Sudan crisis: Khartoum in 2026, capital of epidemics and the failure of voluntary return
- The worst displacement crisis
- Epidemics and administrative negligence
- A failed voluntary return
- Who is responsible?
Up close, the impact of the ongoing war is painful for civilians in various states of Sudan, including Khartoum. The resident representative of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Sudan told CNBC Arabia on Wednesday that “government revenues have fallen by 70% to 80% as a result of the war and its repercussions,” confirming that “around 4 million internally displaced persons left Khartoum during the conflict.”
The worst displacement crisis
Regarding the ongoing war in Sudan, a report by the Global Conflict Tracker, published last December, notes that "amid the bloody conflict, estimates of the death toll vary widely. The former US envoy to Sudan previously indicated that up to 400,000 people have died since the conflict began on April 15, 2023. More than 11 million people have been displaced, resulting in the world's worst displacement crisis. The United Nations continues to call for more support, as more than 30 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.“
The outlook in Sudan is bleak. The report also confirms that ”access to humanitarian aid remains a critical concern for many international actors.
In addition to the casualties, the attacks have destroyed hospitals and other vital infrastructure. Since August 2023, UN reports have spoken of the collapse of the health system and fears of the spread of disease. The report also recalls the UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cessation of violence in Sudan,
on March 8, 2024, accepted by the Sudanese Army, which subsequently made its implementation conditional on the withdrawal of the Rapid Support Forces from their positions, leading to fighting around Khartoum involving Iranian and Turkish-made drones.
Last year, the stated positions of the two sides in the conflict were clearer: the Rapid Support Forces accepted a truce proposed by the international quartet (the United States, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia), while the Sudanese army responded with reservations and unrealistic demands, led by the surrender of weapons and the total withdrawal of the Rapid Support Forces from the areas under their control.
Epidemics and administrative negligence
Since last year, the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, has suffered successive waves of disease that have caused deaths due to the contamination of drinking water mixed with sewage or exposed to pollution. The most recent was confirmed yesterday by the Preparatory Committee of the Sudanese Doctors' Union, which reported “hundreds of new dengue infections, including 39 deaths, in the state of Khartoum.”
The committee's official spokesperson, Sayyed Mohamed Abdallah, told the Sudan Tribune that “alarming statistics have been detected indicating an upward epidemic curve of dengue cases, with 211 new infections recorded, including 39 deaths so far in Khartoum.” The most vulnerable groups topped the list of deaths: 22 women and 6 children, amid a severe shortage of basic medical supplies.
The committee fears an “explosion of the health situation in the displacement camps during the winter and due to the shortage of operational health centers,” after 2,576 cases of malaria were recorded in a context of food shortages and weakened immunity. Abdallah stresses that “the figures do not reflect the real magnitude of the disaster due to the difficulty of conducting a comprehensive count,” and warns of a possible resurgence of the epidemic curve after a period of decline, due to environmental deterioration and the absence of preventive measures.
The spokesperson attributes “the worsening of infections to administrative negligence and the absence of institutional intervention,” pointing to the congestion of patients in hospitals in the face of a severe shortage of intravenous fluids and vital medicines. He explains that “the causes of the spread of dengue and malaria are due to the total collapse of the environment due to the accumulation of waste, sewage overflow, stagnant puddles, and the proliferation of the transmitting mosquito in water reservoirs.”
As calls increase from the government of South Sudan—appointed by Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan—for displaced persons to return to Khartoum, the Preparatory Committee of the Doctors' Union warns, citing an assessment published by Norwegian Church Aid and the International Medical Teams Organization, that “government funding covers less than 10% of the operating costs of health facilities in operation in Khartoum.”
The same assessment reveals that “70% of health centers lack antibiotics; 85% suffer from a shortage of malaria drugs; and 45% do not have a safe water source.”
A previous report by the Ayin network, published last September, warned of “entire neighborhoods of Khartoum flooded with rainwater and piles of garbage generating a suffocating stench, along with the proliferation of swarms of flies and mosquitoes.” That report appeared six months after the army returned to the capital in March 2025.
This was followed by warnings about “the accumulation of waste mixed with stagnant water, where war combines with the collapse of municipal services, transforming neighborhoods into open dumps and streets into swamps conducive to the spread of disease.” In cities exhausted by fighting and the absence of local authorities, garbage ceased to be a sign of neglect and became a permanent threat to public health and a direct danger to people's lives.
However, any citizen complaint about administrative corruption in any sector is usually met with obvious repression. A recent example was revealed by Sudanese writer Awab Azzam Al-Boushi on January 18 on his X account, when he reported "the arrest by the authorities in Port Sudan of an army soldier after he spoke out about corruption and bribery in military posts, especially the imposition of illegal fees on citizens and drivers on the roads, at a time when the country is experiencing an extremely complex humanitarian and economic situation.“
Al-Boushi quotes observers who believe that this measure ”reflects the persistence of a repressive approach against voices denouncing corruption, rather than opening investigations and demanding accountability, which raises serious doubts about the authorities' real willingness to combat corruption and protect whistleblowers."
The local newspaper Al-Rakouba previously quoted former member of Sudan's Sovereign Council Malik Agar,who said that “corruption is widespread within government institutions, and that some people who worked with ministers over the past two years bought apartments in Turkey, in addition to owning land in the Sudanese state of Red Sea.” These statements provoked widespread reactions on social media, as they were considered an official acknowledgment of financial irregularities in Port Sudan's institutions during the war, while millions of Sudanese suffer harsh humanitarian, health, and living conditions.
A failed voluntary return
In recent days, the army government has attempted to move forward by ignoring the health situation and devastated infrastructure in Khartoum, inviting displaced persons to return to the capital. However, the Sudanese Media Forum stated in January that “the voluntary return program promoted by the army-allied government as a ray of hope for displaced persons and refugees remains stalled, with growing questions about the causes of its failure and who is responsible for turning it from a government duty and humanitarian project into a mere political slogan without tangible results.”
The forum maintains that “the facts on the ground confirm that the conditions for a safe return have not yet been met, and that thousands of Sudanese families remain trapped between displacement camps and refugee borders.” Furthermore, “there is insufficient information about the refugees targeted for return,” and consistent testimonies indicate that “their areas of origin have been completely destroyed or lack the most basic services—water, health, and education—in addition to persistent insecurity and the proliferation of weapons.”
It also warns that “these statements coincide with reports from humanitarian organizations confirming that more than 60% of potential return areas are uninhabitable.” At the institutional level, research reveals “a clear gap between official discourse and executive reality.” According to humanitarian action experts, the voluntary return program “lacked a comprehensive national plan from the outset and was based on scattered and underfunded initiatives.”
It concludes that “the failure of the voluntary return program after two years of war is not the result of a single factor, but rather the consequence of a lack of political will, insecurity, deteriorating services, and the absence of a comprehensive national vision for reconstruction and peacebuilding.”
Who is responsible?
The question Sudanese people are asking themselves today is no longer who fired the first bullet, but who is refusing to stop the war. Sudanese activist Bashir Sakin wrote in X that “Sudan is currently experiencing one of the darkest periods in its contemporary history due to the crimes of Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, president of the Sovereign Council and commander of the army, who faces serious international and human rights accusations and is allied with the Muslim Brotherhood against the Sudanese people.”
He cites as evidence that “international human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, as well as UN commissions of inquiry, have levelled direct accusations against Al-Burhan, in his capacity as commander of the army, for his responsibility in a series of violations.” He notes that “during the wars of 2023 and 2024, explosive barrels and aerial bombardments destroyed entire residential neighborhoods in Khartoum, Nyala, and Wad Madani, in addition to hindering the arrival of aid to opposition-controlled areas.” barrel bombs and aerial bombardments destroyed entire residential neighborhoods in Khartoum, Nyala, and Wad Madani, in addition to hindering the arrival of aid to opposition-controlled areas, causing famine in displacement camps and the detention of thousands of activists and politicians in secret military intelligence prisons without legal charges."
It adds that “the crimes include attacks on hospitals and water and electricity facilities, which put more than 80% of the healthcare system out of service, as well as an alliance with the former Islamist regime of ousted President Omar al-Bashir.”
It concludes by stating that "in 2026, international silence is no longer possible. The International Criminal Court has begun to collect testimony on the role of military leaders in exacerbating the conflict. The principle of ‘command responsibility’ brings Al-Burhan before international justice, as a commander is not exempt from responsibility for crimes committed by his subordinates if he was aware of them and did not prevent them.
What Sudan is experiencing in early 2026 is the bitter result of years of prioritizing the language of weapons over reason and a bloody alliance between Al-Burhan and the Muslim Brotherhood to crush the Sudanese people, burning everything in its path, destroying infrastructure, tearing apart the social fabric, and plunging the country into a dark tunnel of violations."