Tebboune seeks to consolidate its power in Algeria

Algeria is holding early presidential elections on Saturday in which more than 24 million Algerians inside and outside the country are expected to vote. The current president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, is the big favourite in the elections against the Islamist Abdelaali Hassani and the socialist candidate Youcef Aouchiche.

The incumbent's main challenge is to increase turnout after winning in 2019 with 58% of the vote amid a record abstention rate of over 60%. Abstention in these elections is also likely to be low due to social discontent caused by the economic situation, unemployment and lack of confidence. 

Moreover, some Algerians see Tebboune as a puppet in the hands of the country's generals, on whom the president relies heavily to stay in power. Because of Tebboune's strong dependence on Algeria's generals, military influence in the government is growing, especially after the authorities passed a new decree allowing active and retired military personnel to hold high-level positions in the civilian administration. 

Young Algerians, in particular, are the most sceptical about Tebboune's presidential promises due to his poor performance during his first term in office and the lack of future prospects for the country. Aware of the importance of the youth vote, the president promised during the election campaign to create 450,000 new jobs and increase unemployment benefits.

According to data collected by AFP, young people under the age of 30 represent more than half of Algeria's population (some 23 million). One in three young people is unemployed, while the overall unemployment rate is about 12 per cent. Due to the lack of job opportunities, some educated people have to resort to low-paid jobs without insurance, such as delivering orders, transporting people or selling on the street.

This situation, as well as economic hardship, pushes hundreds of young people to cross the Mediterranean each year to reach Europe illegally.

The 78-year-old Tebboune's first term as president was marked by economic challenges, particularly the rising cost of living and inflation rates at the highest level in decades, according to World Bank data. However, Algeria's budget has also seen revenue windfalls due to higher gas prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Still, Algeria's total gross domestic product during 2023 reached about $239.9 billion, which means it lags far behind the world's leading economies.
 

Algeria, which relies heavily on the energy sector - especially oil and gas - as its main source of revenue, has seen inflation rates rise at a remarkable pace since Tebboune took office four years ago. In 2023 it recorded its highest rate in more than two decades, reaching 9.3 per cent.

During the first quarter of this year the rate fell to 5 per cent, although, according to the International Monetary Fund, inflation in Algeria remains ‘a cause for concern, due to rising food prices and continued loose monetary policy’. 

The financial organisation also warned of risks surrounding Algeria's medium-term economic outlook, referring to efforts to diversify the economy, improve the business climate and the ability to attract private investment.

International economic institutions have recommended that Algeria diversify its economy so as not to rely exclusively on oil and gas revenues by boosting private and foreign direct investment. According to the World Investment Report 2024 published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), foreign direct investment flows to Algeria have declined over the past five years, registering only about $84 million in 2023.

Another challenge facing Algerian society is political repression and ongoing human rights violations. In recent years Algeria has witnessed the authorities' dissolution of political parties, civil society organisations and independent media. This has been compounded by an increase in arbitrary arrests, such as those of 60 political activists, mostly from the Rassemblement pour la Culture et la Démocratie (RCD) party, last August.

Also, just a week before the elections, Fethi Ghares, a supporter of the Hirak protest movement and leader of the Social Democratic Movement party - banned last year - was arrested along with his wife for ‘insulting the president’.