Tensions rise in Tripoli after dismissal of head of top oil company

A new episode of armed violence in Tripoli has been on the verge of taking place. During Saturday night and early Sunday morning, several military convoys positioned themselves at the western gates of the Libyan capital, in the context of a new institutional crisis produced by the decision of the National Unity Government, led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibé, to replace the head of the country's main oil entity, Mustafa Sanalla.

According to The Libya Observer, several military vehicles from the city of Al Zawiya drove towards the government headquarters to force Dbeibé to reverse his decision. Security forces loyal to the Prime Minister were also deployed to cut them off, but a head-on clash was eventually prevented and, after negotiations, both sides withdrew. These convoys were reportedly affiliated with Hussein Zaeett, a local leader, and Mohamed Koshlaf, a militiaman sanctioned by the UN Security Council for his involvement in human trafficking. All other actors in the country have denied any connection.  

Dbeibé had previously ordered the dismissal of the board of governors of the National Oil Corp (NOC), replacing Sanalla, in office since 2014, with Farhat Bengdara, former governor of the Libyan Central Bank until the start of the civil war. However, Sanalla rebelled against the Tripoli government, rejecting his dismissal and claiming that Dbeibé's own mandate had expired. Dbeibé, for his part, warned that those who threatened to use violence and arms to regain their positions would be met by the outside.

Both the Higher Council of State, based in the Libyan capital, and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, at odds with each other in representing the country's parliamentary legitimacy, rejected Dbeibé's decision, and supported Sanalla. Subsequently, the NOC denounced in a communiqué that masked soldiers acting on behalf of Bengdara had occupied its headquarters, after which the new junta elected by Dbeibé was installed.

The latter came to power in 2021, during a peace process launched after the declaration of a "permanent ceasefire" at the end of 2020, following nine years of civil war that had de facto divided the country in two, east and west. Presidential and parliamentary elections were due to take place in December 2021, but were blocked due to a lack of agreement among the Arab nation's leading figures.

Faced with the political impasse, the Tobruk House of Representatives moved to elect an alternative government, led by Fathi Bashagha, who has since disputed power with Dbeibé, setting up his executive in the central city of Sirte. As early as May, militias loyal to Bashagha attempted to enter Tripoli, only to be repulsed by Dbeibé's forces. The Sirte executive has now denied any involvement in the new incident in the Libyan capital.

Oil is the lifeblood of the Libyan economy, and since 2011 the different sides in the civil war have fought for control of its revenues. The NOC has tried to maintain a balanced position, but after Dbeibé announced in April that he would use the spoils from oil exports to finance his government, a wave of alleged popular protests erupted in the country's oil-producing region, the so-called 'oil crescent', blocking the sector and forcing the NOC to reduce oil extraction on grounds of 'force majeure'.

Behind these demonstrations was reportedly Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the strongman in eastern Libya and since February an ally of Bashagha, with the aim of pressuring and forcing Dbeibé to resign. As a result, Libyan crude oil production plummeted to its lowest level in almost two years in June, producing some 865,000 barrels a day less than it would in normal conditions, which is costing the country heavy economic losses, as well as blackouts and supply problems. 

The appointment of Bengdara, a former ally of Haftar, has been interpreted as a gesture by Dbeibé to the marshal. On Friday, in one of his first actions as head of the NOC, Bengdara met with several tribal leaders of the oil crescent close to Haftar in Benghazi, the main city in the east of the country and the headquarters of the powerful military.

Following this meeting, the new Libyan oil kingpin announced the unblocking of supplies, both to the oilfields and to the ports, in a deal that may have had the sanction of both Dbeibé and Haftar. Tribal leaders, for their part, claimed that Sanalla's dismissal had satisfied several of their demands, despite Dbeibé's failure to resign. Moreover, on Monday, Marshal Haftar's chief of staff, General Abdel Razek al-Nadori, travelled to the Libyan capital to meet with his counterparts in the west of the country, in another sign of a possible rapprochement between Tripoli and Benghazi.

It is not yet clear whether this announcement will lead to a resumption of supply, which could, however, alleviate the global energy crisis by increasing the supply of crude oil amid upward price pressure driven by the end of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.