The Accords of Abraham consolidate as a tool for advancing regional peace
Despite the ongoing war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, the Abraham Accords continued to deepen in 2023, a year that saw numerous visits and high-level delegations. This is the conclusion reached by the Abraham Accords Peace Institute, as highlighted in its 2023 annual report. This document, which analyses the progress of ties between the signatory countries of this important pact, highlights numerous developments related to the so-called Agreement of the Century.
The Abraham Accords Institute for Peace recalls that the past year has seen groundbreaking bilateral and multilateral frameworks expanded, important interfaith developments, and unprecedented joint initiatives that brought together investors, experts, academics and women leaders from across the region.
Within the Abraham Accords, the partnership at the economic and trade level stands out notably. In this regard, according to data from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), trade between the signatory nations broke new records in 2023, exceeding 4 billion dollars, an increase of 16% year-on-year.
It should be noted that the Abraham Accords Institute for Peace only includes the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan as nations that normalised relations with Israel between September and December 2020. It therefore does not count trade with other Arab countries that had ties with Jerusalem previously.
In this regard, the Abraham Accords Peace Institute estimates that if trade between Israel and other Arab countries is added, such as Israeli exports of natural gas to Egypt and gas and water to Jordan, trade related to defence and services, software and cybernetics, the real value of Abraham Accords trade in 2023 will exceed 10 billion dollars.
The report highlights that, following the 7 October attack by Hamas and the subsequent Israeli military operation in Gaza, diplomatic ties remain stable, with trade declining by only 4%, compared to an 18% decline in Israel's overall trade.
In addition to trade, the countries' ties have strengthened in 2023 in other areas. Highlights of the past year include the inauguration of the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi, the entry into force of the UAE-Israel Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, the official opening of the Israeli embassy in Bahrain, the Connect2Innovate conference in Manama and the Women Connect to Innovate conference in Marrakech.
Also noteworthy is Israel's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and the increase in Israeli tourists to the countries of the Agreement. This increase has led airlines to establish new air routes between the signatory nations.
2023 was also marked by the launch or expansion of multilateral frameworks for collaboration, such as the meeting of the Negev Forum Working Groups and the multilateral dialogue between the heads of cybersecurity and national security advisors of the Accord countries.
Cooperation was also extended to other countries, such as India through the framework of the I2U2 Forum. Regional integration was significantly advanced by the launch of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) initiative at the G20 Summit in September 2023. The benefits of establishing an efficient land corridor connecting East and West through Israel and the Gulf became even more evident in light of the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels' attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Despite the obstacles and the war, the Abraham Accords remain in place
These attacks began in the aftermath of the 7 October Hamas massacre and the subsequent war between Israel and the terrorist group, a conflict that has not affected the diplomatic and trade ties of the countries that are party to the Abrahamic Accords.
These relations remained stable, while the leaders of each nation confirmed their commitment to the Accords. They were also able to take advantage of the trust built with Israel to coordinate humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Since the Hamas attack on 7 October, however, Israel's relations with Arab states have experienced challenges and high tensions. Leaders across the region have criticised Israel's war operation while expressing support for the Palestinian cause.
However, unlike during the Second Intifada or the first escalations of violence in Gaza, no Arab country has severed relations with Israel since the beginning of the war almost six months ago.
Equally, the war also had a strong negative impact on regional public opinion towards Israel, dampening people-to-people projects and slowing progress towards normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the next Arab country to join the Accords.
Targets for 2024
After the end of 2023, the Abraham Accords Peace Institute makes a series of recommendations for 2024. These include:
- Encourage active engagement and investment by allied and like-minded countries, especially the United States, to maintain the positive momentum of the Abraham Accords and counter the advances of negative actors.
- Harness the potential of multilateral initiatives to further advance regional cooperation and integration. Examples of multilateral cooperation could include IMEC, I2U2 and regional free trade areas or qualified industrial zones.
- Overcoming infrastructural, logistical, regulatory, security and geopolitical barriers that impede efficient land-based trade between West and East through Israel and the Gulf.
The body also stresses the importance of increasing the number of coordinated bilateral delegations from various sectors, expanding e-visa and visa waiver programmes with the aim of ensuring smooth travel at all transit points.
The Institute also calls for Israel's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara to be guaranteed and reflected in all official statements and communications.
On the other hand, progress should be made on measures to keep Sudan within the Abraham Accords despite the instability and violence in the country. Similarly, a wide range of options should be pursued to widen the circle of normalisation and cooperation, not only in the Gulf, but also in Africa and Southeast Asia.