifferent attitude,” the Health Department defends itself and suggests that, at that time, in February, “extensive and detailed work was being carried out”.

For the moment, the United Kingdom has counted more than 130,000 infected people and nearly 19,000 deaths, although, according to an investigation by the Financial Times, not all deaths from coronaviruses are being counted, so the true number of deaths would be close to 40,000, according to data from the National Statistics Office. According to the economic newspaper, the British government only takes into account those deaths that had been diagnosed as positive for COVID-19 in hospitals, without taking into account those who died in nursing homes or those who had not yet been diagnosed by the tests.