Sudani’s failed balancing act could unleash Israeli strikes against Iraq’s pro-Iran militias

The failure of Iraqi government to rein in pro-Iranian armed groups threatens to unleash Israeli retaliation strikes against militias accused of being behind drone and missile attacks against the Jewish state. 

Saudi-owned TV channel Al-Hadath said that the US has informed Baghdad that Israeli air strikes against Iraq are “imminent,” unless the Iraqi government manages to check the pro-Iran militias on its soil. 

The US has told Iraq it has exhausted “all means of pressure on Israel,” and has asked Baghdad to quickly take action, said Al-Hadtah. 

While most drones launched from Iraq have been intercepted by Israeli air defences, one in early October killed two soldiers and wounded 24 at a base in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. 

The Iraqi government, which is dominated by pro-Iranian parties, has been pursuing a delicate balancing act in an effort to keep out of the widening regional conflict after the war in Gaza. 

But Iraqi political analysts say that the Iraqi premier has proved to be unable to distance himself from Iran and its allied militias, despite repeated pledges to keep Iraq out of the war. 

Iraqi news website Shafaq News reported on Tuesday  that Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa Al-Sudani  has  “directed all security forces to prevent and pursue any military activity outside the control of the state, in response to Israeli threats of targeting Iraq”. 

According to army spokesman Major General Yahya Rasul, Sudani chaired an emergency meeting of the National Security Ministerial Council, which reiterated that “the authority to decide on matters of peace and war exclusively lies with the Iraqi government.” 

Iraqi authorities said “legal action is being taken against anyone involved in activities that endanger Iraq’s security and sovereignty, the statement proceeded”. 

The analysts believe that the complaint lodged by Israel at the UN Security Council against the Iraqi militias is nothing more than a prelude to Israeli attacks on Iraq, regardless of any UN decision on the merits of the complaint. 

Iraq has accused Israel of attempting to legitimise an attack on its territory, after the Israeli foreign ministry protested to the United Nations about hostile activities from Iraqi militants. 

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a loose alliance of armed groups backed by Iran, has claimed almost daily drone attacks targeting Israel in recent months, which they say are in support of Hamas in the war n Gaza. 

Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on Monday called on the UN Security Council to pressure Iraq’s government to end attacks by “pro-Iranian militias” on Israel. 

“This evening I sent a letter to the president of the UN Security Council in which I called for immediate action regarding the activity of the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, whose territory is being used to attack Israel”, Saar said in a post on X that featured a copy of the letter. 

Warning that Israel has the right to defend itself under the UN charter, Saar said that Iraq “is responsible under international law to prevent the use of its territory as a base for attacks against other nations.” 

“Israel calls on the Iraqi government to fulfil this obligation and to take immediate action to halt and prevent these attacks,” Saar added. 

According to Saar Israel would take “all necessary measures to protect itself and its citizens” from Iran-backed militias. 

Shia paramilitary groups created in the chaos following the 2003 US invasion have forged an alliance called “Islamic Resistance of Iraq,” part of what Iran calls the “Axis of Resistance” to Israel. 

In a statement late on Tuesday, the Iraqi government rejected the Israeli complaint. 

“These allegations are merely excuses intended to justify planned aggression against Iraq,” it said, adding that it was already taking measures “to prevent the use of Iraqi territory for launching attacks”. 

During this year, the US military has launched several air strikes in Iraq and Syria against targets linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Iran-aligned militias, including Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).