Sudan: Fears that US efforts to secure a truce will fail due to the flow of weapons
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio renewed his country's call to “reach a humanitarian truce in Sudan, as the new year presents an opportunity to do so,” urging countries to use their influence to establish peace. He noted that Washington's immediate goal is to halt hostilities before the New Year, thus allowing humanitarian organizations to deliver aid.
Rubio also said, “We believe that the new year and the upcoming holidays represent a great opportunity for both sides to agree to this, and we are doing everything we can in that regard,” warning that some countries are providing weapons to the warring factions, including arms shipments.
Days after US President Donald Trump confirmed his intervention to stop the war in Sudan, the Secretary of State noted that “external parties have influence and leverage over the actors on the ground to achieve this humanitarian truce, and we are very focused on that.”
Since mid-April 2023, Sudan has been embroiled in a war between two military factions: the Sudanese army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who led the October 2021 coup, and the Rapid Support Forces, with the participation of other actors. The army is supported by the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadist militias.
Flights to Port Sudan
The arms transfer operations mentioned by the US Secretary of State coincided with the monitoring by the IGAD team, which, based on air navigation data, recently recorded an unusual increase in the arrival of cargo planes at Port Sudan International Airport from Istanbul Airport, in a development that exceeds normal activity.
By tracking records and cargo movements at Port Sudan airport—under the control of the army led by Al-Burhan—between December 1 and 17, at least 16 cargo flights were detected from various cities, mainly Istanbul, predominantly Boeing 737Fs, followed by Airbus A320s and an IL-76.
Observers believe that the nature of these Turkish flights goes beyond ordinary commercial transport and is linked to the transfer of material or logistical supplies. The number of flights showed a sharp jump: from four in the first week to 12 between December 8 and 16, i.e., a sudden and not gradual tripling in the same month.
For example, compared to November, when the airport recorded eight flights for the entire month, in December there were 16 flights in just two weeks, leading observers to assume the existence of an airlift linked to developments on the ground or potential preparations, especially given the arrival of aircraft with different registrations in the same period.
This increase in air transport suggests a strategic shift in the stance of the Port Sudan army and its allies, coinciding with the collapse of international truce proposals and worsening losses on the ground following the fall of El Fasher, Babnusa, and the Heglig oil field in the hands of Taasis Alliance forces, which would have accelerated military supplies to reinforce the army's defensive and offensive capabilities.
Rifles and drones
The Sudan News platform confirmed a few days ago the landing of three Turkish aircraft at Port Sudan airport, two cargo planes and one private plane, all arriving from Istanbul International Airport.
Citing Turkish political analyst Yamuta Kakri, a specialist in the Horn of Africa, the platform noted that “there are regional movements that will change the balance of power in Sudan, especially after the arrival of high-quality weapons on the ground in the near future,” indicating that these weapons will be used against Taasis Alliance forces.
A report by a team of UN experts, published a few months ago, confirmed the supply of new and modern weapons by Turkey to the Port Sudan army, reigniting concerns about violations of the international arms embargo.
The report, presented to the Security Council last July, highlighted several cases in which Turkish-made weapons were recovered from armed groups and militias, such as the BRG Savunma BRG-55 and HUSAN Arms MKA 556 rifles, both manufactured in Turkey and found in the possession of the Port Sudan army and affiliated groups.
The UN Commission reiterated its warning that the circulation of these weapons exacerbates violence in Sudan, where the army and associated militias have been implicated in serious human rights violations, forced displacement, and systematic attacks against civilians.
Since the start of the war, schools, markets, and civilian sites have been bombed with “Akinci” drones, produced by the Turkish company Baykar. This type of drone is used by the Port Sudan army in its air operations in conflict zones, especially in Darfur and Kordofan, although the army denies having attacked civilian targets, including markets.
On October 1, the Sudanese newspaper Al-Jamahir quoted a field source who claimed that the Taasis Alliance's air defenses managed to shoot down a Turkish “Bayraktar-Akinci” drone belonging to the Sudanese army over the city of El Fasher in North Darfur.
In recent months, Taasis forces announced the downing of several Turkish drones of the same model in El Fasher and in areas of Umm Samima, Abu Qeoud, and Al-Khuwai in Kordofan, confirming the strengthening of their air defense arsenal.
Reinforcing the accusations about Turkish arming of Al-Burhan's forces and jihadist militias with Akinci drones is a report published by The Washington Post last January, which noted that Baykar Defense supplied drones and missiles to the Port Sudan army since September 2024 in a secret shipment, and that a team from the company supervised the delivery on Sudanese territory.
The US newspaper obtained text messages, telephone recordings, photos, videos, weapons documents, and financial records revealing weapons worth no less than $120 million, including eight TB2 unmanned aircraft and hundreds of warheads, received by the Sudanese army in 2024.